Nigeria’s economy has been revised upward by 30 percent to ₦372.8 trillion ($243 billion) in 2024 following a comprehensive rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) methodology by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The new estimate exceeds the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) earlier forecast of $187.6 billion.
The upward revision follows the adoption of 2019 as the new base year for GDP calculations, replacing the previous 2010 base year.
The revision incorporates newly measured sectors including digital services and pension fund administrators, as well as adjustments to the weightings of real estate and other key segments.
“This is by far the most comprehensive rebasing ever carried out by the bureau,” said Semiu Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician General of the Federation. “A lot of work was done to ensure that we cover both formal and informal sector activities.”
GDP for 2023 was revised to ₦314 trillion from earlier estimates. The increase in economic size is expected to improve key fiscal indicators such as debt-to-GDP ratios and could support broader macroeconomic assessments.
Despite the upward revision, Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth-largest economy behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. The naira’s sharp depreciation — nearly 70% since the exchange rate liberalization in mid-2023 — has significantly reduced the dollar value of the economy.
According to Razia Khan, Head of Research for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, “around $250 billion seems much more credible,” noting that previous figures inflated by artificial exchange rates could have reached $800 billion.
The rebased data is not expected to affect the outcome of Tuesday’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, where the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 27.5%.
The CBN remains focused on containing inflation, which stood at 22.2% in June.
In terms of real output, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2024, compared with 3.8% in the preceding quarter.
Growth in the oil sector moderated to 1.87% from 4.7%, even though production levels exceeded Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the first time since 2022. The non-oil sector grew by 3.2%, down from 3.8% in Q4 2023.
The NBS noted that the updated methodology was informed by production and consumption patterns from 2019, enabling more accurate representation of sectoral contributions to GDP.
The revised model gives higher weight to underreported and emerging industries, particularly in services and technology.
While the rebasing alters Nigeria’s nominal economic figures, analysts do not expect a major shift in policy direction.
“The weak GDP showing from the first quarter was largely down to the whole series rebasing,” said Khan. “We do not expect it to make much difference to the CBN, which will be focused on inflation.”
The latest data provides policymakers, investors, and multilateral institutions with an updated view of Nigeria’s economic structure.
It also underscores the importance of statistical transparency and sectoral inclusivity in national economic planning.
