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Agriculture Well Below its Potential

Agriculture remains integral for developing economies, capable of stimulating growth across the non-oil economy via its broad potential value-chain interlinkages.

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Corn, Soybeans Decline As Favorable Weather May Boost U

Agriculture remains integral for developing economies, capable of stimulating growth across the non-oil economy via its broad potential value-chain interlinkages.

The latest national accounts released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that agriculture accounted for c.23% of total GDP. On a y/y basis, the sector grew by 1.2% y/y in Q2 ’22, compared with 3.2% in the previous quarter. Within the sector, crop production grew by 1.5% y/y and accounted for 90% of agriculture GDP. The forestry and fisheries segments grew by 1.3% y/y and 0.9% y/y respectively.

However, livestock contracted by -2.9% y/y.

Over the past eight quarters, agriculture has grown by an average of 2.2% y/y. The agricultural sector has been a beneficiary of substantial credit interventions by the CBN and state-owned development banks. At its July meeting, the CBN/MPC disclosed that total disbursements under the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP) amounted to N1trn as at end-July ’22, distributed to c.4.2 million smallholder farmers across the country.

Furthermore, the total disbursements under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) amounted to N744bn for 678 projects in agro-production and agro-processing. The CACS is among the better performing credit intervention programmes, given its positive repayment outcome (currently estimated at c.N700bn). Meanwhile, for ABP only 40% of mature loans have been repaid.

The misalignment between the growth figures recorded in this sector and intervention efforts can be partly attributed to the large informal economy, which is estimated to represent c.50% of the economy. The formalisation process is partly hampered by absence of bank accounts (by an estimated c.40% of Nigerians).

Given the rural nature of agriculture, a significant number of farmers are unbanked. This contributes to the difficulties in accessing funds. The CBN is gradually winding down special intervention funds, except those that are tagged as critical (relating to SMEs and the power industry). This points towards gradual tapering to maintain the price stability mandate.

It is worth highlighting that the sector is still saddled with unresolved insecurity and structural challenges that undercut investments. Some of these structural challenges include poor storage facilities, poor transport networks, low technology, among others. These challenges contribute to the risk-averse posture of some banks with regards to providing credit to players within the agriculture sector.

Although there have been laudable interventions by the CBN and the FGN, the sector still requires investments. Based on the latest data from the CBN, credit to the agricultural sector accounted for just 6.1% of total credit to the private sector, compared with sectors such as trade/general commerce (7.1%), finance, insurance and capital market (8.6%), oil and gas (16.1%) as well as manufacturing (17.4%) in August ‘22.

Based on another data source, the NBS, agriculture accounted for 3.7% (USD57.4m) of total capital importation in Q2 ’22 compared with 3.3% (USD28.9m) recorded in the corresponding period in 2021. This is an increase of 99% or USD28.5m.

To encourage increased investments into the sector, financial institutions should consider innovative financing solutions targeted at active players across the agricultural value chain. This should boost returns and profitability as well as stimulate economic activity within the sector.

Regarding trade, agriculture exports accounted for 2% of total trade, declining by -30% q/q to N371bn in Q2. We note that cashew nuts in shell, sesame seeds, standard quality cocoa beans, shelled cashew nuts, and natural cocoa butter featured as top export products in Q2 ‘22.

However, agricultural exports have remained below 5% of total exports over the past five years. There is still vast room to boost agro-related exports. This can be achieved through sustainable public-private partnerships that can potentially transform the agriculture sector to ensure that it realises its potential.

In addition, a boost to export receipts should assist with fx revenue diversification and by extension, support overall GDP growth.

As for agriculture imports, it accounted for 9% of total trade, growing by 5% q/q to N464bn in Q2. The growth in imports is unfavourable for imported food inflation. As at August, imported food prices is 17.9%, increasing by 54bps YTD. On the back of supply-chain constraints exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, prices of some agriculture commodities have spiked. Notably, the prices of maize and wheat have increased by 20% and 19% respectively YTD.

The Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement should support agricultural activity, create new regional markets for farmers and strengthen the agro-value chain. However, there should be increased focus on value chain interventions, especially around agriculture commodities that the Nigeria has comparative and competitive advantage.

Furthermore, to boost agricultural exports, there is a need to improve quality of products to meet and/or exceed the global standard. This can be achieved through sensitisation programmes geared towards educating exporters across the country. This should assist with solving poor packaging, and high level of chemicals (in the case of agricultural produce), improper labelling, insufficient information on nutritional content, presence of high level of pesticide residue, among others.

Overall, agriculture can potentially drive economic diversification in Nigeria. Improving the agriculture sector requires stakeholders to adopt a longterm view and commit to short-term sacrifices beneficial to expanding the sector.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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