Pound

Why Pounds Sterling Plunged to a 37-Year Low

Global economic uncertainty amid the decision to cut tax by over 50% despite the rising inflation rate has plunged the Pounds Sterling to a 37-year low against the United States Dollar on Monday.

Published

2 years ago

September 29, 2022

Samed Olukoya

Global economic uncertainty amid the decision to cut tax by over 50% despite the rising inflation rate has plunged the Pounds Sterling to a 37-year low against the United States Dollar on Monday.

On Friday, the new U.K. Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng announced the biggest tax cuts in 50 years and on Monday said he will keep cutting taxes to put money in the pocket of the people, support businesses and grow the economy, Investors King understands.

This, he planned to achieve by reducing government revenue via tax and simultaneously increase the money circulation despite the country’s 9.9% inflation rate in August.

He argued that increased growth would eventually compensate for the drop in revenue in the long term. He further stated that the almost £45 billion expected to be cut off from the nation’s tax revenue through 2027 under his policy would “turn the vicious cycle of stagnation into a virtuous cycle of growth”.

“We need a new approach for a new era, focused on growth,” he stated.

Global currency traders immediately started relinquishing their holdings of the Pounds Sterling for the United States Dollar and other currencies to avoid impending doom expected to hit the British Pound in the days ahead.

It is impossible to grow the economy as predicted by Kwarteng when prices of crude oil and other commodities remained high due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Also, with the United States Dollar trading at 1.1031 to the Pounds Sterling after plunging to 1.03325 on Monday, the cost of importing goods from the United States and buying goods quoted in U.S. Dollars will impact whatever money the Chancellor plans to put in the pocket of British people.

Similarly, exports from the United Kingdom would be cheaper for holders of foreign currencies and affect the profit of export-dependent businesses.

Basically, global investors are worried external factors would disrupt U.K policy given the current global happenings. Experts have started predicting that inflation could jump above 10.1% recorded in July, except the Bank of England called an emergency meeting ahead of the scheduled November 3 policy meeting to raise interest rates to curb jump in inflation predicted to result from Kwarteng policy.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Pound

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Pound Forecast: Sterling Expected to Reach $1.30 in Six Months

Published

5 months ago

December 11, 2023

Samed Olukoya

Financial titan Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the British Pound, anticipating a notable uptick.

The sterling, which has already showcased resilience throughout the year, is now expected to reach $1.30 within the next six months from its previous projection of $1.20.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reveals a shift in investor sentiment with a net bullish position on the pound recorded for the first time since September during the week ending December 5.

This suggests a growing confidence among investors regarding the currency’s future trajectory.

Despite the global economic landscape facing uncertainties and challenges, the pound has maintained its standing, holding steady around $1.2545 in Asian trading on Monday.

Year to date, the sterling has demonstrated remarkable strength, securing its position as the second-best-performing currency in the Group-of-10, surpassed only by the Swiss franc.

Goldman Sachs’ updated forecast aligns with the market’s inclination towards a more optimistic view of the pound.

Analysts at the financial giant attribute this shift to the expectation of a ‘soft landing’ strategy by the Bank of England, coupled with a more restrained approach to interest rate cuts compared to other major economies.

Swaps markets also echo Goldman’s outlook, with investors pricing in approximately 85 basis points of easing by the Bank of England, a notably lower estimate compared to anticipated cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

This positions the Bank of England as a less dovish outlier in the global economic landscape.

While the pound’s current trading environment indicates positivity, analysts caution that uncertainties persist.

Nevertheless, Fidelity International remains optimistic, predicting the pound to strengthen further, possibly reaching the $1.40 level in the coming year.

The revised forecast by Goldman Sachs not only underscores the evolving dynamics in currency markets but also reflects a broader market sentiment that sees the British Pound as a robust player in the face of economic challenges.

As the global financial landscape continues to navigate uncertainties, the pound’s potential ascent to $1.30 stands as a testament to its enduring strength and investor confidence.

Pound

Naira Plummets as UK Pound Surges to Over N1000 to £1 on Black Market

The exchange rate has reached over N1000 to £1, leaving many Nigerians worried about the future of their currency.

Published

10 months ago

July 11, 2023

Investors King

The Nigerian Naira has experienced a significant decline while the UK Pound has surged to unprecedented heights on the black market.

The exchange rate has reached over N1000 to £1, leaving many Nigerians worried about the future of their currency.

This alarming depreciation of the Naira against the UK Pound has been observed over the past few days, marking a distressing trend for the country’s economy.

The persistent surge in demand for the UK Pound has been a significant driving force behind this ongoing depreciation as Nigerians continue to seek opportunities and stability abroad, the demand for foreign currencies, especially the Pound, has soared.

This mounting pressure on the Naira has contributed to its decline and weakened its value against major currencies.

The depreciation of the Naira against the Pound is just one aspect of a larger issue within Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. The partial float of the Naira has redirected demand away from official rates for Personal Travel Allowance (PTA) and Business Travel Allowance (BTA), prompting more individuals to turn to the black market.

The widening gap between official and black-market exchange rates is a growing concern for analysts, as it may put additional pressure on the country’s official exchange rate market. If the supply of foreign currencies does not improve and the disparity continues to widen, further depreciation of the Naira can be expected.

Pound

Pound to Naira Exchange Rate Hits Record Low of N1005 at Black Market

Published

1 year ago

November 7, 2022

Samed Olukoya

The Naira continues its decline against global counterparts as the local currency exchanged at N1005 to a British Pound Sterling on Sunday at the black market.

Against the United States Dollar, the Nigerian Naira traded at about N815 while a unit of Euro common currency was exchanged at N870 to a Naira.

At the interbank forex section, the Nigerian Naira slid to N440.26 against the United States Dollar and dipped marginally against the Euro common currency to N431.2787. Naira, however, appreciated against the Pound to N493.2673.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other multilateral financial institutions have said the huge difference between the black market and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) managed interbank section is the bane of Nigeria’s currency racketeering.

In October 2021, Vice President Osibanjo explained why the forex differential is the reason why Nigeria continues to struggle with low capital importation and investment.

According to him, “As for the exchange rate, I think we need to move our rates to [be] as reflective of the market as possible. This, in my own respective view, is the only way to improve supply,” the vice president said.

“We can’t get new dollars into the system, where the exchange rate is artificially low. And everyone knows by how much our reserves can grow. I’m convinced that the demand management strategy currently being adopted by the CBN needs a rethink, and that is just my view.

“Anyway, all those are issues that when the CBN governor has time to address, he will be able to address in full.”

Crude Oil

Crude oil opened lower on Monday following reports that China is planning to up COVID-19 restrictions in an effort to curb the rising number of victims.

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian type of oil, has since pared losses to $98.66 a barrel at 11:20 am, up from $97 it opened when the news of Chinese Covid-19 was made public.