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Global Inflation Forecast to Rise to 7.5% by the End of 2022

Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

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Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

GlobalData has raised its global inflation rate forecast for the end of 2022 by 2.7 percentage points, reaching 7.5%*. The leading data and analytics company says the decision was driven by the cost-of-living crisis, soaring fuel and energy costs, and the global supply chain disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The original forecast, made in February, expected an inflation rate of 4.8% by the end of 2022.

GlobalData’s Country Analytics database, reveals that the US Federal Reserve hiked its policy rate three times in the period January 2022 to June 2022, by a total of 225 basis points, to reach 2.25%—with further rate hikes anticipated in the coming months. Meanwhile, Brazil increased its key policy rate by 400 basis points*** (bps), India by 90 bps, Argentina by 1,200 bps, Russia by 100 bps, Canada by 125 bps, the UK by 100 bps, the UAE by 148 bps, and South Korea by 50 bps.

Bindi Patel, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “A Fed policy rate hike will make emerging markets a less attractive destination for investment. Consequently, emerging and developing economies are expected to be impacted the most, since they are not only facing high inflation rates but also a depreciation in their local currency—ultimately resulting in foreign direct investment outflows.”

Middle East

GlobalData forecasts the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region’s inflation rate to remain high at 18.7% in 2022, an upward revision from 10.9% in February 2022. Countries that are expected to witness the highest inflation rate increases in the region in 2022 are Türkiye (63.9%), Iran (32.8%), and Nigeria (16.9%). In June 2022, Saudi Arabia recorded an inflation rate of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in May 2022, due to a rise in the price of food (4.7%) and transport (2.5%).

Europe

In Europe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the number of sanctions imposed on Russia have exacerbated pressures on already strained global supply chains. GlobalData has revised its 2022 inflation rate projections for Europe upward to 9.4% in July 2022. Ukraine (21.5%), Russia (16.9%), Poland (13.1%), the Czech Republic (14%), Belgium (8.9%), and the Netherlands (8%) are estimated to have the highest inflation level in the region in 2022, according to GlobalData.

Americas

The conflict in Ukraine is also forecast to drive inflation rates to record highs in the Americas’ largest economies, including the US (7.7%), Canada (6.7%), Brazil (9.6%), Argentina (59.3%), Chile (10%), and Colombia (8.8%) in 2022.

The increase in inflation was caused by a surge in food and energy prices. In June 2022, the inflation rate in the US was recorded at 9.1%, the highest since November 1981, driven by a rise in the prices of oil (98.5%), gasoline (59.9%), and food (10.4%).

GlobalData forecasts that the inflation rate in the Americas region is expected to rise to 7.5% by the end 2022, based on the forecast made in July 2022, which is a sharp upward revision from the 4.4% forecast, made in February 2022.

Asia-Pacific

The inflation rate in the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to rise to 6.6% in 2022, a 2.7 percentage point upward revision from its earlier forecast and a rise from 2.7% in 2021. Sri Lanka (29.7%), Turkmenistan (17.5%), and Mongolia (15.5%) are expected to have the highest inflation levels in the region in 2022. Inflation rate projections for India and China by the end of 2022 have been revised upward to 6.8% and 2.4%, respectively, from GlobalData’s earlier forecast of a respective 5.3% and 2.1%.

Inflation rate in Sri Lanka skyrocketed to 54.6% in June 2022, with the cost of food and transport rising by 80.1% and 128%, respectively, on an annual basis. India recorded an annual inflation rate of 7% due to a year-on-year (YoY) rise in the prices of food (7.8%) and fuel and electricity (10.4%).

Patel concludes: “Governments across the globe must focus on structural reforms to deliver growth in the medium term while maintaining tight control of monetary policy.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

2025: The End of Gas Flaring

The Federal Government through the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has inaugurated a 12-member ‘Gas Flare Commercialization Program Team’ to manage the nation’s gas flaring.

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gas flaring

The Federal Government through the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has inaugurated a 12-member ‘Gas Flare Commercialization Program Team’ to manage the nation’s gas flaring.

According to Engineer Gbenga Komolafe, the Chief Executive of NUPRC, gas flaring in the oil gas industry has been a continuous menace that needs to be eradicated because of its adverse effect on the people’s health, the Environment and also a major resource waste and value erosion to the country.

Gbenga mentioned that to monetize gas resources is to take a positive step toward securing energy security, especially in this period of global energy transition. He said as a nation, Nigeria needs to ensure it harnesses every available gas resource in other to create value.

He declared that the NUPRC is resuming the procedure of issuing flare sites to competent technical companies, after a complete bidding process.

This process is crucial and important in respect of the direction of the federal government’s policy to ensure every gas resource is properly developed for national development.

He laid emphasis that the wasteful disposal of natural gas is not only hazardous with serious health and environmental consequences but also a waste of resource and value to Nigeria.

In addition to this, he stated that the FG declared the period 2021 to 2030 as the DECADE OF GAS, a period which the country must change direction from oil centered exploitation to a gas-focused industrial development.

Although the World Bank has set 2030 as the target year to end gas flaring, Nigeria has set the country’s deadline tp 2025.

President Muhammadu Buhari made a commitment towards the Paris Agreement during the COP26 Leaders’ Summit to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions by 2060,” he said.

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Economy

China Reaffirms Commitment to Maintaining Cooperation With Africa

Wu- Peng, has reaffirmed China’s commitment to maintaining cooperation with Africa

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China Nigeria

The director general of the ministry of foreign affairs of China, Wu- Peng, has reaffirmed China’s commitment to maintaining cooperation with Africa.

Wu-Peng disclosed this at a meeting held with African journalists under the auspices of the China Africa Press Centre (CAPC) in June 2022 in Beijing.

Quoting the president of China, Xi Jinping, Wu-Peng said China will work hand in hand with African countries to implement linked programs in the next three years”.

According to Wu-Peng, this includes programs related to the medical and health sector, poverty alleviation, agricultural growth and promoting investments.

We’re still fighting to contain Covid-19 since the outbreak of the pandemic, China has so far provided about 260 million doses of vaccines to 55 African countries and African Union,” the Director General said.

He also mentioned that China had also made provision for about 120 batches of emergency supplies to African countries and they all have diplomatic relations with China and also contributed to Africa’s early recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

China has already constructed the African CDC in Addis Ababa and it will be completed in 2023.

The other program I would like to make mention is the agricultural sector. When FOCAC was held in 2021, there was no Russia-Ukraine crisis, yet we focus and invested in Agriculture in Africa.

The reason been, we believe in the potential of Agriculture in Africa, the growth and development is huge, there are still lots of arid land in Africa, Wu-Peng stated.

Unfortunately, Africans still have to import grapes from the outside which costs a lot of currency and actually damages Africa’s international balance sheet.”

He said that the failure to prioritize agriculture could obstruct fast economic growth in Africa, suggesting that more should be done through Public Private Partnership (PPP) to ensure food security.

The director general laid emphasis on the need for proper implementation of the report from the FOCAC meetings to bring to life the realization of set goals and objectives.

“This does not make sense, you have lands, you have labor forces, I think we just need the right policy to promote price investments in industrial large scale farms to improve our food security.

Why this is has become very important is due to the Ukraine crisis, food prices globally surged and going forward, we must finish construction of the project in the nearest future.

African governments have already noticed developments of agriculture is a huge priority to deal with the crisis of hike in food prices, we want Africas countries to have up to date plans from FOCAC meetings and the findings of the results.

“Usually, when we have FOCAC meetings we just produce documents, we need more concrete actions, we must be focused,” the director general said.

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Economy

Inflation Rises to 17 Year High in Nigeria

Inflation rate, grew at a 19.64% rate in July, the highest since September 2005 when inflation peaked at 24.32%

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consumer prices

Prices of goods and services rose to a 17-year-high in Africa’s largest economy Nigeria in the month of July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the inflation rate, grew at a 19.64% rate in July, the highest since September 2005 when inflation peaked at 24.32%. This was 1.04% higher than the 18.60% recorded in June 2022.

On a monthly basis, inflation expanded by 1.817%, an increase of 0.001% from 1.816% filed in June 2022.

As expected, food inflation also grew by 0.99% from 21.03% year-on-year in July 2021 to 22.02% in July 2022. According to NBS, the increase in the food sub-index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food products n.e.c, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fish, oil, and fat.

On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in July was 2.04%, this was a 0.01% insignificant decline compared to the rate recorded in June 2022 (2.05%). This decline is attributed to a reduction in the prices of some food items like Tubers, Maize, Garri, and Vegetables.

Rising economic uncertainties amid a series of policy changes like the increase in duty on imported raw materials, high electricity tariffs,  fuel, etc needed to manufacture the necessary food items are responsible for the persistent increase in inflation.

Also, the extended decline in the value of the Nigerian Naira against its global counterparts has made foreign goods or imported goods expensive for Nigerians. Therefore, manufacturing companies are now passing the increase to final consumers already struggling with low earnings and a high unemployment rate.

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