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Global Inflation Forecast to Rise to 7.5% by the End of 2022

Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

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Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

GlobalData has raised its global inflation rate forecast for the end of 2022 by 2.7 percentage points, reaching 7.5%*. The leading data and analytics company says the decision was driven by the cost-of-living crisis, soaring fuel and energy costs, and the global supply chain disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The original forecast, made in February, expected an inflation rate of 4.8% by the end of 2022.

GlobalData’s Country Analytics database, reveals that the US Federal Reserve hiked its policy rate three times in the period January 2022 to June 2022, by a total of 225 basis points, to reach 2.25%—with further rate hikes anticipated in the coming months. Meanwhile, Brazil increased its key policy rate by 400 basis points*** (bps), India by 90 bps, Argentina by 1,200 bps, Russia by 100 bps, Canada by 125 bps, the UK by 100 bps, the UAE by 148 bps, and South Korea by 50 bps.

Bindi Patel, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “A Fed policy rate hike will make emerging markets a less attractive destination for investment. Consequently, emerging and developing economies are expected to be impacted the most, since they are not only facing high inflation rates but also a depreciation in their local currency—ultimately resulting in foreign direct investment outflows.”

Middle East

GlobalData forecasts the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region’s inflation rate to remain high at 18.7% in 2022, an upward revision from 10.9% in February 2022. Countries that are expected to witness the highest inflation rate increases in the region in 2022 are Türkiye (63.9%), Iran (32.8%), and Nigeria (16.9%). In June 2022, Saudi Arabia recorded an inflation rate of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in May 2022, due to a rise in the price of food (4.7%) and transport (2.5%).

Europe

In Europe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the number of sanctions imposed on Russia have exacerbated pressures on already strained global supply chains. GlobalData has revised its 2022 inflation rate projections for Europe upward to 9.4% in July 2022. Ukraine (21.5%), Russia (16.9%), Poland (13.1%), the Czech Republic (14%), Belgium (8.9%), and the Netherlands (8%) are estimated to have the highest inflation level in the region in 2022, according to GlobalData.

Americas

The conflict in Ukraine is also forecast to drive inflation rates to record highs in the Americas’ largest economies, including the US (7.7%), Canada (6.7%), Brazil (9.6%), Argentina (59.3%), Chile (10%), and Colombia (8.8%) in 2022.

The increase in inflation was caused by a surge in food and energy prices. In June 2022, the inflation rate in the US was recorded at 9.1%, the highest since November 1981, driven by a rise in the prices of oil (98.5%), gasoline (59.9%), and food (10.4%).

GlobalData forecasts that the inflation rate in the Americas region is expected to rise to 7.5% by the end 2022, based on the forecast made in July 2022, which is a sharp upward revision from the 4.4% forecast, made in February 2022.

Asia-Pacific

The inflation rate in the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to rise to 6.6% in 2022, a 2.7 percentage point upward revision from its earlier forecast and a rise from 2.7% in 2021. Sri Lanka (29.7%), Turkmenistan (17.5%), and Mongolia (15.5%) are expected to have the highest inflation levels in the region in 2022. Inflation rate projections for India and China by the end of 2022 have been revised upward to 6.8% and 2.4%, respectively, from GlobalData’s earlier forecast of a respective 5.3% and 2.1%.

Inflation rate in Sri Lanka skyrocketed to 54.6% in June 2022, with the cost of food and transport rising by 80.1% and 128%, respectively, on an annual basis. India recorded an annual inflation rate of 7% due to a year-on-year (YoY) rise in the prices of food (7.8%) and fuel and electricity (10.4%).

Patel concludes: “Governments across the globe must focus on structural reforms to deliver growth in the medium term while maintaining tight control of monetary policy.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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Sanwo-Olu Unveils Lagos Red Line Rail For Commercial Operations

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The Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has officially unveiled the LMRT Red Line for commercial operations.

The governor said the Red Line is the second rail system to become operational in less than two years in the state.

The 27-kilometre Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado.

The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as the schedule is increased, providing a viable means of commuting.

In a post on his verified social media handles on Tuesday, Sanwo-Olu warned against vandalisation of the project, saying his government wouldn’t tolerate the destruction of public property.

Sanwo-Olu wrote, “Dear Lagosians, today marks the launch of commercial operations of the LMRT Red Line, commencing passenger services from Agbado to Oyingbo.

“We’re on a mission to keep Lagos moving, and the Red Line is a key part of our vision to create a seamlessly connected city. It is also our second rail system to become operational in less than two years.

“Spanning 27, the Red Line has eight stations at Oyingbo, Yaba, Mushin, Oshodi, Ikeja, Agege, Iju, and Agbado. The train service is projected to transport about 500,000 Lagosians daily as we ramp up the schedule and provide a viable means of commuting.”

He added that daily passenger services will depart from Agbado at 6:00 AM, with the second train leaving Iju Station at 7:30 AM.

“Ensure you have your Cowry Card ready to board,” he noted.

He urged residents to treat the project with the respect it deserves, stressing that “vandalism or disruptions will not be tolerated.”

He said, “Together, we can ensure that our trains remain a safe and enjoyable experience for everyone.”

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