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Global Inflation Forecast to Rise to 7.5% by the End of 2022

Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

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Global inflation forecast to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2022, driven by food, fuel, energy, and supply chain disruption, observes GlobalData.

GlobalData has raised its global inflation rate forecast for the end of 2022 by 2.7 percentage points, reaching 7.5%*. The leading data and analytics company says the decision was driven by the cost-of-living crisis, soaring fuel and energy costs, and the global supply chain disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. The original forecast, made in February, expected an inflation rate of 4.8% by the end of 2022.

GlobalData’s Country Analytics database, reveals that the US Federal Reserve hiked its policy rate three times in the period January 2022 to June 2022, by a total of 225 basis points, to reach 2.25%—with further rate hikes anticipated in the coming months. Meanwhile, Brazil increased its key policy rate by 400 basis points*** (bps), India by 90 bps, Argentina by 1,200 bps, Russia by 100 bps, Canada by 125 bps, the UK by 100 bps, the UAE by 148 bps, and South Korea by 50 bps.

Bindi Patel, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “A Fed policy rate hike will make emerging markets a less attractive destination for investment. Consequently, emerging and developing economies are expected to be impacted the most, since they are not only facing high inflation rates but also a depreciation in their local currency—ultimately resulting in foreign direct investment outflows.”

Middle East

GlobalData forecasts the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region’s inflation rate to remain high at 18.7% in 2022, an upward revision from 10.9% in February 2022. Countries that are expected to witness the highest inflation rate increases in the region in 2022 are Türkiye (63.9%), Iran (32.8%), and Nigeria (16.9%). In June 2022, Saudi Arabia recorded an inflation rate of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in May 2022, due to a rise in the price of food (4.7%) and transport (2.5%).

Europe

In Europe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the number of sanctions imposed on Russia have exacerbated pressures on already strained global supply chains. GlobalData has revised its 2022 inflation rate projections for Europe upward to 9.4% in July 2022. Ukraine (21.5%), Russia (16.9%), Poland (13.1%), the Czech Republic (14%), Belgium (8.9%), and the Netherlands (8%) are estimated to have the highest inflation level in the region in 2022, according to GlobalData.

Americas

The conflict in Ukraine is also forecast to drive inflation rates to record highs in the Americas’ largest economies, including the US (7.7%), Canada (6.7%), Brazil (9.6%), Argentina (59.3%), Chile (10%), and Colombia (8.8%) in 2022.

The increase in inflation was caused by a surge in food and energy prices. In June 2022, the inflation rate in the US was recorded at 9.1%, the highest since November 1981, driven by a rise in the prices of oil (98.5%), gasoline (59.9%), and food (10.4%).

GlobalData forecasts that the inflation rate in the Americas region is expected to rise to 7.5% by the end 2022, based on the forecast made in July 2022, which is a sharp upward revision from the 4.4% forecast, made in February 2022.

Asia-Pacific

The inflation rate in the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to rise to 6.6% in 2022, a 2.7 percentage point upward revision from its earlier forecast and a rise from 2.7% in 2021. Sri Lanka (29.7%), Turkmenistan (17.5%), and Mongolia (15.5%) are expected to have the highest inflation levels in the region in 2022. Inflation rate projections for India and China by the end of 2022 have been revised upward to 6.8% and 2.4%, respectively, from GlobalData’s earlier forecast of a respective 5.3% and 2.1%.

Inflation rate in Sri Lanka skyrocketed to 54.6% in June 2022, with the cost of food and transport rising by 80.1% and 128%, respectively, on an annual basis. India recorded an annual inflation rate of 7% due to a year-on-year (YoY) rise in the prices of food (7.8%) and fuel and electricity (10.4%).

Patel concludes: “Governments across the globe must focus on structural reforms to deliver growth in the medium term while maintaining tight control of monetary policy.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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