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Sub-optimal Demand at DMO’s Latest Bond Auction

Demand was considerably lower, as the DMO secured a total bid of N142.3bn (USD331.6m)

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The DMO held its monthly auction of FGN bonds on Monday. It offered N225bn but raised N123.9bn (USD288.7m) through re-openings of the 2025, 2032 and 2042 FGN bonds.

Demand was considerably lower, as the DMO secured a total bid of N142.3bn (USD331.6m). The bids for the 3, 10 and 20-year benchmarks were allotted at the marginal rates of 11.0% (previously; 10.1%), 13.0% (previously; 12.5%) and 13.7% (previously; 13.2%) respectively. The DMO has a domestic funding target of N3.53trn to finance the projected deficit of N7.35trn in the FGN’s 2022 budget.

The relatively lower demand at the auction is reflective of tight system liquidity which can be partly attributed to CBN’s continuous use of the discretionary Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) debits.

According to the MPC/CBN, the use of discretionary CRR debits are vital in controlling excess liquidity. We note that system liquidity stood at -N169.5bn as at 18 July ‘22.

Investors’ apathy towards the current level of FGN bond yields is another reason for weaker demand. The domestic fixed income market is currently dominated by local investors and real interest rates have remained negative. The headline inflation stood at 18.60% y/y in June ‘22. This is the highest headline inflation rate since January ‘17.

At its latest meeting held yesterday, the monetary policy committee raised the monetary policy rate (MPR) from 13% to 14%. The committee expects this additional tightening to assist with moderating rising inflation and narrow the real interest rate gap.

For Q3, the DMO plans to raise between N630bn – N720bn through FGN bonds. The debt management office had set out to raise between N1.7trn – N1.9trn by end-Q3 ’22.

However, year-to-date, it has raised N1.9trn. Therefore, the DMO is likely to exceed its borrowing target for FGN bonds by end -Q3 ’22. Allowing for the smaller amounts which the FGN raises from the sale of other debt instruments such as NTBs and savings bonds, it is on track pro rata to meet the domestic borrowing target for the year.

In the secondary market for FGN bonds, YTD the average yield has declined by 8bps. In the near term, we expect yields to trend upward on the back of increased supply by the FGN. On a separate note, the international debt market is now more expensive for emerging economies like Nigeria amid monetary policy tightening by advanced economies.

We see mid-curve FGN bond yields around 11.5% – 12.7% and yields at the longer-end of the curve between 12.5% – 13.7% over the next one month. However, the level of liquidity (influenced by items such as auctions, CRR debits/refunds, bond/NTB maturities, coupon payments and FAAC allocation) would also impact the movement in yields.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Bonds

Investor Appetite Wanes as FG Bond Auction Sees Lowest Participation of the Year

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Subscription for the Federal Government bond auction on May 13, 2024 was the lowest so far in 2024.

Despite the subdued interest, the government successfully raised N380.76 billion, albeit experiencing a 39 per cent reduction compared to the proceeds from the previous month’s auction.

The aggregate subscription across all tenors amounted to N551.316 billion, representing a decrease from the N920.08 billion recorded in the preceding month.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) reported a non-competitive allotment of N301.30 billion.

The auction featured various bond tenors with the new 9-year bond taking center stage. This bond attracted substantial interest, garnering N373.875 billion in subscriptions.

Of this amount, N285.124 billion was allotted, inclusive of N179.00 billion under non-competitive bids.

The bids ranged from 16.95 per cent to 22.00 per cent, eventually settling at a marginal rate of 19.89 per cent.

Meanwhile, the 7-year bond received bids totaling N76.875 billion, with N62.975 billion allotted. Non-competitive allotments accounted for N85.80 billion.

The bids ranged from 17.20 per cent to 20.80 per cent, resulting in a final marginal rate of 19.74 per cent.

In addition, the 5-year bond attracted bids amounting to N100.56 billion, with an allotment of N32.67 billion.

An additional N36.500 billion was allocated through non-competitive bids. Bids spanned from 17.50 per cent to 21.00 per cent, and the marginal rate was set at 19.29 per cent.

The subdued subscription level in May 2024 indicates a lack of robust investor participation in government bonds compared to previous auctions.

This decline in investor interest could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing market conditions, economic uncertainties, and evolving investment preferences.

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African ESG Bond Issuance Surges to $4.4bn in 2024

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The landscape of sustainable investment in Africa is experiencing a significant upswing as the issuance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) bonds by African entities hit $4.4 billion in 2024.

This substantial increase highlights a growing commitment among African institutions to raise funds for investments aligned with ESG principles.

The surge in ESG bond issuance underscores a broader trend towards responsible and sustainable investing on the continent.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) emerges as a key player in this segment, having successfully issued social bonds worth $2 billion in January 2024, in addition to hybrid sustainable bonds amounting to $750 million.

Joining the AfDB in this endeavor is the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), which, with the support of the African Export-Import Bank, has issued bonds totaling €500 million.

This momentum in the ESG bond market has propelled financial institutions like BNP Paribas, JPMorgan, and Bank of America Securities into leading positions as arrangers for such bonds on the continent.

The surge in ESG bond issuance reflects a broader global trend towards sustainable finance, with the total value of emissions of this kind expected to reach $950 billion in 2024, according to Moody’s.

It is evident that ESG bonds are gaining traction in Africa, supported by development finance institutions and initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth and development across the continent.

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Coinbase Unveils $1 Billion Convertible Bond Plan to Fuel Growth

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Coinbase Global, Inc., the renowned cryptocurrency exchange platform, has announced its strategic move to bolster its financial position by initiating a private sale of $1 billion in convertible senior notes.

The bonds, set to mature in 2030, come with an additional provision allowing initial buyers to acquire an extra $150 million to address potential over-allotments.

This ambitious plan, aimed at fortifying Coinbase’s financial foundation, underscores the company’s commitment to fostering growth and expansion in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

The proceeds from the convertible bond issuance are earmarked for “working capital and capital expenditures,” reflecting Coinbase’s strategic vision to drive innovation and enhance its market presence.

Convertible bonds offer a unique avenue for Coinbase to raise capital, providing investors with the flexibility to convert their holdings into company stock.

This approach not only diversifies Coinbase’s funding sources but also potentially reduces interest costs compared to traditional debt financing methods.

The decision to opt for convertible bonds aligns with Coinbase’s strategy to navigate market dynamics effectively while maximizing shareholder value.

Amidst recent operational challenges, including glitches during bitcoin’s price surges, Coinbase remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities.

Coinbase’s move to secure $1 billion through convertible bonds underscores its confidence in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency industry.

As the company continues to innovate and adapt to market trends, investors are poised to witness Coinbase’s strategic vision translate into sustained growth and value creation in the dynamic world of digital assets.

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