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Better Growth Expectations for 2022 Per the World Bank – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Lagos Nigeria - Investors King

Today we shed some light on the recently published Nigeria Development Update by the World Bank titled “The Continuing Urgency of Business Unusual”. The publication provides an overview of recent social and economic developments in Nigeria, as well as forward-thinking views and recommendations on select economic and policy challenges.

The report covers the weakening macroeconomic indicators despite higher oil prices and an analysis on economic and policy reforms that could support macroeconomic stability in the long-term.

For national output, the World Bank expects growth at 3.4% y/y and 3.2% y/y in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The improvement in growth prospects is on the back of higher oil prices as well as sustained growth in agriculture and a robust recovery in services (mainly telecommunications, and financial services). These sectors posted growth above prepandemic levels in recent quarters. The 3.4% y/y GDP growth forecast is in line with our projection for same indicator in 2022.

Although growth prospects have improved, domestic macroeconomic indicators have weakened. This can be attributed to high inflation, heightened global risks on the back of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the impact of monetary tightening by central banks in advanced economies, national security and policy direction concerns due to the upcoming 2023 elections.

Based on the report, between 2020 – 2021, the “inflation shock” alone is estimated to have pushed c.8 million more Nigerians below the poverty line. The food inflation rate has been a major driver of Nigeria’s headline inflation. Given its importance in the production of staples such as bread and pasta, the shortage of wheat triggered by the Russia-Ukraine crisis has contributed to steady upticks in food inflation. As at April ‘22, the price of wheat flour had
increased by 36% y/y.

The World Bank provides some recommendations to combat rising inflation in the shortterm. They include – (i) fully reopen land borders to trade and remove fx and import restrictions on staple foods and medicines (ii) signal the CBN’s commitment to price stability as the primary goal and reduce subsidized lending to medium and large firms (iii) reduce CBN overdrafts for fiscal deficit financing to their legal limit (5% of previous year’s actual collected revenue). Our estimate for inflation for end-2022 is 20.6% y/y.

On fiscal, despite higher oil price, the World Bank expects oil revenue to be lower in 2022. This is mainly due to increased petrol subsidy payment and low oil production. The estimated total cost of petrol subsidy was revised from the initial N443bn to N4trn this year. Based on data from the NBS, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in Q1 ’22 was 1.5mbpd, below the revised FGN 2022 budget oil production benchmark of 1.6mbpd.
Nigeria’s oil production has been hampered by production shut-ins as a result of crude oil theft, vandalism, prolonged repairs, and community issues.

Regarding trade, the report highlights Nigeria’s path towards greater integration and policy reform through the active participation in African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) negotiations and its efforts to develop a domestic implementation plan. The World Bank notes that the AfCFTA implementation will require substantial preparation and engagement across sub nationals, the private sector, and other stakeholders.

From our vantage point, to maximise the benefits of the AfCFTA agreement, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector needs to be strengthened. The cost of transportation, power and logistics which is fundamental to production and competitiveness is significantly high and deepens cost of production for manufacturers.

Furthermore, local manufacturers need to significantly improve their service delivery and product standards if they are to be competitive in a burgeoning intra-continental marketplace. Nigeria’s manufacturing sector accounts for c.10% of total GDP. This compares with 11% in South Africa, 15% in Egypt and 13% in Ghana. Similar to the views expressed in this World Bank update report, we note that a handful of reforms are essential to boost domestic manufacturing competitiveness.

These include creating an enabling regulatory environment for technology to be incorporated in trade operations; developing a cohesive strategy to formalise the informal sector which should also focus on reducing government bureaucracies, improving fiscal policies and accountability, while providing training, technology, and access to financial services. Strengthening customs and border patrol to minimize smuggling and dumping of substandard products is also important.

The World Bank highlights the importance of further continental integration to enhance competitiveness of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. Furthermore, given the growing trend of investors seeking green opportunities, the report suggests that Nigeria can remain competitive by reducing gas flaring, venting, and fugitive methane emissions.

Based on the report, Nigeria’s remittance flows has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. In 2021, remittances to Nigeria grew by 11.2% to USD19bn.

Since some transactions pass through informal channels, the actual amount of remittance flows into the country is arguably higher. We note that there was increased usage of official channels by Nigerians in diaspora in 2021, this contributed to the growth recorded in remittance inflow.

Furthermore, it is likely that the CBN’s Naira-4-Dollar policy assisted with boosting remittances in the period under review. There was a strong need among migrants to assist their respective families in Nigeria due to the economic downturn triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, this also contributed to remittance growth during this period. According to local media, 70% of remittances from Nigerians in the diaspora went into family support, while 30% was channelled towards investments in 2021.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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UBA Rewards 30 Lucky Customers in Legacy Promo

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As part of ongoing activities to commemorate its 75th anniversary,  United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, has rewarded 30 loyal customers with over N17 million in the just concluded draw for August.

The winners were announced following a transparent draw conducted  at the bank’s headquarters, which was streamed live on YouTube. Representatives from the National Lottery Regulatory Commission (NLRC) were invited to oversee the proceedings, ensuring fairness and compliance with regulations.

The bank said in a statement  that  inthe top tier, 10 lucky bumper account holders: Joshua Izenobor, Chigozie Victor Abel, Cornelius Peter Nwankwo, Joy Esele Asibor, Mohammed Abubakar, Marachi Jenifer Kevin, Chidinma J. Okoronkwo, Saidu Ahmadu, Philomena Ezekiel, and Peace Ogechi Idoko, emerged as winners of N1 million each.

UBA explained that in the second category, another group of 10 lucky customers were rewarded with N500,000 each. The beneficiaries of this prize are: Elizabeth Warekoromor, Deborah Ijeoma Simon, Prince Chukwuamago, Yohanna Cyrus, Aishatu Aliyu, Djachi Ben-Ikezam, Tibebi Glory Esiteh, Emmanuel C. Udekwe, Ozima Friday Asiku, and Beauty Danasabe.

The third category saw 10 more lucky account holders each receiving N250,000. These winners include: Olusegun Oke, Salisu Adamu, Sola Deborah Adeyeye, Chidozie Nwachukwu, Gloria Abimaje, Anyiwe Stephen Ifeanyi, Kehinde F Adefemiwa, Oluwakemi Olushola Olayande, Adamu Hajara Adamu, and Ruth Adugba

Group Head of Retail & Digital Banking,  UBA, Shamsideen Fashola, who congratulated all 30 winners after the draw,  encouraged others to keep saving for a chance to win in the next edition, adding that the bank plans to reward 75 winners in each of the three categories, with a total of 195 more customers to be selected in the coming months.

“This is just the beginning of our legacy promo draw, as there are still many more prizes to be won in subsequent monthly draws. These draws are purely transparent, and the next millionaire could just be you. We encourage our loyal customers to follow the stated guidelines to win, and they could just be the next millionaire,” Fashola said.

Group Head of Marketing and Corporate Communications, UBA,  Alero Ladipo, said that the bank is not conducting the draw for profit purposes but to ensure that its customers feel a sense of belonging.

“This initiative is part of UBA’s ongoing efforts to appreciate its customers and encourage a savings culture among our account holders. The UBA Legacy Promo is part of our CSR initiative to give back to society,” Ladipo said.

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Leading African Fund Managers Will Gather for the Third Time at Oxford’s Saïd Business School to boost Africa’s rising tech potential

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the Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs)

From 9 to 13 September 2024, Boost Africa and AfricaGrow will host 44 leading fund managers from 33 African venture capital (VC) funds, including Partech, AfricInvest, TLcom, Norssken, Speedinvest, and others at Oxford university’s Saïd Business School.

The Africa Venture Finance Programme (AVFP), a week-long, in-person course, has been developed specifically for VC fund managers investing in early and growth-stage technology companies in Africa.

Attendees from across the continent will participate, with half of them being women, highlighting the industry’s need for greater inclusion of women at senior levels.

The programme supports the growth of Africa’s technology venture capital sector. Fund managers will be equipped to identify and fund innovative solutions, addressing Africa’s unique challenges. They will share expertise and facilitate discussions to drive rapid growth in Africa’s technology venture capital sector.

“The EIB is committed to financing new technology and ideas that will address the global challenges we all face,” said EIB Vice-President Ambroise Fayolle. “We are proud of Boost Africa’s role in supporting a vibrant and resilient VC ecosystem in Africa and helping African entrepreneurs transform their ideas into successful businesses.”

Oxford Programme Director Aunnie Patton Power commented, “The African Venture Finance Programme exemplifies the kind of impactful, high-caliber initiatives we strive to offer at Saïd Business School. We take pride in our deep connections with the African continent, reflected in our students, alumni, and faculty, and we are excited to continue fostering the growth of emerging leaders through our programmes.”

Martin Ewald, Lead Portfolio Manager Impact Investments at Allianz Global Investors, commented, At AfricaGrow, we are proud to serve as a catalyst for private capital into the African venture capital ecosystem. Our investments and technical assistance programs are designed to empower local first-time funds, extending our impact beyond our immediate portfolio. The Africa Venture Finance Program offers a unique opportunity for fund managers to exchange knowledge, create strong networks and forge valuable partnerships.”

In addition to Oxford academic staff, prominent investors and technology experts from around the world will engage with participants on various topics. This includes renowned African investors and AVFP alumni Khaled Ben Jilani from AfricInvest, Keet van Zyl from Knife Capital, and Ido Sum from TLcom.

Attending fund managers will also have the opportunity to interact with representatives not only from the programme sponsors, the European Investment Bank and AllianzGI/ KfW/ DEG Impact, but also from development banks and international organizations such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), British International Investment (BII), the Dutch Entrepreneurial Development Bank (FMO), the French Proparco development finance institution, and others.

Additionally, the Alliance for Entrepreneurship in Africa and the Investing in Young Businesses in Africa (IYBA) initiative supported by the European Union (EU), will conduct a workshop to increase the coordination and cooperation between programmes helping investment funds and technology companies in Africa.

Boost Africa and AfricaGrow aim to have a catalytic effect on the emerging African start-up ecosystem by investing in and technically supporting VC funds in Africa. This week at Oxford Saïd Business School is unique in creating a platform for leading African VC managers to come together, learn from each other and be exposed to the latest theory and practices on venture funding.

The Africa Venture Finance Programme is supported by the EU via the Boost Africa programme and by the AfricaGrow Technical Assistance Facility.

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Stakeholders Advocate Increased Investment in Non-Oil Export Products

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Zenith Bank International Trade Seminar

Stakeholders unanimously called for concerted efforts towards adding value to non-oil export products by processing them into semi-finished and finished goods in order to unlock significant economic benefits for the nation.

This clarion call was made at the 9th Edition of the Annual Zenith Bank International Trade Seminar themed “Nigerian Non-Oil Export Industry: Awakening the Giant”, which was held on Wednesday, September 4, 2024, at the Civic Centre, Victoria Island, Lagos and virtually.

In her welcome address, the Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Zenith Bank Plc, Dame (Dr.) Adaora Umeoji, OON, highlighted the importance of non-oil export as a catalyst for job creation.

According to her, “Our theme “Awakening the Giant,” speaks directly to the untapped potentials within the non-oil segment of the economy and how to optimize them. This involves an increase in the number and volume of exportable non-oil items and value addition to exportable items into finished products. Increasing the number and volume of exportable non-oil products implies more business for you, our esteemed exporters, and increased foreign exchange earnings for our country. In addition, this sector will drive employment generation for Nigerian youths who constitute 60% of the estimated 233 million population, and Zenith Bank is committed to being at the forefront of these efforts.”

Delivering his keynote address, the Secretary, National Action Committee, AfCFTA, Mr. Segun Awolowo, commended Zenith Bank and its leadership led by the Founder and Chairman of the Board, Jim Ovia, CFR, for its laudable initiative in organizing an annual export seminar targeted towards exploring opportunities for growth in Nigeria’s non-oil export industry and for its consistent exploits in supporting the implementation of the AfCFTA.

Commenting on the theme of this year’s export seminar, he added that “In awakening the giant, we must focus on scaling production, productivity and value addition for some specific export products with high potential across three main sectors – solid minerals, agriculture and petro-chemicals. We should also aim to capture at least 5% of the global trade and export volumes for these products. Additionally, in the genie bottle is the services sector, which is not only a major contributor to Nigeria’s GDP but also a key driver of economic diversification, job creation, and innovation.”

Also in his keynote address, the Managing Director of Nigerian Export Import Bank (NEXIM), Alhaji Abba Bello, emphasized the need to amplify the export of services in order to facilitate economic growth.

In his words, “A key area that needs mentioning is the need to intensify efforts to support the promotion of export of services to leverage on the sector’s economic strength in which the services sector annually contributes over 50% to the GDP. Specifically, strategic frameworks need to be developed to complement current Government’s US$620 million programme under the Digital and Creative Enterprise (IDiCE), which is designed to empower youths to create IT and skilled / technical jobs that could promote and expand export of ICT and creative industries products and services.”

In his goodwill message, the Governor of Lagos State, His Excellency Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu, represented by The Honourable Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Mrs. Folashade Ambrose-Medebem, highlighted the efforts of the Lagos State Government in facilitating non-oil export for the growth of the Nigerian Economy.

He said, “This seminar’s theme resonates deeply with the strategic objectives of the Lagos State Development Plan 2052. Nigeria’s creative economy is a powerful engine of growth and a key pillar of our export diversification strategy. Our focus is on value addition—transforming raw agricultural products into finished goods that command higher prices in international markets. For instance, Lagos State is rapidly becoming a hub for the processing of cocoa, cashew nuts, palm oil, and sesame seeds.

These products, when processed and packaged to international standards, can significantly boost our export revenues and create thousands of jobs for our citizens. The manufacturing sector offers another promising avenue for export diversification. Our vision is to transform Lagos into a global manufacturing hub, where high-quality, made-in-Lagos products are exported to every corner of the globe.

Also in his goodwill message, the Governor of Kano State, Engr. Abba Kabir, represented by the Special Adviser, State Affairs, Usman Bala Muhammad, emphasized strategic advantages in economic diversification in non-oil exports.

In his words, “Our strength begins with agriculture, which has been the cornerstone of our economy for decades. Kano’s agricultural sector has a strong base that we are leveraging for diversification. However, diversification is not just about increasing crop yields; it is about adding value. Through strategic investments in agro-processing, we are converting raw agricultural products into finished goods, creating jobs, and enhancing local consumption. By aligning our export diversification strategies with global market trends and standards, and leveraging opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), we can significantly expand Nigeria’s non-oil exports to African markets and beyond.

Speaking on diversification, the Governor of Zamfara State, Dr. Dauda Lawal, represented by the Commissioner of Finance, Abdullahi Bello Auta, urged stakeholders to explore other untapped areas for export.

According to him, “One major important sector which contributes to non-oil export which is not harnessed and which is giving us a lot of trouble simply because it is not organized is the mining sector. I can tell you with all sincerity and courage that once we are talking of mineral resources in Nigeria, Zamfara state is the hub. There is no single solid mineral that you can talk of that you cannot find here in abundance and in good quality.”

Zenith Bank launched the Non-Oil Export Seminar in 2015 as an initiative to deepen the discourse on promoting the non-oil export business in Nigeria, and remains committed to promoting the non-oil export sector in Nigeria by identifying emerging opportunities which help stimulate non-oil exports and develop robust financial products as well as incentives for operators in the sector.

 

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