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Rwanda to Outgrow, Nigeria, South Africa, Others in 2022 – World Bank

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The World Bank has said Rwanda will outgrow Nigeria, South Africa and all other African countries in 2022 despite the projected slow pace of growth when compared to 2021.

In its latest economic report titled “Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth”, the world’s leading multilateral financial institution said Rwanda’s economy is expected to grow at a 6.8% rate, the highest for any African nation in 2022 while in 2023 and 2024 it will expand at 7.2% and 7.4%, respectively.

In 2021, the economy grew at 10.9% to exceed its 9.5% pre-pandemic growth rate recorded in 2019. Also, the second-largest growth rate achieved in Africa in 2021. Botswana was the biggest at 12.1%.

However, Africa’s largest economy Nigeria was estimated to grow at 3.4% in 2022, largely due to rising oil prices. Global uncertainty amid Russia-Ukraine, Nigeria’s 2023 General Elections and emerging economies are expected to weigh on the economy in 2023 and 2024, containing the nation’s growth rate at 3.2% in the two following years.

Growth in South Africa, the second-largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to remain largely subdued at 2.1% in 2021. In 2023 and 2024, World Bank predicted that South Africa would grow at 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region will grow at a 3.7%  rate in 2022, down from 4.2% in 2021. The bank said the decline in the region will be caused by domestic price pressures partly induced by supply disruptions owing to the war in Ukraine, are reducing food affordability and real incomes, especially in low-income countries (LICs).

“Growth in SSA is expected at 3.7 percent in 2022 and 3.8 percent in 2023 – on par with January projections. Yet, excluding the three largest economies, growth was downgraded by 0.4 percentage point both in 2022 and 2023. Although, elevated commodity prices would underpin recoveries in extractive sectors, in many countries rising inflation would erode real incomes, depress demand, and deepen poverty,” World Bank stated.

“Growth in low-income countries (LICs) was revised down by almost a full percentage point this year as food price inflation and food shortages are expected to take a particularly severe toll on vulnerable populations, further worsening food insecurity in those countries.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Central Bank of Nigeria Raises Interest Rate to 26.25% in Bid to Tackle Soaring Inflation

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 150 basis points from 24.75% to 26.25% following a two-day meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The decision, which is the third consecutive interest rate hike, comes as inflation levels in Nigeria have surged to 33.69% in April 2024.

CBN Governor and MPC Chairman, Yemi Cardoso, highlighted the key focus of the MPC meeting.

He cited food inflation as a primary driver, attributing it to rising transportation costs, infrastructure challenges, insecurity, and exchange rate issues.

While announcing the interest rate hike, Cardoso noted that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) would remain at 45%, and the MPC would maintain the Asymmetric Corridor around the MPR at +100 and -300 basis points.

Also, the liquidity ratio would be retained at 30%.

The decision reflects the CBN’s determination to address the economic challenges stemming from high inflation rates.

Despite protests and pressure from labor unions, President Bola Tinubu has urged patience, expressing confidence in his government’s reform initiatives.

The announcement of the interest rate hike comes amid rising prices of commodities and an escalating cost of living for Nigerians.

The removal of fuel subsidies last year and the floating of the naira have contributed significantly to historic high inflation levels.

In recent months, the CBN has taken measures to combat the falling value of the naira, including targeting the operations of cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

While these measures initially led to an appreciation of the currency, recent weeks have seen the gains stall.

The decision to raise the interest rate shows CBN’s commitment to implementing measures aimed at stabilizing the economy and restoring confidence in the nation’s financial system.

However, the effectiveness of these measures in curbing inflation and promoting economic growth remains to be seen amid ongoing economic challenges and uncertainties.

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Analysts Forecast Rate Increase as Naira Depreciates Sharply

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Interbank rate

As the Nigerian naira experiences a sharp depreciation against major currencies, financial analysts are predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt for another interest rate hike to address the country’s economic challenges.

The recent slump in the naira, coupled with a 28-year high inflation rate, has raised concerns among economists, prompting expectations of further tightening measures.

Since mid-April, the naira has witnessed a significant decline, falling by 28% against the US dollar over the past four weeks.

This rapid depreciation has been exacerbated by President Bola Tinubu’s decision to relax foreign-exchange controls last June.

In response to the economic turmoil, the MPC raised interest rates by 6 percentage points in the first quarter, bringing the benchmark rate to 24.75%.

However, with inflation soaring to 33.7% last month—well above the central bank’s target range of 9%—analysts believe that additional rate hikes may be necessary to curb rising prices and stabilize the currency.

Giulia Pellegrin, a senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, highlighted the need for proactive measures, stating, “The committee will likely be watching recent currency volatility and may decide more action is needed.”

She emphasized the importance of tightening monetary policy to restore investor confidence and ensure price stability.

Yvonne Mhango, an economist at Bloomberg Africa, echoed similar sentiments, noting that the naira’s depreciation necessitates “additional and sizeable rate hikes.”

Mhango emphasized the significance of maintaining positive real interest rates to combat inflationary pressures effectively.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the MPC’s decision, with many expecting another interest rate increase at the upcoming meeting on May 21.

Ayodeji Dawodu, director of fixed income at BancTrust & Co., stressed the importance of transparency and intervention in the currency market to restore stability.

“Investors also want Cardoso to announce more liquidity-tightening measures and introduce greater transparency in the currency market,” Dawodu remarked.

Despite recent declines in liquid reserves, analysts remain hopeful that decisive action from the central bank will help alleviate concerns about the quality of reserves and bolster confidence in the economy.

As Nigeria navigates through turbulent economic waters, all eyes are on the MPC’s decision and its potential implications for the country’s financial landscape.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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