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Capital Importation Declines by 28% Quarter-on-Quarter

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released its latest report on capital importation for Q1 ’22. The data was obtained from the CBN and compiled using information on banking transactions from all registered financial institutions in Nigeria.

The total value of capital imported in Q1 ‘22 was estimated at USD1.6bn, representing a decline of 28% q/q and 17.5% y/y. The capital importation data is gross, and not adjusted for capital exports.

The category referred to as portfolio investment accounted for the largest share (60.9%) of total capital importation in Q1 ’22. On a q/q basis, portfolio investment increased by 49% in Q1. Money market instruments accounted for 64% of total portfolio investments and increased by 10% q/q.

Coronation Merchant Bank partly attributed the q/q increase to investors seeking safe short-term instruments. Meanwhile, bonds accounted for 32% of total portfolio investments, increasing by 575% q/q and 124% y/y.

Demand for equities was relatively low in Q1 ‘22. This asset class accounted for 3% (USD31.8bn) of total portfolio investments. Data from NGX show the ratio of local to foreign investment participation at 81:19 in Q1 ‘22. We note that the NGX-ASI posted a positive return of 10% in Q1 ’22.

In the quarter under review, foreign direct investment inflow declined by -57% q/q to USD155m. On a y/y basis, there was a marginal increase. There has been a downward trend in greenfield investment projects. Given the direct correlation with investment attractiveness, ease of doing business and FDI flows, reforms that improve national security, reduce the country’s infrastructure deficit, and support a conducive business environment are critical.

China and Singapore were able to boost their respective FDI and facilitate economic transformation by providing value-add via affordable and skilled labour. Through reforms, South Korea deliberately created a motivated and educated populace in addition to spurring their country’s technological boom, these attracted increased FDI.

The FGN’s commitment to improve Nigeria’s ease of doing business ranking from 131 to 100 by 2025, is laudable. However, this requires well-targeted capital expenses as well as proper fiscal discipline. FDI inflow accounted for only 10% of total capital importation in Q1 ’22.

From a sector perspective, the banking sector received the highest inflow (USD819m) in Q1, accounting for52%of total capital importation. The second-largest recipient was production (USD224m), which we assuming falls under the manufacturing sector.

Capital importation by country of origin shows that the United Kingdom was the top source of capital imported in Q1with a value of USD1bn, accounting for 65% of total capital inflow during the period. This was followed by South Africa (USD118m) and the United States (USD82m).

At its last meeting held in May, the MPC/CBN hiked the monetary policy rate by 150bps to 13%. This is in an attempt to provide incentives for foreign capital inflow. In addition to moderating the speed of capital flow reversal, ease inflationary pressure and exchange rate depreciation, among others. This could attract investments into the domestic fixed income market. However, given that central banks across advanced economies are tilting towards tightening this year, a slowdown in capital inflow to emerging markets, notably Nigeria is likely.

Based on trading activities to date this quarter, we expect the Q2 report when published to show a further decline in inflows from portfolio investments.

This projected underperformance can be partly linked to fx repatriation concerns, flight to safety following interests rate hikes by policies makers globally, political uncertainty and the lingering conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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