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Stocks Steady Ahead of Fed, Bond Yields hit Key Levels, Oil Dips, Gold Rebounds, Bitcoin Struggles

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By Edward Moya

US stocks are steadying ahead of a pivotal Fed decision that will deliver the largest rate hike since the start of the millennium. Wall Street knows the next few months could be rather challenging given the current forces of inflation and all the uncertainty with energy prices and supply chain issues.  Despite all the risks to economic growth, investors are still mostly optimistic that stocks will finish much higher by the end of the year.  Market volatility is expected to remain elevated over the next few Fed meetings and that could mean stocks could soften by another 5% before traders aggressively buy the dip.

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by a half-point and announce the balance-sheet runoff tomorrow. The Fed knows the first few rate hikes won’t restrain growth that much but their messaging on tightening going forward and the size of the balance sheet runoff start could rattle markets. The S&P 500 index has major support at the 4,050 level heading into the Fed meeting.

Fixed income traders have watched many massive technical levels reached, with the 10-year Treasury yield testing 3.00%, the German bund yield tentatively tested 1.00%, and as Gilts tested 2.00%.  Aggressive central bank tightening has been keeping the bond market selloff going, but prices should now consolidate until the Fed meeting.

Oil

Crude prices are declining as Beijing tightens up their Covid controls and as tanker-tracker data showed Russian crude flows increased.  Energy traders are not convinced that the EU will be able to move forward with an embargo on Russian oil. ​

Oil seems to have major support around the $100 level as OPEC+ seems poised to rubber stamp next month’s output increase target that they probably won’t hit.  Still weighing on oil is the uncertainty with China’s Covid situation.  Energy traders are also keeping a close eye on the Fed policy meeting which could contain a hawkish surprise that sends the dollar higher, which will drag down commodity prices.

Gold

Gold’s two weeks of pain appears to be over as Wall Street has priced in the majority of global central bank tightening.  After a major run higher for US and European bond yields, non-interest bearing gold is mustering up a rally as fixed income traders appear to be getting closer to pricing in peak hawkishness.

Gold has been battered as investors brace for the most hawkish Fed policy decision since the start of the millennium.  The dollar rally could be getting closer to nearing its end and that should be good news for bullion.  Gold’s fate could very well be determined on how aggressive the Fed will be with balance sheet normalization.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is in wait-and-see mode for the Fed policy decision, which could show Wall Street has priced in peak Fed hawkishness.  Bitcoin is struggling to muster up a rally as investors remain cautious about buying risky assets. Bitcoin needs a fresh catalyst as sentiment on Wall Street remains fairly downbeat. ​

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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