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Markets Today – Earnings, Russian Gas, Oil, Gold

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

We’re seeing a little bit of positivity back in the markets on Wednesday but there’s still plenty of underlying unease amid a mixed bag of earnings and rising uncertainty.

Earnings season will continue to be a core focus for investors, despite the wide array of other factors that have been dominating market sentiment for months. It has gone quite well so far but it’s clear that there are some big challenges ahead which explain why we’re not seeing the lift we may otherwise see.

And when Russia is cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in response to their refusal to pay in roubles, following Putin’s decision to change the terms of payment, you can understand why. This may be a warning sign to others in the hope that they don’t follow suit but if they do, the standoff could play havoc with energy prices.

It will also continue to be a headwind for European stock markets as a result of the bloc’s heavy reliance on Russian gas. The weaponisation of gas was long seen as an unlikely last resort but now the Kremlin has got the ball rolling, the risk has become significantly greater which could pose a massive economic threat to the EU.

Oil prices slip even as gas prices soar

Natural gas prices in Europe have understandably spiked in the aftermath of Russia’s decision to cut off Poland and Bulgaria. Suddenly the market is forced to price in the Kremlin taking similar action against much larger customers, having decided that the threat of Europe imposing the embargo was low given certain resistance. With the Kremlin putting itself in a position where it must apply the same punishment to all if they don’t comply, Europe may find itself without Russian gas or looking weak.

Oil prices have continued to slip despite the ramp-up in tensions between the EU and Russia. Chinese lockdowns have helped ease some of the upward pressure on crude prices in recent weeks which is offsetting the hit to Russian supply as a result of sanctions. Still, it remains above $100 and it’s hard to imagine the price falling significantly below against the backdrop of such uncertainty and an inability of OPEC+ to hit targets.

Has the market really lost its appetite for gold?

It’s been a strange month for gold which rallied towards $2,000 on seemingly little before plunging back below $1,900 on very little as well. The spike in volatility has left the yellow metal not far from where it was for much of March. I find it very hard to believe that the appetite for gold is waning given the immense uncertainty and inflationary pressures that still exist. A break below $1,880 may suggest otherwise.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Crude Oil

Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Energy

Nigeria Targets $5bn Investments in Oil and Gas Sector, Says Government

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Nigeria is setting its sights on attracting $5 billion worth of investments in its oil and gas sector, according to statements made by government officials during an oil and gas sector retreat in Abuja.

During the retreat organized by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, explained the importance of ramping up crude oil production and creating an environment conducive to attracting investments.

He highlighted the need to work closely with agencies like the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to achieve these goals.

Lokpobiri acknowledged the challenges posed by issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism but expressed confidence in the government’s ability to tackle them effectively.

He stressed the necessity of a globally competitive regulatory framework to encourage investment in the sector.

The minister’s remarks were echoed by Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, who spoke at the 2024 Strategic Women in Energy, Oil, and Gas Leadership Summit.

Kyari stressed the critical role of energy in driving economic growth and development and explained that Nigeria still faces challenges in providing stable electricity to its citizens.

Kyari outlined NNPCL’s vision for the future, which includes increasing crude oil production, expanding refining capacity, and growing the company’s retail network.

He highlighted the importance of leveraging Nigeria’s vast gas resources and optimizing dividend payouts to shareholders.

Overall, the government’s commitment to attracting $5 billion in investments reflects its determination to revitalize the oil and gas sector and drive economic growth in Nigeria.

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Commodities

Palm Oil Rebounds on Upbeat Malaysian Exports Amid Indonesian Supply Concerns

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Palm oil prices rebounded from a two-day decline on reports that Malaysian exports will be robust this month despite concerns over potential supply disruptions from Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter.

The market saw a significant surge as Malaysian export figures for the current month painted a promising picture.

Senior trader David Ng from IcebergX Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur attributed the morning’s gains to Malaysia’s strong export performance, with shipments climbing by a notable 14% during March 1-25 compared to the previous month.

Increased demand from key regions like Africa, India, and the Middle East contributed to this impressive growth, as reported by Intertek Testing Services.

However, amidst this positivity, investors are closely monitoring developments in Indonesia. The Indonesian government’s contemplation of revising its domestic market obligation policy, potentially linking it to production rather than exports, has stirred market concerns.

Edy Priyono, a deputy at the presidential staff office in Jakarta, indicated that this proposed shift aims to mitigate vulnerability to fluctuations in export demand.

Yet, it could potentially constrain supply availability from Indonesia in the future to stabilize domestic prices.

This uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies has added a layer of complexity to palm oil market dynamics, prompting investors to react cautiously despite Malaysia’s promising export performance.

The prospect of Indonesian supply disruptions underscores the delicacy of global palm oil supply chains and their susceptibility to geopolitical and regulatory factors.

As the market navigates these developments, stakeholders remain attentive to both export data from Malaysia and policy shifts in Indonesia, recognizing their significant impact on palm oil prices and market stability.

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