Economy

Coronation Trade Insights

Published

2 years ago

April 2, 2022

Nigeria in focus

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade increased by 11.8% q/q to N11.7trn in Q4 ‘21. For FY ’21, total foreign trade increased by 57.6%, to N39.7trn from N25.2trn in 2020. Compared with 2020, the total export value rose by 51% to N18.9trn, from N12.5trn and the import value rose by 64.1% to N20.8trn from N12.7trn. The net result was a deficit of N1.9trn, which followed a deficit of N178bn the previous year.

Total trade in 2021 was higher primarily due to subsiding pandemic restrictions that had affected export activity in 2020 and increases in commodity prices (i.e. crude oil). The total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP stood at 22.6% in 2021, compared with 16.4% in 2020.

For Nigeria, the NBS notes that most imports in Q4 and FY ’21 originated from Asia (China in particular). In 2021, the value of imported agricultural goods, manufactured products as well as oil-related products rose by 57%, 2.5% and 43.3% respectively when compared to FY ‘20.

Regarding export destination, India remained the top exporting partner for Nigeria in 2021. The five top exports partners were India, (16.4%) Spain (11.8%), France (6.3%), the Netherlands (6.0%) and Canada (4.5%). These five countries accounted for 45% of the total exports in 2021.

Unsurprisingly, crude oil accounted for the largest share (76.2%) of total exports in 2021. The value of crude oil exports increased by 52.6% when compared to 2020. Bonny Light averaged USD71.1/b in 2021. We note that raw and fermented cocoa beans, sesamum seeds, ginger, cigarettes, natural rubber and aluminium featured as
non-oil export products in 2021.

Nigeria exported goods valued at N1.2trn to fellow members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), compared with N841bn in 2020. This represented 51.4% of total exports within Africa. Meanwhile, imports from ECOWAS accounted for 15% of the value of total imports.

The leading port of operation during the year under review was the Apapa Port. Goods worth N17.1trn exited the country through this port. The next leading port of operation was Port Harcourt, through which goods worth N1trn were shipped to partner countries. Tin Can Island was also very active and goods worth N405bn exited Nigeria through this port.

The CBN announced the RT200 FX program, which is a set of policies, plans and programs for non-oil exports that will enable the country to attain the goal of USD200bn in FX repatriation from non-oil exports over the next 3-5 years. The program would rest on five key anchors; (I) non-oil exports proceed repatriation rebate scheme (II) Non-oil commodities expansion facility (III) Dedicated non-oil export terminal (IV) Value-adding exports facility (V) Biannual non-oil exports summit.

The CBN has released the operating guidelines for the non-oil export proceeds repatriation rebate scheme. Under this scheme, non-oil export proceeds sold to Authorised Dealers and Banks (ADBs) for third party use through investors and Exporters (I&E) window, will get a rebate of N65 for every USD and N35 for every US Dollar repatriated and sold into the I&E window for own use on eligible transactions only. The payment of the incentive will be made on quarterly basis.

The recent introduction of the pan-African payment and settlement system (PAPSS) is another welcome development, as over 80% of African cross-border transactions originating from banks within the continent are currently cleared and settled offshore.

Therefore, creating inefficiencies, and increasing the cost of African cross-border payments. PAPPS will facilitate payments as well as formalise some of the informal cross-border trade in Africa.

Through a simple, low-cost and risk-controlled payment clearing and settlement system, PAPPS would provide an alternative to the current high-cost and lengthy correspondent banking system, as well as an enabling infrastructure to spur the growth of intraAfrican trade and commerce, with the active participation of central banks, financial institutions, regional economic communities, the private sector, and other stakeholders.

Global/Regional in focus

Extraordinary measures such as lockdowns, quarantines and travel restrictions aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID-19 had a dramatic effect on global trade in 2020. According to data from the World Trade Organisation (WTO), merchandise trade declined by -7.3% or USD2.7trn to USD35.2trn in 2020, compared with USD37.9trn in 2019.

According to WTO, merchandise trade increased by 24.4% y/y (USD2.1trn) to USD11.2trn in Q3 ’21. However, the recovery in 2021 was affected by supply shortages, on the back of bottlenecks in global freight transport, spiralling shipping costs, logistic disruptions, semiconductor shortages, and rising energy prices. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has hampered progress with global trade activity and has led to hikes in prices of some core commodities such as wheat. Turning to Africa, in 2020, merchandise trade declined by 15.9% to USD895.3bn, compared with USD1.1trn in 2019.

However, there were notable improvements in African trade activity last year, as global economies reopened fully and there was progress with vaccine uptake (African vaccination rate currently stands at 20%). Based on data from the International Trade Center, in 2020, countries within Africa (combined) imported agricultural products worth USD4bn from Russia. Wheat accounted for c.90% of these imports. Egypt was the largest importer, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya, and South Africa.

Furthermore, in the same year, wheat accounted for c.48% of total imported agricultural products from Ukraine, valued at c.USD2.9bn. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis has resulted in further supply-chain disruptions. The sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on Russia could have an adverse effect on trade activities between countries within Africa and Russia.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development disclosed that, in 2019, intra-African trade accounted for less than 15% of total exports among African countries. This suggests that there are potential benefits from increased regional trade.

However, if informal cross-border trade is considered, this percentage increases. We note that in some African countries, informal cross-border trade accounts for c.90% of official trade flow and contributes c.40% to total trade within regional economic communities.

Africa currently engages in the global value chain mainly via the supply of primary goods. The intra-trade level in Africa is low when compared with other regions, like Asia and Europe. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to boost the intra-regional economy and provide new dynamics to Africa’s participation in the global value chain. According to World Bank’s analysis, the AfCFTA will boost intracontinental exports by over 81% and exports with non-African countries by 19% by 2035.

Regarding sectors, manufacturing exports are anticipated to make the most gains: a 110% increase for intra-African trade and 46% for non-African trade. For Nigeria, the local manufacturing sector needs to be strengthened in order to benefit from the potential boost.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Goldman Sachs Urges Bold Rate Hike as Naira Weakens and Inflation Soars

Published

3 days ago

July 23, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As Nigeria grapples with soaring inflation and a faltering naira, Goldman Sachs is calling for a substantial increase in interest rates to stabilize the economy and restore investor confidence.

The global investment bank’s recommendation comes ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) key monetary policy decision, set to be announced on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs economists, including Andrew Matheny, argue that incremental rate adjustments will not be sufficient to address the country’s deepening economic challenges.

“Another 50 or 100 basis points is certainly not going to move the needle in the eyes of an investor,” Matheny stated. “Nigeria needs a bold, decisive move to curb inflation and regain investor trust.”

The CBN, under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, is anticipated to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 27% in its upcoming meeting.

This would mark a continuation of the aggressive tightening campaign that began in May 2022, which has seen rates increase by 14.75 percentage points.

Despite this, inflation has remained stubbornly high, highlighting the need for more substantial measures.

The current economic landscape is marked by severe challenges. The naira’s depreciation has led to higher import costs, fueling inflation and eroding consumer purchasing power.

The CBN has attempted to ease the currency’s scarcity by selling dollars to local foreign exchange bureaus, but these efforts have yet to stabilize the naira significantly.

“Developments since the last meeting have definitely been hawkish,” noted Matheny. “The naira has weakened further, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The CBN’s policy needs to reflect this reality more aggressively.”

In response to the persistent inflation and naira weakness, analysts are urging the central bank to implement a more coherent strategy to manage the currency and inflation.

James Marshall of Promeritum Investment Management LLP suggested that the CBN should actively participate in the foreign exchange market to mitigate the naira’s volatility and restore market confidence.

“The central bank needs to be a more consistent and active participant in the forex market,” Marshall said. “A clear strategy to address the naira’s weakness is crucial for stabilizing the economy.”

The CBN’s decision will come as the country faces a critical period. With inflation expected to slow due to favorable comparisons with the previous year and new measures to reduce food costs, including a temporary import duty waiver on wheat and corn, there is hope that the economic situation may improve.

However, analysts anticipate that the CBN will need to implement one final rate hike to solidify inflation’s slowdown and restore positive real rates.

Economy

Currency Drop Spurs Discount Dilemma in Cairo’s Markets

Published

3 days ago

July 23, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Under Cairo’s scorching sun, the bustling streets reveal an unexpected twist in dramatic price drops on big-ticket items like cars and appliances.

Following March’s significant currency devaluation, prices for these goods have plunged, leaving consumers hesitant to make purchases amid hopes for even better deals.

Mohamed Yassin, a furniture store vendor, said “People just inquire about prices. They’re afraid to buy in case prices drop further.” This cautious consumer behavior is posing challenges for Egypt’s consumer-driven economy.

In March, Egyptian authorities devalued the pound by nearly 40% to stabilize an economy teetering on the edge. While such moves often lead to inflation spikes, Egypt’s case has been unusual.

Unlike other nations like Nigeria or Argentina, where costs soared post-devaluation, Egypt is witnessing falling prices for high-value items.

Previously inflated prices were driven by a black market in foreign currency, where importers secured dollars at exorbitant rates, passing costs onto consumers.

Now, with the pound stabilizing and foreign currency more accessible, retailers are struggling to sell inventory at pre-devaluation prices.

Despite price reductions, the overall consumer market remains sluggish. The automotive sector has seen a near 75% drop in sales compared to pre-crisis levels.

Major brands like Hyundai and Volkswagen have slashed prices by about a quarter, yet buyers remain cautious.

The economic strain is not limited to luxury items. Everyday expenses continue to rise, albeit more slowly, with anticipated hikes in electricity and fuel prices adding to the pressure.

Experts highlight a period of adjustment as both consumers and traders navigate the volatile exchange-rate environment. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of research at EFG Hermes, explains, “The market is taking time to absorb recent fluctuations.”

Meanwhile, businesses face declining sales, impacting their ability to manage operating costs. Yassin’s store has offered discounts of up to 50% yet remains quiet. “We’ve tried everything, but everyone is waiting,” he laments.

The devaluation has spurred a shift in economic dynamics. Inflation has eased, but the pace varies across sectors. Clothing and transportation costs are up, while food prices fluctuate.

With the phasing out of fuel subsidies and potential electricity price increases, Egyptians are bracing for further financial strain. The recent 300% rise in subsidized bread prices adds another layer of concern.

The situation underscores the balancing act between maintaining consumer confidence and attracting foreign investment.

Economists suggest potential stimulus measures, such as lowering interest rates or increasing public spending, to boost demand.

Economy

MPC Meeting on July 22-23 to Tackle Inflation as Rates Set to Rise Again

Published

4 days ago

July 22, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to convene on July 22-23, 2024, amid soaring inflation and economic challenges in Nigeria.

Led by Olayemi Cardoso, the committee has already increased interest rates three times this year, raising them by 750 basis points to 26.25 percent.

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate climbed to 34.19 percent in June, driven by rising food prices. Despite these pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects that inflation will moderate to around 21.40 percent by year-end.

Market analysts expect a further rate hike as the committee seeks to rein in inflation. Nabila Mohammed from Chapel Hill Denham anticipates a 50–75 basis point increase.

Similarly, Coronation Research forecasts a potential rise of 50 to 100 basis points, given the recent uptick in inflation.

The food inflation rate reached 40.87 percent in June, exacerbated by security issues in key agricultural regions.

Essential commodities such as millet, garri, and yams have seen significant price hikes, impacting household budgets and savings.

As the MPC meets, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release data on selected food prices for June, providing further insights into the inflationary trends affecting Nigerians.

The upcoming MPC meeting will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Nigeria’s monetary policy as the government grapples with economic instability.

The focus remains on balancing inflation control with economic growth to ensure stability in Africa’s largest economy.