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Markets Today – Equities Stable, Russian Trading Resumes, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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Oil

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

It’s been a relatively slow start to trading in equity markets as we approach the end of the week, with stocks losing the momentum that’s driven the strong recovery in recent weeks.

The recovery has arguably been overdone considering the invasion of Ukraine is ongoing and commodity prices are at sky-high levels and still prone to surges. But the fact that Ukraine and Russia remain in negotiations seems to be enough to keep investors on board.

The threat of very high inflation and rapid rate hikes isn’t proving much of a deterrent either which is interesting after more than a decade of ultra-low rates in both cases. Again, this may change as we see more evidence of the economic consequences and as central banks both raise rates and reduce their balance sheets but for now, markets are holding up.

MOEX manipulated higher as trading resumes

Russian stocks restarted trading on Thursday and it’s safe to say this is no longer a normal functioning market. Trading ceased on stocks for almost a month after they plunged in response to Western sanctions against Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Authorities are going to great lengths to manipulate the market and prevent another devastating plunge and their efforts are working, for now. The MOEX rallied more than 4% in shortened trade thanks to a combination of heavy government buying and bans on short-selling and foreign sales. There is nothing normal, functional, or sustainable about the Russian market right now, they’re simply buying time.

Oil stabilises as OPEC expresses concerns

Even oil prices are a little flat after spiking higher on Wednesday in response to apparent storm damage on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) that will affect around a million barrels per day from Kazakhstan for up to a couple of months. Coming at a time when the market is already extremely tight, it could ensure prices remain higher and vulnerable to further increases.

OPEC has reportedly expressed its unease to the EU regarding a proposed ban on Russian oil. In much the same way that Western leaders have had their requests for additional oil production overlooked in recent months as prices have surged, I can’t help but think OPEC’s concerns will fall on deaf ears. I guess we’ll soon see just how strong the OPEC+ alliance is.

Gold higher amid commodity surge

Gold is creeping higher again, adding to yesterday’s gains which came in risk-averse trade. The yellow metal remains well supported against the backdrop of high inflation and commodity price surges, not to mention waves of risk-aversion in these highly uncertain times.

It ran into some resistance around $1,960 earlier in the session before pulling back to trade around $1,950. It’s given back a lot of the gains secured earlier this month as traders sought the shelter of a reliable safe haven and inflation hedge amid the Ukraine invasion and sky-rocketing commodity prices. But it’s seen firm support around $1,900 even as risk appetite has improved. Upside may be slow as a result of this but equally, I expect this support to remain firm in the absence of significant progress in ceasefire talks.

Bitcoin sights set on $45,500

Bitcoin has been quietly creeping higher in recent weeks and was relatively unaffected by yesterday’s bout of risk aversion. It held above $40,000 during the pullback earlier this week and is holding onto gains once more as it eyes the next big test around $45,500. It’s failed here repeatedly before but further improvements in risk appetite in the markets may see it over the line.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Hold Firm Despite Middle East Tensions

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Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices remained resilient, holding steady above key levels on Tuesday.

Brent crude oil traded above $87 a barrel after a slight dip of 0.3% on the previous trading day, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $82 a barrel.

The stability in oil prices comes amidst a backdrop of positive sentiment across global markets, with signs of strength in various sectors countering concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One of the factors supporting oil prices is the weakening of the US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the currency more attractive to international investors.

Concurrently, equities experienced gains, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment.

However, geopolitical risks persist as Israel intensifies efforts to eliminate what it claims is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza and secure the release of remaining hostages.

These actions are expected to keep tensions elevated in the region, adding uncertainty to oil markets.

Despite the geopolitical tensions, options markets have shown a more optimistic outlook in recent days regarding the potential for a spike in oil prices. This suggests that market participants are cautiously optimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

Despite the lingering risks, oil prices have remained below the $90 per barrel price level, a level that many analysts consider significant, particularly as the summer months approach, typically known as the peak demand season for oil.

While prices have experienced some volatility, they have yet to reach the $90 threshold, prompting expectations of further increases later in the year.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle Group, expressed confidence in the potential for oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel, citing tight market conditions indicated by timespreads.

However, he also noted the importance of monitoring OPEC’s response to rising prices, as the organization may adjust production levels to stabilize the market.

Overall, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to oil markets, the resilience of oil prices amidst these challenges underscores the complex interplay of global factors influencing commodity markets.

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