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Markets Today – Fed, Interest Rates, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Stock markets are making decent gains on Tuesday, bouncing back quickly from the disappointment late Monday as Fed Chair Powell turned the hawkish dial up a notch.

It didn’t take long for investors to get over the latest disappointment as they prepared for interest rates rising to around 2% by the end of the year. That’s an incredible aggressive tightening cycle and would mean at least one 50 basis point hike at a meeting, something we haven’t seen in more than 20 years.

Despite recession talk rearing its ugly head as people question whether the economy can withstand such a rapid tightening, it’s clear that investors are not being deterred. You start to wonder what exactly will put investors off at this stage as the yield curve is very close to inverting – a recession signal – and the central bank backstop is being withdrawn.

It’s not like the situation in Ukraine is improving, even if negotiations are continuing with Russia. Perhaps there’s a belief that the invasion is now priced into the markets along with high commodity prices. But that ignores the prospect of further escalations and commodity prices rising further.

Of course, there’s no simple answer to all of this. But the fact that equity markets have recovered as much as they have is no doubt interesting. Is it complacency? A result of the buy-the-dip habit that’s proven so rewarding over the years? Or is there something more fundamental? Powell certainly seems to believe the economy can withstand such a sharp increase in interest rates. Maybe investors share his optimism.

Oil slightly pares gains after Monday’s surge

A 7% surge in oil prices on Monday was always going to be difficult to sustain and today’s modest declines are a reflection of that. Whether fueled by the prospect of an EU ban on Russian imports, Chinese lockdowns being less economically restrictive, or the dimming prospects for substantial Saudi output increases; it seems oil traders aren’t willing to give up the gains that easy.

It’s going to be tough for the EU to agree on a ban that isn’t phased in over time as they’re simply too reliant on Russian oil. In years gone by, maybe. But supplies are too tight and it will take time to source alternative producers. Still, it’s the fact that they’re tight and Russian exports are slipping as a result of sanctions, combined with a lack of willingness to alleviate those pressures by those that can that makes these prices sustainable for now.

Gold should remain well support

We’re continuing to see consolidation in gold in what has been choppy trading conditions over the last week. The yellow metal remains in demand in the current environment but the recovery in risk appetite has softened its appeal.

That said, inflation remains sky-high and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Commodity prices have pulled back but remain extremely elevated and the risks still appear tilted to the upside. Gold is unlikely to fall out of favour but it could continue to consolidate around $1,900 as traders protect against the risks that lie ahead.

Bitcoin boosted alongside risk assets

Buoyed by the rebound in risk appetite on Tuesday, bitcoin has jumped more than 3% and, importantly, broken above $42,000 which will put the focus back on $45,500 where it has repeatedly run into resistance. Whether it can break beyond that may well depend on how well risk appetite holds up.

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Crude Oil

Dangote Refinery Leverages Cheaper US Oil Imports to Boost Production

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Crude Oil

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is capitalizing on the availability of cheaper oil imports from the United States.

Recent reports indicate that the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day has begun leveraging US-grade oil to power its operations in Nigeria.

According to insights from industry analysts, the refinery has commenced shipping various products, including jet fuel, gasoil, and naphtha, as it gradually ramps up its production capacity.

The utilization of US oil imports, particularly the WTI Midland grade, has provided Dangote Refinery with a cost-effective solution for its feedstock requirements.

Experts anticipate that the refinery’s gasoline-focused units, expected to come online in the summer months will further bolster its influence in the Atlantic Basin gasoline markets.

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Refining, Chemicals, and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Dangote’s entry into the gasoline market is poised to reshape the West African gasoline supply dynamics.

Despite operating at approximately half its nameplate capacity, Dangote Refinery’s impact on regional fuel markets is already being felt. The refinery’s recent announcement of a reduction in diesel prices from N1,200/litre to N1,000/litre has generated excitement within Nigeria’s downstream oil sector.

This move is expected to positively affect various sectors of the economy and contribute to reducing the country’s high inflation rate.

Furthermore, the refinery’s utilization of US oil imports shows its commitment to exploring cost-effective solutions while striving to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand. As the refinery continues to optimize its production processes, it is poised to play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s energy landscape and contribute to the country’s quest for self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.

Moreover, the Nigerian government’s recent directive to compel oil producers to prioritize domestic refineries for crude supply aligns with Dangote Refinery’s objectives of reducing reliance on imported refined products.

With the flexibility to purchase crude using either the local currency or the US dollar, the refinery is well-positioned to capitalize on these policy reforms and further enhance its operational efficiency.

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Markets

Havens Seekers Turn to Bonds Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Crude Oil Prices Surge

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Crude Oil - Investors King

As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, investors are seeking refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, particularly bonds, while crude oil prices surge on fears of supply disruptions.

The latest developments in the Middle East have sparked a rush to secure assets perceived as less risky amidst growing uncertainty.

With crude oil trading just over 1% higher, having given up earlier gains of as much as 4.2%, investors are closely monitoring the situation for any signs of real supply disruptions.

While there is currently no evidence of such disruptions, concerns persist that any escalation in tensions could affect oil flows through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or lead to renewed attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Edward Bell, head of market economics at Emirates NBD PJSC in Dubai, said it is important to assess whether there have been any tangible impacts on the physical supply or shipment of oil products, indicating that if the answer is negative, the premium may need to be recalibrated.

Meanwhile, Oman’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning what it termed Israel’s repeated military attacks in the region in response to the blasts in Iran. This is the first reaction from Gulf Arab states to the reported Israeli strike on Iran.

The ministry also called for international efforts to focus on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel is engaged in conflict with Iranian-backed Hamas, and to seek a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief Emerging Markets Economist, argued that the ball is now in Iran’s court, with its next actions likely to determine the broader economic impact of the situation.

In the financial markets, bonds are emerging as the preferred haven for investors seeking safety amid the heightened tensions.

Bunds in Europe, together with Treasuries in the US, are expected to rally, reflecting investor appetite for low-risk assets.

Crude oil prices are also benefitting from the uncertainty, driven primarily by concerns over potential supply disruptions.

As investors navigate the evolving situation, the search for safe-haven assets underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in global markets.

The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East continue to shape investor behavior, with a keen focus on developments that could impact global economic stability.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Decline for Third Consecutive Day on Weaker Economic Data and Inventory Concerns

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Crude Oil

Oil prices extended their decline for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as concerns over weaker economic data and increasing commercial inventories in the United States weighed on oil outlook.

Brent oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 51 cents to $89.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 41 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

The softening of oil prices this week reflects the impact of economic headwinds on global demand, dampening the gains typically seen from geopolitical tensions.

Market observers are closely monitoring how Israel might respond to Iran’s recent attack, though analysts suggest that this event may not significantly affect Iran’s oil exports.

John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, remarked on the situation, noting that oil prices are readjusting after factoring in a “war premium” and facing setbacks in hopes for interest rate cuts.

The anticipation for interest rate cuts received a blow as top U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, refrained from providing guidance on the timing of such cuts. This dashed investors’ expectations for significant reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Similarly, Britain’s slower-than-expected inflation rate in March hinted at a delay in the Bank of England’s rate cut, while inflation across the euro zone suggested a potential rate cut by the European Central Bank in June.

Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. crude inventories persist, with a Reuters poll indicating a rise of about 1.4 million barrels last week. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is awaited, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Adding to the mix, Tengizchevroil announced plans for maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May, further influencing market sentiment.

As the oil market navigates through a landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical events, investors remain vigilant for cues that could dictate future price movements.

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