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Markets Today – Ukraine De-Escalation, ECB, BoE, Unemployment, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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Markets

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Risk appetite is much improved on Tuesday following reports that Russia is pulling back some troops, a significant de-escalation that makes the prospect of an invasion this week much less likely.

The Kremlin maintains that it never intended to invade Ukraine and the return of some troops to their regular bases following military exercises is proceeding as was always planned. While risks remain elevated, this looks like a big step in the right direction, and investors, like everyone else, are breathing a huge sigh of relief.

European stocks are up more than 1% and US futures are eyeing a similar open, while oil and gold are paring gains from the last couple of sessions. The mood will no doubt continue to lift if troops continue to return to bases and leaders stop talking up the prospect of an imminent invasion, which appears to have brought amusement to some in recent days.

With diplomatic efforts set to continue, starting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ visit to the Kremlin today, we could see sentiment continue to improve in the coming days. That could allow stocks to make up more lost ground as Ukraine developments have compounded fears around inflation and interest rates.

Pressure growing on ECB and BoE

Data from across Europe this morning has shown the labour market remained healthy into the new year despite the omicron setback. The euro area has seen employment exceed its pre-pandemic level while the economy grew by 0.3% in the final three months of the year. The resilience displayed through the latest wave highlights how tight the labour market is and will continue to pile pressure on the ECB as it tackles unusually high inflation.

The Bank of England is all too aware of those pressures, having already raised interest rates at each of the last two meetings and a repeat is expected in the coming months as well. Wages are continuing to rise as Christmas bonus’ appeared to exceed expectations, which contributed to earnings rising 4.3% in the three months to December, a faster rate than a month earlier and far higher than the 3.8% consensus. The pressure is not easing up on central banks, although inflation is expected to peak over the next couple of months.

$100 oil delayed as Ukraine tensions ease

Oil prices have pulled back from yesterday’s highs and are off more than 3% on the day as invasion fears recede. Brent and WTI had been on the march to $100 but the removal of troops has reduced the likelihood of conflict and, in turn, the risk premium. We could quickly see that change over the coming days if the situation deteriorates but if not, we could see a further decline in the price.

There’s been so much talk of triple-figure crude and the threat of war in Ukraine clearly accelerated that. We could still see oil hit $100 even without an invasion but it will take a little longer. The market is still extremely tight, which is why we’re seeing the prospect of an invasion drive up prices so much. In the absence of some unilateral action from Saudi Arabia, or a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, it may still not be too far away.

Gold appeal wanes on Ukraine de-escalation

Soaring demand for gold in recent days has cooled after Russia confirmed the planned withdrawal of some troops; the first sign of de-escalation on the Ukrainian border amid warnings of an invasion. The yellow metal was boosted by a combination of its safe-haven reputation and its inflation hedge qualities as oil and gas prices spiked.

It peaked earlier today around $1,880 but now finds itself testing $1,850, a level that prior to the invasion warnings on Friday had been a notable level of resistance. Should gold erase its invasion premium, we could see it move back towards $1,830 where it had stabilised around the middle of last week.

Bitcoin looking to build on positive momentum

Bitcoin remained quite stable throughout the uncertainty of recent days. It had already started to pull back from $45,500 as profit-taking kicked in but the downside since Friday has been fairly mild by its own standards. It’s certainly benefiting from improved sentiment today though, rallying almost 5% and suddenly last week’s highs look quite vulnerable. A break above here would put it back into healthy territory and we could see it gather momentum from there.

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Energy

NLC Describes President Tinubu’s Involvement In Dangote Refinery Petrol Pricing As ‘Fraud’

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Joe Ajaero

The President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero, has described the involvement of the President Bola Tinubu-led government in deciding the price of petrol produced by Dangote Refinery as fraud.

Ajaero spoke during a media briefing at the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Lagos on Wednesday.

According to him, the inconsistencies in policies and fraudulent actions of the Tinubu-led administration are the cause of the ongoing conflict between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery.

The NLC President criticised the current administration for attempting to interfere with the operations of private entities like Dangote.

He countered the government’s attempt to dictate the price of petrol produced by Dangote, describing it as fraudulent.

Ajaero said: “In a truly deregulated market, there should be no interference in how private sector entities like Dangote operate. Imposing restrictions or dictating prices goes against the principles of a free market.

“For a locally produced product, with no reliance on imported dollars or landing costs, they’re demanding he sells it at the same price as the imported ones. That’s both fraudulent and unacceptable.

“What you’re witnessing is a mix of fraud and policy inconsistency. Nigerians were led to believe that the sector had been deregulated, and in a deregulated market, competition and choice should prevail. So why is there now an attempt to control how much Dangote should sell his product for?

“When the Port Harcourt refinery becomes operational, both NNPC and Dangote should be able to sell freely. But trying to dictate Dangote’s pricing is dishonest.

“This is the time for Nigerians to speak out. We were told that deregulation would put the private sector in charge and limit government interference in business. Now, the government is trying to regulate how private businesses should price their products.

“They expect him to sell at the same price as the imported product, even though it was produced locally without the additional landing costs. That’s outright fraud.”

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Gain Amid U.S. Production Woes and Rate Cut Expectations

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Crude gained on Tuesday following Hurricane Francine disruption in the U.S. and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the U.S.

These two factors have boosted traders’ sentiment in the oil market despite concerns about global demand and slowing growth in China.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, rose by 36 cents, or 0.5% to $73.11 per barrel while the U.S. crude oil gained 53 cents, or 0.8% to settle $70.62 per barrel.

Both closed higher in the previous trading session as the market reacted to the impact of Hurricane Francine on U.S. Gulf Coast production.

More than 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline as of Monday, according to the U.S.

According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), the disruption has raised concerns over short-term supply shortages and contribution to the upward momentum in prices.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG said “while the market is seeing near-term stabilization, the fragile state of China’s economy and anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could limit further gains.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to announce a rate cut later this week, with futures markets pricing in a 69% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction.

Lower interest rates are favourable for oil prices as they reduce borrowing costs and encourage economic growth.

“Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut are lifting sentiment across the commodities sector”, stated ANZ analysts.

The market, however, remains cautious due to lower-than-expected demand from China, the world’s largest importer of the commodity.

Chinese data released over the weekend showed that China’s oil refinery output dropped for the fifth consecutive month in August. This signals weaker domestic demand and declining export margins.

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Crude Oil

New Petrol Prices to Range Between N857 and N865 Following NNPC-Dangote Deal

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Petrol

Hopes for cheaper Premium Motor Spirit (PM), otherwise known as petrol, rose, last night, as indications emerged that the product may sell for between N857 and N865 per litre after the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) starts lifting the product from Dangote Refinery today.

It was learnt that the NNPCL, as the sole off-taker of petrol from the refinery, is projected to lift the product at N960/N980 per litre and sell to marketers at N840/N850 to enable Nigerians to get it at between N857 and N865 at the pump at filling stations.

However, whether uniform product prices would apply at filling stations nationwide was unclear.

As of yesterday, petrol sold at N855 per litre at NNPCL retail stations in Lagos and it was the cheapest anyone could buy the product while major marketers sold around N920.

At independent marketers’ outlets, the price was over N1,000. Elsewhere across the country, PMS sold for more than N1,200 per litre.

Sources said the new arrangement from the NNPCL and Dangote Refinery negotiations, spanning more than one week, would allow Nigerians to get petrol at between N857 and N865 per litre and represents an average under-recovery of about N130 to NNPCL.

President Bola Tinubu, Sunday Vanguard was made to understand by a Presidency source, made it clear to the negotiating parties that “the price at which petrol would be sold to Nigerians should not be such that would place heavy financial burden on them while dealing with the new reality of the prevailing price”.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has, meanwhile, expressed optimism that the deal would reduce the pressure on foreign exchange (FX) demands and shore up the value of the Naira – presently, between 30% and 40% of FX demands go into the importation of PMS.

Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd., Olufemi Soneye, who confirmed the readiness of the company to start lifting petrol today, told Sunday Vanguard, yesterday: “NNPC Ltd has started deploying our trucks and vessels to the Dangote Refinery to lift PMS in preparation for the scheduled lifting date of September 15th, as set by the refinery.

“Our trucks and personnel are already on-site, ready to begin lifting. We expect more trucks, and the deployment will continue throughout the weekend so we can start loading as soon as the refinery begins operations on September 15, 2024.”

Soneye hinted that at least 100 trucks had already arrived at the refinery for the petrol lifting, adding that the number of trucks could increase to 300 by Saturday evening.

On his part, Executive Secretary, of Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Olufemi Adewole, said: “We have been lifting diesel (AGO) and aviation fuel (jet fuel) and we look forward to lifting petrol (PMS).”

On pricing, he said: “We await clarity in respect of the pricing mode, and once that is clarified, we’ll do the needful towards meeting the energy needs of Nigerians.”

Yesterday, Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy said the structuring of the NNPCL, Dangote Refinery deal in Naira would assist in reducing pressure on the local currency.

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