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Stocks Lower After US Data, Patient RBA, GBP Testing 1.35 Ahead of BOE, Awaiting OPEC+ Decision, Exxon Investing in New Wells, Gold Rallies Above $1800, Bitcoin Hovers

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By Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

US stocks are getting pulled all over the place as investors digest both a wrath of economic data and a chorus of Fed speak that has de-escalated aggressive tightening fears for now.  Impressive earnings from UPS and Exxon helped risk appetite early but that faded quickly as traders remain fixated over everything about inflation.  For about 10-minutes much of Wall Street took a break to hear the news that Tom Brady announced his retirement.  

Equities extended their declines after the ISM manufacturing report and JOLTS data showed inflationary pressures intensified.  The ISM, JOLTs, and construction data all support the economy is in a good place, except for the 800-pound inflation gorilla in the room.  The ISM prices paid index soared to from 68.2 to 76.1 and the JOLTS data showed the labor market remains super tight as job openings rose to 10.93 million, much higher than the consensus estimate of 10.3 million. Pricing pressures are still ascending at a pace that should concern the Fed and wage pressures are only going to get hotter as the number of job openings increase.

Before the US economic data, a lot of traders were thinking it is time to forget about a half-point rate hike in March, unless inflation gets significantly hotter.  Wall Street was starting to lean towards a 25-basis point increase in March, but that won’t remain the base case if wage pressures and prices paid continue to soar.  For risk appetite to reassert itself, investors need to be convinced that the Fed will not become too aggressive in tightening policy.

RBA

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates steady and decided to discontinue its bond buying program this month.  The Australian dollar initially declined over the dovish surprise as the central bank decided to take a patient stance with inflation, noting they will continue to monitor it and showed no urgency to deliver rate hikes. The bank made it clear that ending QE does not mean rate increases are imminent.

BOE

The Bank of England is expected to deliver another rate increase, this time lifting rates by 25 basis points to 0.50% and signal that more are coming.  The BOE has telegraphed that they will reduce the size of the balance sheet once interest rates are back to the 0.50% level. The ending of bond reinvestments would mean that £25 billion of gilts would not be bought this fiscal year. The bank is getting closer to selling bonds, but that might not happen until the summer.

Oil/Exxon

Crude prices edged lower ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on output and after Exxon’s quarterly update showed the oil giant was ready to significantly increase its investment in new wells.  Fears of an OPEC+ surprise has many energy traders locked in profits. OPEC+ is expected to stick to the script and deliver a 400,000 bpd increase next month and when you factor in that many members are struggling to hit their quotas, oil seems poised to head higher.  Fears of disruption to supplies will remain elevated given the winter blast hitting the north and the geopolitical risks abroad.

WTI crude seems poised to resume its bullish trend as long as the Saudis don’t pull a surprise at the OPEC+ meeting and make a push for a larger increase over output. The Saudis are seeing US drillers are beginning to invest in new wells and that could trigger some market share fears.

Exxon delivered impressive results as revenue surged over 80% year over year and profit posted the best gain since 2014.  The oil giant is going to have a strong year as they continue to focus on cost cutting and buying back shares, while benefiting from a new lower breakeven oil price fell to $41 a barrel.  Exxon is boosting its spending on new wells by as much as 45%.  The company narrowed its capital expenditure guidance for the year, which still supports a significant investment in new wells.

Gold

Gold is bouncing back as expectations for aggressive global central bank tightening eased after the RBA showed they are in no rush to raise rates and as some traders doubt the Fed will kickoff tightening with a half-point increase.  The Fed’s Harker signaled that he currently supports the idea of four 25 basis point increases this year and is not convinced they should start with a 50 bps increase in March.

Gold also got a boost on fears that nonfarm payrolls would have a big miss after White House press secretary Psaki said around 9 million people called out sick in early January.

Gold fell to session lows after the ISM and JOLTS data sparked inflationary fears, sending the 10-year Treasury yield back above 1.80%.  Gold is hovering around $1800 but if selling pressure returns, it could get ugly quick as momentum sellers are watching.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin will continue to trade like a risky asset and most likely benefit if central banks continue to show some hesitancy in turning very aggressive with tightening monetary policy.  The BOE and ECB rate decisions might have a larger impact on cryptos than normal as Wall Street is looking for a cue on which direction risk appetite is headed. A lot of January data in the US is expected to be soft and that should continue to support the Fed’s growing chorus of members that want an interest rate increase cycle that does not disrupt the economy.

Bitcoin should continue to stabilize here but if it breaks $40,000, that would surprise many traders and could see some bullish momentum.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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