Bitcoin volatility peaks at 3pm before the New York Stock Exchange closes as well as spiking at 3am Eastern Standard Time, according to new analysis from GNY, the leading blockchain-based machine learning business.
Its analysis of trading data throughout 2021 found 3pm in the US – or 8pm in the UK – is the time to avoid for Bitcoin traders wanting to minimize volatility while 3am in the US – 1.30pm in India – is also a time for high volatility.
GNY’s analysis of 25 input data features found that trading data – whether volumes are high or low on average or whether Bitcoin prices are seeing major positive or negative moves – is the only mathematical relationship with volatility.
Factors such as LIBOR, gold prices, the Federal Funds rate or US inflation have no mathematical relationship with Bitcoin volatility.
GNY analysis reveals daily average Bitcoin volatility was 4.1% last year with daily volatility ranging between 4% and 10% when trading volume is above average and between 2% and 5% when volumes are below average.
GNY’s analysis of the most volatile days for Bitcoin trading in 2021 found August 2nd was the most volatile day with average daily volatility of 18.79% followed by May 19th with 13.83% and January 21st with 13.28%.
Its own research (2) shows one in five (22%) Bitcoin traders who trade at least $1,000 a month in the cryptocurrency expect the level of volatility to increase dramatically in 2022, and further 57% say it will increase slightly. Only 18% expect it to fall or stay the same.
Cosmas Wong, CEO GNY said: “Our mission at GNY is to bring machine learning tools to the crypto community to facilitate smarter business and trading decisions. Predicting Bitcoin volatility is the most impactful metric in blockchain right now.
“Our research has helped us understand the time based fluctuations in price and volume, as well as the patterns generated by market activity. Our nuanced machine learning models allow us to create a superior BTC prediction model.”
GNY recently launched the BTC Range Report, providing some of the most accurate forecasts around Bitcoin volatility of any platform or service available today. Extensive testing of BTC Range Report has delivered a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of between 3% and 7% making it one of the most powerful BTC prediction tools in the market. The average of the majority of competitor BTC prediction tools tested by GNY was 10%, but it was as high as 17% for some platforms.
GNY believes that today’s altcoin traders will be tomorrow’s bitcoin traders. So to launch the BTC Range Report GNY entered into an exclusive partnership with CoinSniper which is widely regarded as the #1 source for the best new cryptocurrency projects. Subscribers to the CoinSniper GNY newsletter providers traders with exclusive content and previews to measure the Range Report’s accuracy for themselves.
The BTC Range Report is available every Tuesday at 9am EST and spans a seven-day period. For the price of just $10, it can be purchased with ETH or GNY tokens, and access is provided directly through the user’s Metamask wallet. Version 1 of the GNY BTC Range Report offers:
- GNY’s daily projected volatility range for BTC as a graph and a table
- a forecast of which day will hold the weekly high and the weekly low
- forecast of daily volumes
- historical daily high and low prediction graph for the last two weeks VS BTC Actuals
- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for GNY historical daily high and low predictions VS BTC Actuals for the previous two weeks
Bitcoin Flash Crash: Is This a Buying Opportunity?
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices will “robustly rebound” after suddenly plummeting on Wednesday evening after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting were published, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.
This is the prediction being made by long-time crypto advocate Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, as the Bitcoin price shed $3,000 in just a few hours of hours, dropping from more than $47,000 to just under $44,000.
He says: “The minutes from the Fed have increased expectations that the central bank of the world’s largest economy will now move faster to raise interest rates to fight soaring inflation.
“As a result, there’s been a knee-jerk sell-off on Wall Street and the crypto market as it is perceived by some traders that such a move puts at risk the liquidity that has benefitted many asset classes, including Bitcoin.”
He continues: “However, I believe that we will see Bitcoin robustly rebound as the dust settles. This will then boost others in the crypto market.
“This is because Bitcoin and other digital currencies are widely regarded as a shield against inflation mainly due to its limited supply, which is not influenced by its price.
“In this latest inflationary period, Bitcoin has outperformed gold which, until now, has always been almost universally hailed as the ultimate inflation hedge.”
In this climate, says Nigel Green, and amid some peaks and troughs along the way “as markets never move in a straight line”, we can expect to see the price of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies “revert to an upward trajectory.”
Last month, after the world’s largest cryptocurrency came off its all-time high of nearly $70,000 in November, he said: “Like many serious crypto investors, I’m embracing this short-term volatility for longer-term gains.
“I’m using the lower prices of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to top-up my portfolio. Why? Because like many major corporations, financial institutions, governments, prestigious universities, and household-name investing legends, I’m confident that digital currencies are the inevitable future of money.
“In our increasingly tech-driven, globalized world, it makes sense to hold digital, borderless, decentralized currencies. In addition, adoption and demand are increasing all the time, whilst at the same time, supply is decreasing.”
Of the latest Bitcoin price slump, Nigel Green concludes: “For people who are serious about building long-term wealth, this temporary volatility will be viewed as most other bouts of market turbulence: a buying opportunity. ”
Three More Countries to Adopt Bitcoin as Legal Tender in 2022?
Bitcoin will be adopted as legal tender in three more countries in 2022, predicts the CEO of a game-changing global financial giant.
The ultra-bullish prediction from Nigel Green of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, doubles down on one made on Sunday by the President of El Salvador.
To his 3.2 million followers, Nayib Bukele tweeted a series of predictions about Bitcoin, including “2 more countries will adopt it as legal tender.” Amongst the others were that the cryptocurrency will hit $100,000 this year.
El Salvador made history in September by becoming the first country in the world to make Bitcoin an official currency alongside the U.S. dollar.
Mr Green says: “I’m confident that the young, maverick President, Nayib Bukele, is correct about other countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender in 2022.
“But I would go further still than he did. I believe that it’s likely that three more nations will follow El Salvador’s pioneering, future-focused lead into the digital age.”
He continues: “Low-income countries have long suffered because their currencies are weak and extremely vulnerable to market changes and that triggers rampant inflation.
“This is why most developing countries become reliant upon major ‘first-world’ currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, to complete transactions.
“However, reliance on another country’s currency also comes with its own set of, often very costly, problems. A stronger U.S. dollar, for example, will weigh on emerging-market economic prospects, since developing countries have taken on so much dollar-denominated debt in the past decades.”
The deVere boss goes on to add: “By adopting cryptocurrency as legal tender these countries then immediately have a currency that isn’t influenced by market conditions within their own economy, nor directly from just one other country’s economy.
“Bitcoin operates on a global scale and therefore is impacted by wider, global economic changes.”
In addition, he notes, cryptocurrencies could also help “bolster financial inclusion for individuals and businesses” in developing countries as they “can circumnavigate the biases” of traditional banks and other financial services providers.
Following President Bukele’s bold tweet about more countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender this year, his followers posted opinions about which nations they believe would be likely to do so. These included Tonga, Turkey and Bolivia, to name a few.
For his part, Nigel Green says: “Due to their similar reliance on remittances, amongst other factors, other countries, including Panama, Paraguay, Guatemala and Honduras, could also adopt Bitcoin.
“Just after El Salvador’s adoption back in September, Panama announced a bill to make the cryptocurrency legal tender in the country. Also, Congressman Gabriel Silva tweeted that this could create jobs in Panama and lure investment from other nations.
“A Paraguayan bill moving to regulate the trading and mining of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the country passed the Senate last month. Is this the first step to making Bitcoin legal tender?”
The central banks of Honduras and Guatemala are both eying digital currencies too, according to officials, but they are – for now – taking a different approach.
“They’re currently studying central bank digital currencies (CBDC). This demonstrates, again, that they too are confident that the future of money is digital.
“However, I think they will ultimately embrace an existing cryptocurrency as a legal tender, as El Salvador has done,” says Nigel Green.
He concludes: “President Bukele is right. Other countries will indeed follow El Salvador’s example and make Bitcoin legal tender in 2022.
“How many remains unclear, of course. But when it happens, it will be a snowball effect.”
Bitcoin Slump? Yes, But Ignore the Crypto Deniers
Bitcoin is likely to record its worst monthly performance since May, but you should “ignore the crypto deniers” if you want to seriously build your wealth for the long term, warns the CEO of a global financial giant.
The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes amid a cryptocurrency slump that’s triggered the world’s largest digital asset to shed 17% during the last month of the year, putting it on track for its worst performance since May, when it lost 35%. Other cryptocurrenices have also fallen during this period.
He says: “The Bitcoin bashers, the crypto cynics, the digital deniers are out in force at the moment, trotting out the same old stale arguments about cryptocurrencies.
“However, investors who are focused on building their wealth for the long-term should ignore their tired rants. Instead, they should look at the data.
“For the third consecutive year, Bitcoin has outperformed both stocks and gold.”
Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up almost 65%, meanwhile, the S&P500, the benchmark index of the world’s largest economy, manages 27.6%, and gold is down around 7%.
Mr Green continues: “I’ll tell you why this is: because digital money is the inevitable future in an ever more digital world.
“This is increasingly being universally accepted by institutional investors, Wall Street giants, household name investing legends, leading academic institutions, governments, and major multinational corporations.”
Meanwhile, says the deVere boss, “the deniers” are wheeling out old arguments against digital currencies, “all of which have been answered” repeatedly.
“They have two main – and baseless – anti-crypto messages.
“First, they say that cryptocurrencies are used by criminals. However, law enforcement agencies can more easily catch criminals who use the public ledgers on which cryptocurrencies are run compared to those who use cash or other forms of payment with no record. Are these people really saying cash isn’t used by criminals?
“Second, they insist that the crypto market is volatile. This is true, but is it necessarily always a bad thing? Many investors embrace this short-term volatility for longer-term gains. They use the lower prices of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to top-up portfolios.”
Earlier this month as the downturn began, he noted that “Bitcoin panic-sellers are practically giving away their cryptocurrencies to wealthy buyers” who will use the digital assets as an inflation shield.
“This scenario seems particularly likely in the current situation as they are increasingly worried that their cash, and therefore spending power, is being eroded by soaring inflation.
Bitcoin and other digital currencies are widely regarded as a shield against inflation mainly because of its limited supply, which is not influenced by its price.
Mr Green concludes: “Borderless, global, decentralised currencies are the future.
“It’s my view that to create, build and protect wealth for the long-term, the crypto deniers’ ideologies should be dismissed and the data from the financial markets should speak for itself.”
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