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New Analysis from AI Company Identifies Daily Bitcoin Volatility Peaks

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Bitcoin volatility peaks at 3pm before the New York Stock Exchange closes as well as spiking at 3am Eastern Standard Time, according to new analysis from GNY, the leading blockchain-based machine learning business.

Its analysis of trading data throughout 2021 found 3pm in the US – or 8pm in the UK – is the time to avoid for Bitcoin traders wanting to minimize volatility while 3am in the US – 1.30pm in India – is also a time for high volatility.

GNY’s analysis of 25 input data features found that trading data – whether volumes are high or low on average or whether Bitcoin prices are seeing major positive or negative moves – is the only mathematical relationship with volatility.

Factors such as LIBOR, gold prices, the Federal Funds rate or US inflation have no mathematical relationship with Bitcoin volatility.

GNY analysis reveals daily average Bitcoin volatility was 4.1% last year with daily volatility ranging between 4% and 10% when trading volume is above average and between 2% and 5% when volumes are below average.

GNY’s analysis of the most volatile days for Bitcoin trading in 2021 found August 2nd was the most volatile day with average daily volatility of 18.79% followed by May 19th with 13.83% and January 21st with 13.28%.

Its own research (2) shows one in five (22%) Bitcoin traders who trade at least $1,000 a month in the cryptocurrency expect the level of volatility to increase dramatically in 2022, and further 57% say it will increase slightly. Only 18% expect it to fall or stay the same.

Cosmas Wong, CEO GNY said: “Our mission at GNY is to bring machine learning tools to the crypto community to facilitate smarter business and trading decisions. Predicting Bitcoin volatility is the most impactful metric in blockchain right now.

“Our research has helped us understand the time based fluctuations in price and volume, as well as the patterns generated by market activity. Our nuanced machine learning models allow us to create a superior BTC prediction model.”

GNY recently launched the BTC Range Report, providing some of the most accurate forecasts around Bitcoin volatility of any platform or service available today. Extensive testing of BTC Range Report has delivered a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of between 3% and 7% making it one of the most powerful BTC prediction tools in the market. The average of the majority of competitor BTC prediction tools tested by GNY was 10%, but it was as high as 17% for some platforms.

GNY believes that today’s altcoin traders will be tomorrow’s bitcoin traders. So to launch the BTC Range Report GNY entered into an exclusive partnership with CoinSniper which is widely regarded as the #1  source for the best new cryptocurrency projects. Subscribers to the CoinSniper GNY newsletter providers traders with exclusive content and previews to measure the Range Report’s accuracy for themselves.

The BTC Range Report is available every Tuesday at 9am EST and spans a seven-day period. For the price of just $10, it can be purchased with ETH or GNY tokens, and access is provided directly through the user’s Metamask wallet. Version 1 of the GNY BTC Range Report offers:

  • GNY’s daily projected volatility range for BTC as a graph and a table
  • a forecast of which day will hold the weekly high and the weekly low
  • forecast of daily volumes
  • historical daily high and low prediction graph for the last two weeks VS BTC Actuals
  • mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for GNY historical daily high and low predictions VS BTC Actuals for the previous two weeks

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Bitcoin Holds Above $67,000 Amid Trump Win Bets

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Bitcoin is holding above $67,000 after yesterday’s correction after breaching the $69,000 level and rising to its highest level since late July.

Yesterday’s correction comes after an upward trend that investors are pushing to continue in light of a set of supporting factors, whether from the massive inflows into cryptoinvestment products or from more bets on Donald Trump winning the White House again.

Cryptocurrency investment products recorded massive inflows last week, reaching $2.2 billion, which represents the highest level since last July, with Bitcoin accounting for most of these flows that went to US spot ETFs, according to CoinShares. Net flows to these funds amounted to more than $294 million yesterday alone, according to SoSo Value.

This comes with two weeks left until the US presidential election. While the Polymarket betting market indicates that Republican candidate Trump is likely to win with a 63% probability, the betting site has sparked controversy over who is behind the significant increase in Trump bets. In contrast to Polymarket’s results, the poll average indicates that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is ahead by 48.2% compared to 46.4% for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight.

While this disparity and fluctuation in polls and predictions is likely to keep cryptocurrencies vulnerable to sharp volatility in the coming days, as the identity of the winner of the White House presidency might shape the future of the industry.

However, the futures market is presenting a mixed story and is questioning the sustainability of Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Bitcoin futures open interest regained its record level of more than $40 billion yesterday, according to CoinGlass, despite the price correction. This correction only resulted in a very small liquidation of the long positions of about $28 million yesterday.

Of that $40 billion, $12.5 billion was on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which also represents a new record high for Bitcoin futures on the US’s largest futures exchange. This reflects the increasing involvement of institutional investors in driving price action.

What is concerning is the decline in the long/short ratio from 1.04 on Sunday to 0.94 today, which may reflect increasing bearish bets in futures market, which in turn may indicate a possible reversal of the bullish trend and a renewal of yesterday’s losses soon.

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

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Bitcoin Fails to Hold $63,000 Amid Weak Risk Appetite, Growing Selling Pressure

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Bitcoin remains below $63,000 after failing to hold above it over the past two days while Ethereum is also struggling to reclaim $2,440.

The crypto market has been trading sideways since the beginning of this week.

The cautious moves in the crypto market come amid uncertainty over a range of economic and political factors in the US and geopolitics in the Middle East.

Add to that the potential selling pressure that the US government may exert with its permission to sell around 70,000 Bitcoin.

The Supreme Court has allowed the US Marshals Service to proceed with the sale of 69,370 Bitcoins seized from the Silk Road online store, which would be the largest sale of its kind in history. While the nature and pace of this selling is not yet known, it will not necessarily put downward pressure on prices if it is done in over-the-counter (OTC)
transactions, according to Beincrypto.

As for the economic side, in light of the surprise labor market numbers that were much better than expected and Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech, hopes for a rapid continuation of interest rate cuts this year have diminished. While the relatively high rates remain for a longer period and the continued rise in Treasury bond yields will weaken appetite for risky assets in general, including cryptocurrencies.

Whereas, after the hypothesis of a half-percentage point cut at the next November meeting was the most likely, it has now become excluded in the Fed Fund futures market, and the probability of a quarter-percentage point cut has become 87%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The remaining 13% is for the possibility of keeping current rates unchanged.

The state of caution may also prevail in the markets in the coming weeks, as we anticipate the presidential elections in the United States, which will begin next month. While the outcome of these elections could cause a structural shift in the crypto industry.

Far away, in the Middle East, markets are still anticipating the nature of the expected escalation in the region, especially regarding the nature of the Israeli response to the unprecedented attack from Iran and the nature of the counter-response. While one of the most prominent scenarios is targeting energy facilities, which would bring inflation back to the forefront, which in turn may require central banks to keep interest rates high.

 

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US Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Record Net Outflows Amid Global Market Uncertainty

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US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.

Investors pulled close to $1.2 billion in total from the group of 12 ETFs over the eight days through Sept. 6, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The drop comes amid a rocky period for shares and commodities on economic growth worries.

Mixed US jobs data and deflationary pressure in China are both taking a toll on traders. The uncertainty is buffeting the cryptocurrency market, whose gyrations have become more closely tied to moves in stocks based on a rising short-term correlation between the two.

Bitcoin has struggled in September, posting a loss of approximately 7%. But the largest digital asset eked out modest gains over the weekend and climbed roughly 1% to $54,870 as of 1pm on Monday in Singapore.

“The small relief rally seems to be driven in part by some prominent influencers closing out their shorts,” said Sean McNulty, director of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

He cited as an example a recent social media post from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX trading platform.

An improved showing by Donald Trump, the pro-crypto Republican nominee for the US presidential election, in polls and prediction markets may also be playing a role, McNulty said.

He reported greater demand for options hedges in case Tuesday’s debate between Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris stirs volatility. Harris has yet to detail her stance on crypto.

The US Bitcoin ETFs investing directly in the original cryptocurrency debuted in January with much fanfare. Unexpectedly strong demand for the funds helped to drive the token to a record high of $73,798 in March.

The inflows subsequently moderated and Bitcoin’s year-to-date rally has cooled to about 30%.

The token will likely trade in its recent $53,000 to $57,000 range until the US releases consumer-price data on Wednesday, said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for trading in digital-asset derivatives.

The inflation numbers may shape expectations for the pace of anticipated monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the US.

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