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FGN Budget – an Expansionary Stance in 2022

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2018 budget

The 2022 FGN budget titled Economic Growth and Sustainability was signed by President Buhari on 31 December ’21. The aggregate expenditure is estimated at N17.1trn, which is 18% higher than the 2021 FGN aggregate expenditure of N14.6trn.

The aggregate amount allocated for capital expenditure in the 2022 budget is N5.96trn. This represents 35% of total expenditure (above the 30% target set by the current administration) and is 14% higher than the 2021 provision of N5.23trn. The budget has an estimated deficit of N6.39trn, approximately 4.1% of total GDP (in 2020) and is slightly above the 3% ceiling set by the fiscal responsibility Act 2007 (FRA).

The fiscal expenditure also comprises of statutory transfer of N869.7bn, debt service of N3.6trn, sinking fund of N270.7bn, recurrent (non-debt) expenditure of N6.9trn, and special interventions (recurrent) of N350.0bn.

The assumptions for the 2022 national budget include an oil price benchmark of USD62/b, 1.9mbpd in oil production, an exchange rate of N410.15/USD, GDP growth rate of 4.2% y/y and an inflation rate of 13%.

Furthermore, the budget deficit is expected to be financed by foreign borrowings of N2.6trn and domestic borrowings of N2.6trn, privatisation proceeds of N90.7bn, and multilateral/bi-lateral loan drawdowns of N1.2trn.

Regarding debt sustainability, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 30% at end-September’21. It is relatively low when compared with other African economies such as Kenya (65%), South Africa (80%) and Egypt (90%). However, the country’s debt service-to-revenue ratio stood at 76% as at November ’21, one of the highest among African economies.

The aggregate revenue available to fund the 2022 national budget is projected at N10.7trn. The projected revenue is 32.3% higher than the previous year and comprises of an estimated oil revenue of N3.4trn (31.3% of total revenue) and non-oil revenue of N7.3trn (68.7% of total revenue).

Turning to revenue mobilisation, the FGN plans to grow the revenue-to-GDP ratio from about 8% to 15% by 2025. In line with the 2022 budget’s priorities, some critical policies in the Finance Act 2021 that could assist with achieving this include the imposition of excise duty on non-alcoholic, carbonated and sweetened beverages as well as the technology reforms by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) to enhance tax administration and increase revenue.

Based on our estimates, between January to November ‘21, the FGN’s expenditure is 5.9% lower than the prorated budget of N13.4trn while the revenue is 25.9% less than the prorated budget of N7.4trn. Additionally, we note that debt servicing is 38% higher than the prorated budget of N3.0trn.

The FGN aims to further strengthen frameworks for concessions and public-private partnerships (PPP) as well as explore opportunities in green finance, such as implementing the sovereign green bond programme and debt-for-climate swap mechanisms. The national budget is expected to target the financing of critical development projects and programmes which should improve the economic and business environment.

Proper fiscal housekeeping is required to keep the economy afloat in the near-term and drive it towards double digit growth in the medium-to-long term. Capital expenditure should be maximised to raise the potential of revenue generation and growth in the non-oil economy. Although there are existing PPP initiatives by the FGN, increased private sector participation is still required.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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