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Nigeria in Focus

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The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade as N13.28trn in Q3 ‘21, representing an increase of 10% on the preceding quarter and a y/y increase of 59%. Compared with Q2 ‘21, the total export value rose by just 1% to N5.13trn, and the import value rose by 17% to N8.15trn.

The net result was a deficit of N3.02trn, which followed a deficit of N1.87trn the previous quarter. This makes eight consecutive trade deficits. The data were drawn primarily from the Nigeria Customs Service.

• Total trade in 2020 declined primarily due to lower exports. The implementation of lockdowns and restrictions had an adverse effect on export activity last year. The total trade value as a percentage of GDP stood at 21% in 2020. In Q3 ’21, total trade as a percentage of GDP stood at 8.7%.

• For Nigeria, the NBS notes that the majority of imports in Q3 ’21 originated from East Asia (China, especially). The value of imported agricultural goods. Manufactured products as well as oil-related products rose by 21% q/q, 14% q/q and 35% q/q respectively.

• Regarding export destination, India remained the top exporting partner for Nigeria in Q3 ‘21. The five top exports partners were India, (14.8%) Spain (12.2%), Italy (8.7%), France (7.1%), and the Netherlands (4.7%). These five
countries accounted for 47.5% of the total exports in Q3 ’21.

• As usual, crude oil accounted for the largest share (78%) of total exports in Q3. However, the value of crude oil exports declined by 1.3% q/q but rose by 66% y/y. The crude oil price (Bonny Light) averaged USD73.8/b in Q3.

• We note that raw cocoa beans, sesame seeds, cigarettes, natural rubber and aluminium featured as non-oil export products in Q3 ’21.

• Nigeria exported goods valued at N347bn to fellow members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), compared with N363bn the previous quarter. This represented 52% of total exports within Africa.
Meanwhile, imports from ECOWAS accounted for 11% of the value of total imports.

• The leading port of operation during the quarter under review was the Apapa Port. Goods worth N4.7trn exited the country through this port. The next leading port of operation was Port Harcourt, through which goods worth N308bn were shipped to partner countries. Tin can Island was also very active and goods worth N104bn exited Nigeria through this port.

• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement is expected to contribute significantly towards the development of regional value chains. To maximise the benefits of the agreement, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector needs to be strengthened. Furthermore, local manufacturers need to significantly improve their service delivery and product standards if they are to be competitive in a burgeoning intra-continental marketplace.

• The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates that tariff reductions under the AfCFTA agreement will boost intra-African trade by over 51% by 2022 (or by as much as 100% if non-tariff barriers are reduced). The Federal Executive Council has ratified Nigeria’s membership of the AfCFTA.

Global/Regional in focus

The COVID-19 pandemic generated an unprecedented global shock, with a devastating effect on global trade largely due to the lockdown measures that were put in place across countries as a strategy to mitigate the pandemic’s spread. The impact on international trade was evident in the decline in commodity prices in the first quarter of 2020 (e.g. crude oil, copper, among others) as well as reduced manufacturing output and disrupted operations across global value chains. Based on data from the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the initial COVID-19 shock led to a -13.3% or USD569.9bn decline in global merchandise trade from USD4.3trn in Q1 ’20 to USD3.7trn in Q2 ’20.

However, due to increase in vaccination as well as reopening of economies, merchandise trade recovered to USD5.6trn in Q3 ’21 compared with USD4.9trn recorded in the corresponding period in 2020. This is also 16.4% above the average recorded over the past eight quarters (USD4.8trn).

Turning to the African landscape, the pandemic also adversely impacted the continent’s trade, particularly in 2020. For instance, in Q2 ’20 when the pandemic was at its peak, and the associated lockdown measures affected a large share of the global population, merchandise trade declined by 15.1% in Q2 ’20 to USD89.7bn compared with USD105.6bn recorded in the preceding quarter. However, there have been notable improvements in African trade in 2021 with global economies reopening and increase in vaccine uptake (African vaccination rate currently stands at 8.6%).

Intra-African trade is currently low as it accounts for less than 15% of total African exports, suggesting higher potential benefits from greater regional trade. However, when informal cross-border trade is taken into account, Africa records higher intraregional trade, particularly in agriculture. In some African countries, informal cross-border trade accounts for c.90% of official trade flow and contributes c.40% to total trade within regional economic communities.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement has the potential to alleviate the effects of COVID-19 in Africa and intra-African trade. The agreement has several benefits including the potential to boost economies and bolster trade diversity, encourage industrialisation, eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers as well as contribute to sustainable growth, among others.

At the last CIBN Banking and Finance conference held in September ‘21, a special session on AfCFTA was taken by Dr. Hippolyte Fofack, Chief Economist and Director of Research and International Cooperation Department at the African Export-Import Bank. He noted the numerous benefits of the AfCFTA agreement ranging from the deepening and acceleration of industrialisation to mutually reinforcing the relationship between regional integration and intra-African trade.

The question, therefore, is “what are the top sectors with high potential within AfCFTA markets?”. From our vantage point, top merchandise trade sectors include vehicles and transport equipment, agro-food products, energy, metals and machinery, as well as chemical products. As for the services sectors, we highlight; ICT, infrastructure and logistics, finance, banking and insurance, education as well as health.

The successful implementation of the AfCFTA to boost both extra- and intra-African trade hinges upon successfully tackling supply-side constraints, closing the trade financing gaps, excessive reliance on foreign currencies, among others. Industry sources suggest that Africa’s current untapped export potential amounts to USD21.9bn, equivalent to 43% of intra-African exports. The AfCFTA agreement can potentially add USD9.2bn worth of exports through partial tariff liberalisation over the next five years. Additionally, the agreement could boost employment and earning capacities among marginalised groups (i.e. women and youth).

Economy

Nigeria to Raise VAT to 10% Amid Revenue Crisis, Says Fiscal Policy Chairman

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Value added tax - Investors King

Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, has said the committee working on increasing the Valued Added Tax (VAT) from the current 7.5% to 10%.

Oyedele announced this during an interview on Channels TV’s Politics Today.

According to Oyedele, the tax law the committee drafted would be submitted to the National Assembly for approval.

He also said his committee was working to consolidate multiple taxes in Nigeria to ensure tax reduction.

He said, “We have significant issues in our tax revenue. We have issues of revenue generally which means tax and non-tax. You can describe the whole fiscal system in a state that is in crisis.

“When my committee was set up, we had three broad mandates. The first one was to look at governance: our finances as a country, borrowing, coordination within the federal government and across sub-national.

“The second one was revenue transformation. The revenue profile of the country is abysmally low. If you dedicate our whole revenue to fixing roads it will be insufficient. The third is on government assets.

“The law we are proposing to the National Assembly has the rate of 7.5% moving to 10% from 2025. We don’t know how soon they will be able to pass the law. Then subsequent increases are also indicated in terms of the year they will kick in.

“While we are doing that, we have a corresponding reduction in personal income tax. Anybody that is earning about N1.5 million a month or less, they will see their personal income tax come down. Companies will have income tax rate come down by 30% over the next two years to 25%. That is a significant reduction.

“Other taxes they pay are quite many: IT levy, education tax, etc. All these we are consolidating into a single one. They will pay 4% initially. That will go down to 2& in the next few years.”

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Economy

Nigerian Economy Surges 3.19% in Q2 2024, Service Sector Leads Growth

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Nigerian Breweries - Investors King

The Nigerian economy grew in the second quarter of 2024 by 3.19% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

This is an improvement from the 2.98% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2024 and the 2.51% achieved during the same period in 2023.

The growth was driven predominantly by the service sector, which saw a 3.79% growth during the quarter and contributed 58.76% to Nigeria’s aggregate GDP.

The service sector, which includes industries such as telecommunications, banking, and hospitality, has become a significant driver of economic activity in Africa’s largest economy as it diversifies away from its traditional reliance on oil and agriculture.

In addition to the strength of the service sector, the industry sector also posted a positive performance, growing by 3.53% during the quarter.

This is a notable recovery from the -1.94% decline recorded in the same period in 2023.

The industry sector includes manufacturing, construction, and utilities, which have benefitted from increased investments and improvements in energy supply.

The agriculture sector, a longstanding pillar of the Nigerian economy, experienced a modest growth of 1.41%, slightly lower than the 1.50% recorded in the second quarter of 2023.

Despite the slower growth, agriculture remains vital to Nigeria’s economy, providing employment to millions of Nigerians and contributing to food security.

The overall 3.19% growth in GDP highlights the resilience of the Nigerian economy despite ongoing challenges such as inflation, currency depreciation, and insecurity.

Analysts had predicted a modest growth rate of around 3.16% for the second quarter, closely aligning with the actual performance.

The Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) also forecasted Nigeria’s annual average GDP growth to reach approximately 3.07% in 2024, which is consistent with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) revised projections.

The Q2 GDP performance supports these forecasts, providing cautious optimism for the remainder of the year.

While the growth of the Nigerian economy is a positive development, challenges remain. Inflation, particularly in food prices, continues to strain household incomes, and the naira’s depreciation has increased the cost of imports.

Also, infrastructure deficits and insecurity in various regions of the country pose obstacles to sustained economic expansion.

Despite these challenges, the continued growth in the service and industry sectors demonstrates Nigeria’s capacity to adapt and evolve in an increasingly diversified economy. If these sectors maintain their current trajectory, they could help mitigate some of the pressures facing the economy and improve living standards for Nigerians.

The government’s focus on economic reforms, including efforts to attract foreign investment, improve infrastructure, and enhance security, will be crucial in sustaining and building on the positive GDP growth in the coming quarters.

Economic diversification remains a key goal, and the strong performance of the service sector is a promising sign that Nigeria is moving in the right direction.

With cautious optimism, experts are hopeful that Nigeria can leverage its expanding sectors to achieve sustained economic growth and create more opportunities for its growing population.

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WTO’s Okonjo-Iweala Points to Declining Nigerian GDP Growth as Major Concern

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Ngozi Okonjo Iweala

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), has raised concerns about the country’s declining GDP growth.

Speaking at the annual General Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) on Sunday, Okonjo-Iweala highlighted a troubling trend that has marked the Nigerian economy since 2014.

Addressing an audience of legal professionals, policymakers, and economists, Okonjo-Iweala painted a grim picture of Nigeria’s economic performance, noting that the nation’s GDP growth rate has significantly deteriorated over the past decade.

She observed that between 2000 and 2014, Nigeria enjoyed a relatively robust average GDP growth rate of 3.8%, which notably outpaced the population growth rate of 2.6% annually.

This period was characterized by substantial economic advancements and improvements in living standards for many Nigerians.

However, the post-2014 era has been marked by economic stagnation and decline. According to Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate has turned negative, recording a troubling average decline of 0.9%.

This reversal, she argues, reflects the government’s failure to sustain the positive economic momentum achieved by previous administrations.

“The contrast between the two decades is striking,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “While the early 2000s brought significant economic progress, the subsequent years have seen a marked decline in GDP growth, which has directly impacted the average Nigerian’s quality of life.”

The WTO Director General attributed this decline to a combination of factors, including inconsistent economic policies, lack of effective reform implementation, and broader macroeconomic challenges.

She said despite various reform attempts and temporary economic improvements, Nigeria has struggled to build on and consolidate these gains.

“The inability to sustain economic growth has had severe repercussions,” Okonjo-Iweala continued. “Many Nigerians are facing diminished job prospects and reduced well-being, as the benefits of earlier growth have not been maintained or built upon.”

In her address, Okonjo-Iweala urged for urgent and comprehensive economic reforms to address these challenges.

She called on Nigerian policymakers to focus on strategies that promote sustainable growth, enhance economic stability, and improve the overall quality of life for the populace.

The call for action comes at a time when Nigeria is grappling with various economic pressures, including inflation, currency depreciation, and unemployment.

Okonjo-Iweala’s remarks underscore the need for renewed efforts to stabilize the economy and implement policies that can drive long-term growth and development.

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