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Markets Today – Cautious Optimism, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

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Stocks - Investors King

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

Equity markets are marginally lower after strong sessions on Monday and Tuesday, a sign that investors are remaining cautious despite encouraging data on the new variant.

Volatility is going nowhere over the coming weeks but investors are clearly enthused by what the early data is telling us. That said, with the UK considering “plan B” restrictions, it would appear leaders are not as enthused by what they’re seeing, which frankly makes me wonder whether markets are getting ahead of themselves.

The knee-jerk reaction to the new variant was obviously overdone based on the information we now have but where the markets will end up is anyone’s guess. There’s still plenty more to learn. Of course, investors love to buy those dips so no one would be surprised if we were in the early stages of this year’s Santa rally.

There are so many different risk factors to contend with right now. Just as Covid appeared to take a back seat for much of the last few months, there’s now far less talk of inflation risks and interest rates. Markets are now pricing in little chance of a rate hike next week from the BoE and a faster taper from the Fed also looks less certain.

Is the market going to reward such caution from the central banks or will inflation fears take over again and push real yields lower. That would certainly be great for gold prices in the near term but could make for some nervous times next year. As has been said so often recently, central banks are stuck between a rock and a hard place and life isn’t getting any easier for them.

Oil recovers well but faces major resistance

Oil prices are easing slightly today after an impressive rally since the OPEC+ meeting last week. Brent appears to have run into some resistance around the lower end of $76.50-77.50 which could be a big obstacle to the upside. This was a big area of support in late September and again in late November and a move back above here could set the stage for a push back above $80.

That may be tough in the near term with so much still unknown about the Omicron variant and governments in discussions about appropriate restrictions to slow the rapid spread. But clearly, OPEC+ warnings have not fallen on deaf ears and should the variant not prove too bad, crude prices could remain well supported.

Gold edges off lows but remains vulnerable

Gold is slightly lower on the day as it continues to struggle to generate any upside momentum whatsoever. It recently held onto the mid-October and November lows but continues to face significant resistance to the upside. Omicron uncertainty didn’t help the yellow metal despite its safe-haven reputation, which begs the question, what will drag it higher?

Central banks are unlikely to flood the market with liquidity again if we see severe restrictions or lockdowns as it battles uncomfortably high and widespread inflation. But they may take a more patient approach in order to remain as accommodative as possible, which could still be viewed as an inflation risk and drive more hedge flows in the coming weeks. If not, we could see the ground below become very shaky.

Can bitcoin cling on

Bitcoin has clawed its way back above $50,000 and appeared to be clinging on after sinking back below earlier in the day. The risk rebound we’ve seen in the markets has aided the recovery but it still looks vulnerable after the weekend plunge and any sudden shift in risk appetite could trigger another dip. Should it hold above $50,000 then the next test remains around $53,500, with a move above leaving it on a much stronger footing and perhaps signaling the end of the correction.

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Energy

How Nigeria’s National Power Grid Collapsed Ten Times Within 9 Months 

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power project

The national power grid has again collapsed, leaving many Nigerians in total darkness.

Investors King can authoritatively report that this is the tenth time the power grid will be disrupted this year alone.

For this recent collapse, the grid, reportedly lost power generation around 1:39 pm on Tuesday.

Information revealed that power generation was 2,711 megawatts as of 1:00 pm, having previously peaked at 3,631 MW.

Earlier, power generation peaked at 3,934.77 MW around six o’clock in the morning.

However, between 2 pm and 3 pm, hourly generation dropped to 0.00 MW.

The Transmission Company of Nigeria confirmed that the national grid experienced a partial disturbance at about 1:52 pm on Tuesday, 5th November 2024.

TCN spokesperson Ndidi Mbah mentioned that the recent collapse was due to a series of line and generator trippings that caused instability in the grid and, consequently, the partial disturbance of the system.

Mbah pointed out that data from the National Control Centre revealed that a part of the grid was not affected by the bulk power disruption.

TCN however indicated that work work is in progress to restore power.

She explained that engineers are already working to quickly restore bulk power supply to the states affected by the “partial disturbance.”

Mbah noted that presently, bulk power supply has been restored to Abuja at 2:49 pm, maintaining that “we are gradually restoring it to other parts of the country.”

She apologized to Nigerians for whatever inconvenience the collapse might have caused.

Findings by Investors King revealed that the grid had collapsed at ten different times between March and November, this year.

Times the grid collapsed included February 4, March 28, April 15, July 16, two times in August 5, October 14, October 15, twice in October 19 and now today, November 5.

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Energy

Darkness Falls Again: TCN Explains Latest National Grid Collapse

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The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has provided an explanation for the latest National Grid collapse, which occurred on Tuesday, November 5.

Tuesday’s collapse, marking the 10th in 2024 alone, left Nigerians in total darkness.

Recall that the National Grid collapsed twice in October, sparking concerns among Nigerians.

Reacting to the latest collapse via a statement on Tuesday, the General Manager of TCN Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, disclosed that the collapse happened at 1:52 pm.

The GM revealed that the grid collapse was caused by line and generator trippings.

Mrs. Mbah said, “TCN states that the national grid experienced a partial disturbance at about 1:52 pm today, 5th November 2024.

“This followed a series of line and generator trippings that caused instability in the grid and, consequently, the partial disturbance of the system.

Data from the National Control Centre (NCC) revealed that a part of the grid was not affected by the bulk power disruption.

Mbah disclosed that operators are working to restore power in affected states, adding that power was restored in Abuja.

She explained, “TCN engineers are already working to quickly restore bulk power supply to the states affected by the partial disturbance. Presently, bulk power supply has been restored to Abuja at 2:49 pm, and we are gradually restoring power to other parts of the country.”

Apologizing to Nigerians, TCN said, “We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may cause our electricity customers.”

Investors King, in an earlier report, revealed that in an attempt to address the persistent collapse of the national grid, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) announced that discussions were underway with Independent Operators to take over the management of the grid.

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Energy

Nigeria Partners with ECOWAS and Morocco to Launch $26B African Gas Pipeline

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Gas-Pipeline

The Nigerian government, in partnership with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Morocco, and Mauritania, has announced plans to advance the $26 billion African Atlantic Gas Pipeline project to drive economic growth across Africa.

This development was revealed on Monday, November 5, by Mele Kyari, Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), at the ECOWAS Inter-Ministerial Meeting on the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline Project.

Speaking at the meeting, which was attended by ECOWAS Ministers of Hydrocarbons and Energy as well as representatives from Morocco and Mauritania, Kyari stated that, once completed, the project will connect 13 African countries.

Represented by Olalekan Ogunleye, NNPC’s Executive Vice President for Gas Power & New Energy, Kyari said this will be Africa’s largest pipeline project.

Ogunleye confirmed that progress has been made with the front-end engineering design completed, the phase two study finalized, and work ongoing for environmental and social impact assessments as well as land acquisition and resettlement.

He emphasized NNPC’s readiness to execute the project: “Today, we come together to make significant progress in the African Atlantic gas pipeline project, which is a transformative initiative connecting at least 13 African nations in shared prosperity and development. These achievements underscore our capability to deliver this landmark project, supported by strong regional collaboration.”

Ekperikpe Ekpo, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), described the project as a game-changer for the regional economy, stating, “We stand at a critical juncture where these agreements can reshape our energy landscape, strengthen our economies, and uplift our people.”

He also highlighted that the project will increase Africa’s presence in the global gas market, noting that “the agreements demonstrate a strong commitment to advancing hydrocarbon and energy trade across ECOWAS, enhancing access to natural gas in West Africa, and expanding Africa’s global footprint in the gas market.”

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