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A Muted Bank Holiday Session

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Holiday season financial market

By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA

It’s been an unsurprisingly muted day in the markets as the US celebrates Thanksgiving and the rest of us are left to watch most asset classes tread water for most of the session.

European stocks are on course to close marginally higher which is encouraging in itself given the fear around inflation, interest rates and Covid at the moment. The latter caused a jolt in the markets last Friday but investors have gathered their composure once more. The risk of lockdowns and restrictions hasn’t passed so continues to weigh.

The US posted some more strong economic data on Wednesday as it dumped a few days’ worth of releases on us in the space of an hour and a half which was nice and easy to digest. Ultimately, the takeaway from the data was that the economy is looking strong, the labour market is in great shape and the consumer is ready to spend going into the important holiday season.

A number of Fed policymakers will be comforted by the numbers we’ve seen recently on the back of a really strong third-quarter earnings season. At times over the last few month’s, it must have felt like the walls were closing in. Inflation was running hotter, lasting longer and yet the economy wasn’t necessarily ready for rate hikes. They may now feel much more relaxed and we could now see the consensus grow for faster tapering and earlier tightening than the bulk have allowed themselves to consider previously.

Even the lira has been relatively muted by recent standards. That may be something to do with the US bank holiday, although it’s probably just finding its feet now that the dust has settled following Erdogan’s defiant speech that pulled the rug from under the remaining lira bulls. I’m sure there’s plenty of lira volatility to come in the days and weeks ahead but for now, it appears to be enjoying some reprieve.

Oil steady as traders eye OPEC+ meeting

Oil prices are also steady today, a common theme as we make our way through the various asset classes. Brent and WTI bounced back strongly following the US-led SPR release this week, a move that was heavily priced in and failed to get pulses racing.

Some are speculating about a possible retaliatory move from OPEC+ when it meets next week but such a move would seem rather unnecessary when prices remain very high. The group doesn’t want to align itself with the greedy manipulator tag some have tried to apply to them. They don’t need to involve themselves in the politics of it all and I’m sure consuming countries will be hoping they opt not to. If this does turn into a price war, there will only be losers, albeit to a lesser extent on the producer side.

Gold fragile after consolidating below $1,800

Gold has settled below $1,800 in recent days, after being pummelled by more hawkish interest rate expectations ahead of the December meeting. Faster tapering and multiple rate hikes next year have ruined gold’s appeal. Yes, we still have high inflation but now it seems the central bank intends to do something about it. It was good while it lasted for the yellow metal.

Gold has found some support around $1,780 but it’s looking fragile and the pressure could mount once more when the US returns next week, if not sooner. This is around the 50% retracement level of the August lows to the November highs which may be why we’re seeing some support at the moment. But I don’t think this is a retracement which is why it will eventually break, and the 61.8 fib below around $1,750 may be a more fitting temporary bottom if it does consolidate ahead of the December FOMC meeting.

A bitcoin Santa rally?

Bitcoin is enjoying some reprieve during the US bank holiday. Of course, the tale we hear every year is that of families sitting around the table and buying bitcoin on their phones following the thrilling annual crypto chat over Turkey. It certainly makes for a nice story but I’m sure it probably has more to do with the 20% decline we saw after hitting record highs a couple of weeks ago and consolidation we’ve seen the last couple of days. If the price breaks $60,000 again, perhaps this year’s Santa rally will be led by bitcoin.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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Crude Oil

NNPC and Newcross Set to Boost Awoba Unit Field Production to 12,000 bpd

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NNPC - Investors King

NNPC and Newcross Exploration and Production Ltd are working together to increase production at the Awoba Unit Field to 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) within the next 30 days.

This initiative, aimed at optimizing hydrocarbon asset production, follows the recent restart of operations at the Awoba field, which commenced this month after a hiatus.

The field, located in the mangrove swamp south of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, ceased production in 2021 due to logistical challenges and crude oil theft.

The joint venture between NNPC and Newcross is poised to bolster national revenue and meet OPEC production quotas, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s energy sector.

Mele Kyari, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, attributes this achievement to a conducive operating environment fostered by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The endeavor underscores a collective effort involving stakeholders from various sectors, including staff, operators, host communities, and security agencies, aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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Gold

Gold Prices Slide Below $2,300 as Investors Digest Fed’s Rate Outlook

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gold bars - Investors King

Amidst a backdrop of global economic shifts and geopolitical recalibration, gold prices dipped below the $2,300 price level.

The decline comes as investors carefully analyse signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its future interest rate policies.

After reaching record highs earlier this month, gold suffered its most daily decline in nearly two years, shedding 2.7% on Monday.

The recent retreat reflects a multifaceted landscape where concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East have eased, coupled with indications that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst and international economist at ITC Markets, noted that tactical short-selling likely contributed to the decline, especially given the rapid surge in gold prices witnessed recently.

Despite this setback, bullion remains up approximately 15% since mid-February, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchases, and robust demand from Chinese consumers.

The shift in focus among investors now turns toward forthcoming US economic data, including key inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve.

These data points are anticipated to provide further insights into the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory.

Over recent weeks, policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to consistently strong inflation reports, leading market participants to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of future interest rate adjustments.

As markets recalibrate their expectations for monetary policy, the prospect of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment poses challenges for gold, which traditionally does not offer interest-bearing returns.

Spot gold prices dropped by 1.2% to $2,298.67 an ounce, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining relatively stable. Silver, palladium, and platinum also experienced declines following gold’s retreat.

The ongoing interplay between economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies continues to shape the trajectory of precious metal markets.

While gold faces near-term headwinds, its status as a safe-haven asset and store of value ensures that it remains a focal point for investors navigating uncertain global dynamics.

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