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FAAC Increases by 6.2 Percent in October to N737.97 Billion

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FAAC

The gross monthly distribution by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) to the three tiers of government and public agencies amounted to N739.97bn (USD1.8bn) in October (from September revenue). This shows an increase of 6.2% or N43.1bn from the previous payout.

Based on data in the local media, we learnt that petroleum profit tax (PPT), oil and gas royalties and excise duty recorded increases while companies’ income tax (CIT), value added tax (VAT) and import duty recorded decreases over the previous month. State governments received a total of N220.3bn, including N53.8bn representing the 13% derivation for the few oil producing states.

The headline figure is made up of N577.8bn in gross statutory distribution, N159.1bn from the VAT Pool, and N3.1bn of exchange gain. From the distribution, N126.3bn was consumed by a combination of costs, transfers and unspecified refunds.

The committee put the balance in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) at USD60.9m. According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Commission (NNPC), it has in recent months made deductions from its contributions to the federation. The corporation deducted N149.3bn in October, N215.3bn in September, N170.4bn in August, N114.3bn in July, and about N126bn in June from its FAAC remittance. However, zero contributions were made in April.

Based on news from local media, we note that the first FAAC meeting in October was inconclusive as states and local governments resisted the commencement of deductions in relation to the USD418m judgement debt for consultancy services with regard to the Paris Club Loans refund.

We understand that the consultants that assisted with recovering the refund claimed a percentage of the refund as payment for services rendered to the states and local government councils.

Turning to the latest data on internally generated revenue (IGR) from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), we note that the total IGR for H1 ’21 stood at N849.1bn compared with N612.9bn recorded in the corresponding period in 2020. Lagos recorded the highest IGR amounting to N267.2bn followed by FCT (N69.1bn), Rivers (N57.3bn), and Ogun state (N54.8bn). While Yobe (N4.0bn), Taraba (N4.8bn), and Gombe state (N5.4bn) recorded the least IGR.

Pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) recorded the highest contribution to the total IGR amounting to N488.1bn while road taxes contributed the least (N16.8bn). The data also revealed that based on zones, South-West zone recorded the highest
revenue amounting to N385.4bn followed by South-South zone (N156.2bn), while NorthEast zone recorded the least (N42.9bn).

According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), the total debt stock for states and FCT as at 30 Jun ’21 stood at N5.99trn (USD14.5bn). A further breakdown showed that the domestic debt stock for states and FCT totalled N4.1trn (USD9.9bn). Lagos (N533.8bn), Akwa Ibom (N242.3bn), and Rivers (N213.2bn) recorded the highest domestic debt stock, while Jigawa (N32.6bn), Ebonyi (N43.4bn), and FCT (N52.7bn) recorded the least.

The external debt stock for states and FCT totalled N1.9trn (USD4.6bn) in the same period. Excluding the need to avoid overdependency on FAAC distributions, boosting IGR will avail state governments the opportunity to pursue profitable capital programmes. Furthermore, the deployment of public-private partnerships in various sectors such as agriculture, health, education, among others, could maximise revenue-generating opportunities state governments.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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