Dangote’s $500m Refinery in Ethiopia at Risk of Attack by Rebels

A $500m cement refinery belonging to Dangote in Ethiopia is at risk of being a casualty in the ongoing war between Tigray rebels and allies vs the Ethiopian government and allies.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now sits at the head of a civil war that has lasted for months in Ethiopia, a year after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. This civil war has even been referred to by some as bearing the marks of genocide. The country had been struggling with huge political, economic and ethnic challenges before a feud between Abiy and the former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) escalated matters.

Before Abiy came into power, the TPLF ruled Ethiopia strongly. The party oversaw a period of economic growth and stability, but at the cost of basic civil rights. This authoritarian rule sparked an uproar that eventually saw Abiy’s predecessor resign. Abiy was brought in by the ruling class in 2018 to bring change without changing the political order. However, Abiy rearranged the ruling coalition which the TPLF had established, ostracizing the TPLF. Abiy’s drive for a pan-Ethiopian political party sparked fears that the country’s Federal system was under threat. Tigray leaders withdrew to the North of the country, where they operated their own regional government.

In September 2020, tensions rose as the Tigrayans went against Abiy to hold regional parliamentary elections which he delayed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Abiy regarded the elections as illegal and cut off any funding to the TPLF leadership, causing situations to escalate between regional and federal governments.

In November, Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a federal army base and stealing weapons before ordering a military assault, sending troops from Eritrea and the neighbouring region of Amhara. Since then, both parties have been at each other’s necks, with pure acts of violence being committed at will. A year on, this war has led to the deaths of thousands, the displacement of over 2 million, fueled famine and allowed other atrocities.

The Dangote refinery is the largest in Ethiopia, and is located in the Orioma regional state, less than 90km from Addis Ababa. The refinery was commissioned in 2015, and has a production capacity of 5,000 tons per day as well as 2.5m metric tons per annum.

A report by MoneyCentral states that the rebels have captured cities around the capital, and have now begun to advance towards the capital. As the rebel groups advance of the capital, it is increasingly likely that any establishment that is ‘helpful’ to the federal government – or even the country’s economy – will be attacked to make a statement that they are truly against the government.