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Dangote’s $500m Refinery in Ethiopia at Risk of Attack by Rebels

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A $500m cement refinery belonging to Dangote in Ethiopia is at risk of being a casualty in the ongoing war between Tigray rebels and allies vs the Ethiopian government and allies.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now sits at the head of a civil war that has lasted for months in Ethiopia, a year after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. This civil war has even been referred to by some as bearing the marks of genocide. The country had been struggling with huge political, economic and ethnic challenges before a feud between Abiy and the former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) escalated matters.

Before Abiy came into power, the TPLF ruled Ethiopia strongly. The party oversaw a period of economic growth and stability, but at the cost of basic civil rights. This authoritarian rule sparked an uproar that eventually saw Abiy’s predecessor resign. Abiy was brought in by the ruling class in 2018 to bring change without changing the political order. However, Abiy rearranged the ruling coalition which the TPLF had established, ostracizing the TPLF. Abiy’s drive for a pan-Ethiopian political party sparked fears that the country’s Federal system was under threat. Tigray leaders withdrew to the North of the country, where they operated their own regional government.

In September 2020, tensions rose as the Tigrayans went against Abiy to hold regional parliamentary elections which he delayed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Abiy regarded the elections as illegal and cut off any funding to the TPLF leadership, causing situations to escalate between regional and federal governments.

In November, Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a federal army base and stealing weapons before ordering a military assault, sending troops from Eritrea and the neighbouring region of Amhara. Since then, both parties have been at each other’s necks, with pure acts of violence being committed at will. A year on, this war has led to the deaths of thousands, the displacement of over 2 million, fueled famine and allowed other atrocities.

The Dangote refinery is the largest in Ethiopia, and is located in the Orioma regional state, less than 90km from Addis Ababa. The refinery was commissioned in 2015, and has a production capacity of 5,000 tons per day as well as 2.5m metric tons per annum.

A report by MoneyCentral states that the rebels have captured cities around the capital, and have now begun to advance towards the capital. As the rebel groups advance of the capital, it is increasingly likely that any establishment that is ‘helpful’ to the federal government – or even the country’s economy – will be attacked to make a statement that they are truly against the government.

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NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL Begin Oil Production at OML 13, Akwa Ibom State

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NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NNPC E&P Ltd) and Natural Oilfield Services Limited (NOSL) have commenced oil production at Oil Mining Lease 13 (OML 13) located in Akwa Ibom State.

The announcement came through a statement signed by Olufemi Soneye, the spokesperson of NNPC E&P Ltd, highlighting the collaborative effort between the flagship upstream subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and NOSL, a subsidiary of Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company Limited.

The production, which officially began on May 6, 2024, saw an initial output of 6,000 barrels of oil. The partners aim to ramp up production to 40,000 barrels per day by May 27, 2024, reflecting their commitment to enhancing Nigeria’s crude oil production capacity.

Soneye said the first oil flow from OML 13 shows the dedication of NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL to drive growth and development in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He stated, “The achievement does not only signify the culmination of rigorous planning and execution by the teams involved but also represents a new era of economic empowerment and development opportunities for the host communities.”

For Nigeria, the commencement of oil production at OML 13 holds immense significance. It contributes to the country’s efforts to increase its oil production capacity, essential for meeting domestic energy needs and driving economic growth.

Moreover, Soneye reiterated NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL’s commitment to operating in a safe, environmentally responsible, and community-beneficial manner.

This partnership underscores their dedication to sustainable practices and fostering positive impacts in the local communities where they operate.

The commencement of oil production at OML 13 marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, signifying not only increased production capacity but also the collaborative efforts between industry players to drive growth and development in the nation’s vital energy sector.

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Manufacturers Grapple with Losses Amid Economic Strain

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In the first three months of 2024, some of Nigeria’s major manufacturers found themselves navigating treacherous waters as financial losses mounted amidst economic turbulence.

According to data compiled by BusinessDay, rising interest rates and a further devaluation of the naira contributed to the woes of these industrial giants.

The latest financial reports from 13 listed consumer goods firms paint a grim picture, with seven of them collectively recording a staggering loss of N388.6 billion in Q1.

Names such as International Breweries Plc, Cadbury Nigeria Plc, and Nigerian Breweries Plc were among those that bore the brunt of the downturn.

On the flip side, a few companies managed to buck the trend. BUA Foods Plc, Unilever Nigeria Plc, and Dangote Cement Plc reported a combined profit of N171.9 billion, showcasing resilience amidst the challenging economic landscape.

While the overall revenue of these manufacturers saw an impressive 79 percent increase to N2.27 trillion, it was overshadowed by soaring financing costs.

In Q1 alone, finance costs skyrocketed to N616.5 billion from N65.8 billion in the same period in 2023.

Analysts attribute these mounting losses to the confluence of factors, including the devaluation of the naira and escalating interest rates. With the naira experiencing nearly a 30 percent devaluation this year alone, coupled with a 40 percent devaluation last June, companies faced intensified pressure on their margins.

Moreover, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to raise the monetary policy rate to 24.75 percent in March further exacerbated the situation.

This marked the second consecutive increase, following a 400 basis points hike in February, aimed at curbing inflation.

The adverse effects of these economic headwinds were felt across various sectors. Nestle reported the highest finance cost of N218.8 billion, followed closely by Dangote Cement and Dangote Sugar Refinery.

Commenting on the challenging business environment, Uaboi Agbebaku, the company secretary at Nigerian Breweries, highlighted how increased interest rates and FX volatility led to a staggering 391 percent rise in net losses compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Looking ahead, manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic but vigilant. Thabo Mabe, managing director at NASCON, emphasized the importance of navigating the turbulent waters while executing robust strategies to ensure sustained growth.

As Nigeria grapples with economic uncertainties, the resilience of its manufacturing sector will play a pivotal role in shaping the nation’s economic trajectory.

However, concerted efforts from both the public and private sectors will be needed to steer the industry towards stability and growth.

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Shell Nigeria’s $1.09 Billion Tax and Royalty Payments Power Economic Growth

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Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) and Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) paid a sum of $1.09 billion in corporate taxes and royalties to the Nigerian government in 2023.

This figure, revealed in the recently published 2023 Shell Briefing Notes, shows Shell’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s development through substantial financial contributions.

According to the briefing notes, SPDC disbursed $442 million in taxes and royalties, while SNEPCo remitted $649 million.

Despite a decrease from the $1.36 billion paid in 2022, these payments highlight Shell’s continued role as a key contributor to Nigeria’s revenue generation efforts.

Osagie Okunbor, Managing Director and Country Chair of Shell Companies in Nigeria said “Shell companies in Nigeria will continue to contribute to the country’s economic growth through the revenue we generate and the employment opportunities we create by supporting the development of local businesses.”

The briefing notes also provided insights into Shell’s ongoing operations and initiatives in Nigeria. The company’s investments span more than six decades, with a focus on powering progress and promoting socio-economic development.

Through collaborations with stakeholders and communities, Shell aims to provide cost-effective and cleaner energy solutions while fostering sustainable growth.

“It is important to emphasize that Shell is not leaving Nigeria and will remain a major partner of the country’s energy sector through its deep-water and integrated gas businesses,” Okunbor reiterated, underscoring Shell’s long-term commitment to Nigeria’s energy landscape.

Shell’s contributions extend beyond financial payments, encompassing initiatives aimed at enhancing local capacity building, fostering job creation, and promoting social development. By prioritizing safe operations and environmental stewardship, Shell seeks to align its business objectives with Nigeria’s sustainable development goals.

As Nigeria navigates economic challenges and seeks avenues for growth, Shell’s substantial tax and royalty payments serve as a testament to the company’s enduring partnership with the Nigerian government and its commitment to driving economic progress.

Through continued collaboration and investment, Shell endeavors to play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s journey towards prosperity and sustainability.

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