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Broadband Penetration in Need of a Leg-up – Coronation Merchant Bank

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Broadband Penetration - Investors King

Digital technologies can promote growth in an economy partly due to their capacity to reduce costs and improve the quality of delivery. However, to achieve this, highspeed and reliable internet and broadband are required. The latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the industry regulator, show that internet subscriptions stood at 139.4 million in July, representing a y/y decline of -5%. Furthermore, we noticed a m/m decline of c.431,000 in subscriptions.

The decline in subscriptions can be partly attributed to the temporary suspension of SIM card sales to ensure the achievement of the National Identification Number (NIN) registration exercise. Additionally, based on our channel checks, the stress associated with the NIN-SIM linkage has resulted in customers abandoning SIMs of devices that are not their primary source for communication or internet connectivity.

MTN Nigeria (MTNN) accounted for the largest share (42%) of total subscriptions though down -1.0% m/m in July ‘21. Airtel (-0.5%) and Glo (-0.9%) also recorded m/m decreases.

Over the past year, there has been a visible shift to fibre broadband internet plans which do not necessarily need SIM cards to function. We note that some residential estates are increasingly using this service given the heavy reliance on internet services at home due to the newly adopted work-from-home approach.

In November ‘19, President Buhari launched the National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy. The strategy is hinged on eight critical pillars. One of the critical pillars is developing a solid infrastructure by deploying fixed and mobile broadband infrastructure to deepen broadband penetration and drive an inclusive and vibrant digital economy.

Similarly, in September ‘21, the FGN approved the national policy for the fifth-generation (5G) network to boost the country’s digital economy. The national broadband plan set a target for the country to attain 70% broadband penetration at a price of N390 per 1GB of data (i.e. 1.3% of minimum wage).

The latest national accounts show that Information and Communications Technology sector grew by 5.6% y/y and contributed 17.9% to the total GDP in Q2 ’21. This is slightly higher than its contributions in Q2 ’20 (17.8%) and Q1 ’21 (14.9%). It also showed that telecommunications grew by 5.9% y/y in Q2 ‘21 compared with 7.7% in Q1 ‘21 and 18.1% in Q2 ‘20.

We note that investments into the sector have declined steadily. Capital importation into the telecommunications sector declined by 138.2% from USD944.1m in ’14 to USD417.5m in ’20. This can be linked to the infrastructure deficit in the telecommunications sector, the high cost of services and access devices, low digital literacy, poor perception of broadband value, among others.

Clear policy and regulatory guidance are fundamental to the optimal distribution and uptake of broadband services. The evolving work conditions, travel restrictions due to covid-19, the rise of e-commerce, and integration of technology in daily activities show that the rollout of broadband services has the potential to address various socio-economic challenges, grow the economy and create jobs.

Industry sources suggest that a 10% increase in broadband penetration can increase the GDP of an economy by 1.8 – 2.0%

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Telecommunications

Telecom Tax, Other Levies Back on the Table for $750m Loan

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In a bid to secure a $750 million loan from the World Bank, Nigeria is considering the reintroduction of previously suspended telecom taxes and other fiscal measures.

This potential move comes as part of the Stakeholder Engagement Plan for Nigeria – Accelerating Resource Mobilisation Reforms program between the country and the World Bank.

The program, aimed at strengthening the government’s financial position by enhancing its capacity to manage and mobilize domestic resources effectively, outlines plans to improve tax and customs compliance and safeguard oil revenues.

Among the proposed measures are the reintroduction of excises on telecom services and the EMT levy on electronic money transfers through the Nigerian Banking System.

President Bola Tinubu had previously ordered the suspension of the five percent excise duty on telecommunications and the Import Tax Adjustment levy on certain vehicles in July 2023.

However, negotiations between the government and the World Bank suggest that this suspension may be lifted to meet the targets of the new loan program.

The World Bank’s contribution of $750 million constitutes a significant portion of the program’s budget, with the government expected to contribute $1.17 billion through annual budgetary allocations.

The proposed tax reforms under the ARMOR program are expected to have far-reaching implications across various economic sectors.

Stakeholders that would be affected by these measures include telecom and banking service providers, manufacturers of goods such as alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and sugar-sweetened beverages, as well as the general tax-paying public, importers, and international traders.

Key industry groups, such as the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria, are being engaged regarding the excise duties on telecom services.

The planned reintroduction of these taxes is part of a larger governmental initiative aimed at reforming tax and excise regimes, enhancing the administrative capabilities of tax and customs, and ensuring transparency in oil and gas revenue management from 2024 to 2028.

The program also emphasizes the importance of engaging vulnerable groups to mitigate any disproportionate impact of these changes.

Additionally, the program outlines specific allocations for technical assistance, including investments in better data sharing systems, risk-based audits, compliance processes, and capacity building for institutions such as the Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigeria Customs Service.

While the reintroduction of telecom taxes and other levies may face resistance from some stakeholders, the government sees them as essential steps toward achieving its fiscal targets and unlocking much-needed financing for development projects.

As negotiations with the World Bank continue, Nigeria must balance its revenue needs with the potential impact on businesses and consumers.

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Telecommunications

Nigeria’s Mobile Subscriptions Drop by 5.4 Million in Q1 2024, NIN Enforcement Blamed

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Active mobile subscriptions dropped by 5.4 million in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

The total active mobile subscriptions stood at 219 million, a 2.4% decrease from the previous quarter’s 224.4 million.

This decline has been directly attributed to the stringent enforcement of the National Identity Number (NIN)-Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) linkage policy by the NCC.

Since its inception, the policy has aimed to bolster national security measures and enhance accountability within the telecom sector by mandating the linkage of mobile phone numbers to individuals’ unique NINs.

The regulatory directive, which came into effect in December 2023, required telecom operators to deactivate SIMs not linked to their owners’ NINs by February 28, 2024. The process unfolded in three phases with subsequent deadlines set for March 29 and April 15.

However, due to various challenges and requests for extensions, the final phase was postponed to July 31.

During this period, over 40 million lines, encompassing both active and multiple lines registered to a single subscriber, were reportedly barred by telecom operators.

The majority of these lines were found to be inactive, suggesting a considerable impact on non-compliant subscribers.

The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) disclosed that as of April 2024, a total of 105 million Nigerians had enrolled for the NIN, indicating a widespread response to the government’s initiative to bolster identity verification processes.

In April 2022, the telecom sector experienced a similar wave of disruption as operators commenced the initial phase of enforcing the SIM-NIN rule.

During that period, over 72.77 million active telecom lines were barred, signaling a pivotal moment in regulatory compliance efforts.

MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telecom operator, revealed in its first-quarter 2024 financial report that it had deactivated 8.6 million lines due to non-compliance with the NIN mandate.

However, the company emphasized its efforts to minimize the net impact of barred subscribers through effective customer management strategies.

Karl Toriola, CEO of MTN Nigeria, underscored the resilience of the company’s customer value initiatives in mitigating subscriber churn and driving gross connections amid regulatory challenges.

Despite the substantial drop in active subscriptions, MTN Nigeria closed the quarter with a total of 77.7 million subscribers, showcasing the effectiveness of its retention strategies.

As Nigeria navigates the evolving telecom landscape amidst regulatory reforms, stakeholders anticipate further measures to enhance compliance and fortify the integrity of the country’s telecommunications ecosystem.

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Telecommunications

MTN Nigeria to Convene Extraordinary General Meeting to Address Capital Loss

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Karl O Toriola - Investorsking.com

MTN Nigeria, one of the country’s leading telecommunications giants, has announced plans to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) with its shareholders to deliberate on strategies for managing the significant capital loss it incurred in 2023.

The decision was disclosed in a corporate notice filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited on Tuesday and the EGM is scheduled to take place later this month in Lagos.

The primary agenda of the meeting will be to discuss and explore possible measures to mitigate the loss of capital suffered by the company during the financial year ended December 2023.

The telecom giant posted a net loss after tax of N137 billion, largely driven by a N740 billion foreign exchange loss.

Consequently, MTN Nigeria’s retained earnings and shareholders’ fund plummeted to negative N208 billion and N40.8 billion, respectively.

In a statement, Karl Toriola, the Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, acknowledged the daunting operating environment characterized by inflationary pressures, currency devaluation, and foreign exchange shortages.

Toriola explained that the adverse impact of these factors on the company’s financial performance necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of strategies to navigate the complexities ahead.

Toriola further expressed the company’s commitment to sustaining commercial momentum and accelerating service revenue growth, despite the challenging economic landscape.

The decision not to declare a final dividend for 2023 reflects MTN Nigeria’s prudent approach to prioritizing financial stability and long-term resilience amid ongoing uncertainties.

The upcoming EGM signifies a pivotal moment for the company and its shareholders to collaboratively chart a course towards recovery and sustainable growth.

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