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FG Revenue Drops 44.6 Percent From Projection Between Jan to May 2021

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Revenue - Investors King

The federal government actualised revenue is substantially behind targeted performance as it recorded a 44.6 percent shortfall from the projected N3.3 trillion for the period between January to May 2021.

Total expenditure plan for the year had jumped to 14.8 trillion, from the initial N13.8 trillion following the supplementary budget of N982.7 billion. But not only was the revenue projection retained, the actual performance has been in limbo, indicating a widening deficit.

The January to May 2021 budget implementation report by the ministry of Finance reveals that actual revenue was N1.8 trillion on the pro-rata basis, as against the 3.3trillion projection.

Drawing a parrel with the 2020 experience, analysts at the Afrinvest West Africa, a Lagose based investment banking institution, said though the FG had effected a downward review of its revenue projections along with a similar review in expenditure, the actual revenue performance still fell significantly below target.

In its Domestic Macroeconomics Highlights released last week, the analysts stated: “At first, the shock occasioned by the emergence of the pandemic compelled a downward revision of the 2020 expenditure plan to 9.9tn from 10.5tn earlier assented to by the president. In like manner, revenue projections were also lowered to 5.4trillion from 8.4trillion to reflect the reality of both the Oil and Non-oil segments of the economy.

“In the end, the budget implementation report by the Ministry of Finance, Budget & National Planning revealed that the FG realized 73.4% (or 3.9trillion) of the revised revenue projection of 5.4trillion. Aggregate revenue was dragged down by underwhelming non-Oil revenue which fell 21.5% to 1.3trillion, below the revised projection of 1.6trillion.”

Meanwhile, the company stated that its projections that the country’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) would clutch out of the COVID-19-induced recession of 2020 were on track as the country recorded a growth rate of 5.0 percent in the first half of the year (H1’21).

According to analysts at Afrinvest Financial Services company,

“At the beginning of the year, we projected in our outlook report “A Blurry Path to Recovery” that the Nigerian economy in 2021 would clutch out of the COVID-19-induced recession of 2020, albeit at a modest 2.5 percent growth rate.

“Our position was hinged on the expectation of improved non-oil sector activities, to be driven jointly by the full impact of the monetary and fiscal stimuli rolled out in 2020 and the reduction in external shocks.

“We highlighted that the reopening of sub-sectors and land borders should support the recovery of key non-oil activities – the Manufacturing, Services, and Trade sectors.

“We predicted that the Agriculture sector would benefit from the recovery of supply chain activities and the incentive of a reduction in the import duty on farm tractors (from 35.0% to 5.0%) and trucks (from 35.0% to 10.0%) as stipulated in the Finance Act 2020.

“ In all of these projections, we maintained a cautious position on the recovery dynamics, as we emphasized that potential downside risk factors such as a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, a further devaluation of the Naira, weak external position, and the continuous cap on oil supply are capable of negating the potential impact of the recovery catalysts earlier highlighted,” they said.

They noted that based on the realities that played out in H1’21, their projections were largely on track, except for oil prices which rebounded stronger than anticipated due to the sharp recovery of economic activities in AEs and some EMDEs led by China.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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