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FG Revenue Drops 44.6 Percent From Projection Between Jan to May 2021

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Revenue - Investors King

The federal government actualised revenue is substantially behind targeted performance as it recorded a 44.6 percent shortfall from the projected N3.3 trillion for the period between January to May 2021.

Total expenditure plan for the year had jumped to 14.8 trillion, from the initial N13.8 trillion following the supplementary budget of N982.7 billion. But not only was the revenue projection retained, the actual performance has been in limbo, indicating a widening deficit.

The January to May 2021 budget implementation report by the ministry of Finance reveals that actual revenue was N1.8 trillion on the pro-rata basis, as against the 3.3trillion projection.

Drawing a parrel with the 2020 experience, analysts at the Afrinvest West Africa, a Lagose based investment banking institution, said though the FG had effected a downward review of its revenue projections along with a similar review in expenditure, the actual revenue performance still fell significantly below target.

In its Domestic Macroeconomics Highlights released last week, the analysts stated: “At first, the shock occasioned by the emergence of the pandemic compelled a downward revision of the 2020 expenditure plan to 9.9tn from 10.5tn earlier assented to by the president. In like manner, revenue projections were also lowered to 5.4trillion from 8.4trillion to reflect the reality of both the Oil and Non-oil segments of the economy.

“In the end, the budget implementation report by the Ministry of Finance, Budget & National Planning revealed that the FG realized 73.4% (or 3.9trillion) of the revised revenue projection of 5.4trillion. Aggregate revenue was dragged down by underwhelming non-Oil revenue which fell 21.5% to 1.3trillion, below the revised projection of 1.6trillion.”

Meanwhile, the company stated that its projections that the country’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) would clutch out of the COVID-19-induced recession of 2020 were on track as the country recorded a growth rate of 5.0 percent in the first half of the year (H1’21).

According to analysts at Afrinvest Financial Services company,

“At the beginning of the year, we projected in our outlook report “A Blurry Path to Recovery” that the Nigerian economy in 2021 would clutch out of the COVID-19-induced recession of 2020, albeit at a modest 2.5 percent growth rate.

“Our position was hinged on the expectation of improved non-oil sector activities, to be driven jointly by the full impact of the monetary and fiscal stimuli rolled out in 2020 and the reduction in external shocks.

“We highlighted that the reopening of sub-sectors and land borders should support the recovery of key non-oil activities – the Manufacturing, Services, and Trade sectors.

“We predicted that the Agriculture sector would benefit from the recovery of supply chain activities and the incentive of a reduction in the import duty on farm tractors (from 35.0% to 5.0%) and trucks (from 35.0% to 10.0%) as stipulated in the Finance Act 2020.

“ In all of these projections, we maintained a cautious position on the recovery dynamics, as we emphasized that potential downside risk factors such as a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, a further devaluation of the Naira, weak external position, and the continuous cap on oil supply are capable of negating the potential impact of the recovery catalysts earlier highlighted,” they said.

They noted that based on the realities that played out in H1’21, their projections were largely on track, except for oil prices which rebounded stronger than anticipated due to the sharp recovery of economic activities in AEs and some EMDEs led by China.

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Economy

British Petrol Stations Run Dry as Truck Driver Shortage Disrupts Supply Chain

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Petrol - Investors King

Gas station pumps ran dry in major British cities on Monday and vendors rationed sales as a shortage of truckers strained supply chains to breaking point in the world’s fifth-largest economy.

A dire post-Brexit shortage of lorry drivers revealed as the COVID-19 pandemic eases has sown chaos through British supply chains in everything from food to fuel, raising the spectre of disruptions and price rises in the run up to Christmas.

Drivers queued for hours to fill their cars at gas stations that were still serving fuel, albeit often rationed, and there were calls for National Health Service (NHS) workers to be given priority, to keep hospitals open as the pandemic continues.

“As pumps run dry there is a real risk that NHS staff won’t be able to do their jobs, and provide vital services and care to people who urgently need it,” said Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the British Medical Association’s council chair.

Pumps across British cities were either closed or had signs saying fuel was unavailable on Monday, Reuters reporters said, with some limiting the amount of fuel each customer could buy.

The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent fuel retailers which now account for 65% of all UK forecourts, said members had reported that 50% to 90% of pumps were dry in some areas.

“We need some calm,” Gordon Balmer, executive director of the PRA, who worked for BP (BP.L) for 30 years, told Reuters. “Please don’t panic buy: if people drain the network then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) said it had seen higher than usual demand for fuel across its British network and that some sites were running low on some grades of fuel.

Environment Secretary George Eustice said there was no shortage of fuel, urged people to stop panic buying and said there were no plans to get the army to drive trucks, though the Ministry of Defence would help with trucker testing.

Hauliers, gas stations and retailers warned that there were no quick fixes, however, as the shortfall of truck drivers – estimated to be around 100,000 – was so acute, and because transporting fuel demands additional training and licensing.

BREXIT CRUNCH?

For months, supermarkets, processors and farmers have warned that a shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers was straining supply chains to breaking point – making it harder to get goods onto shelves.

Amid warnings of a dire winter ahead, some politicians in the European Union linked the supply chain stress to the 2016 Brexit referendum and Britain’s subsequent decision to seek a distant relationship with the bloc.

“The free movement of labour is part of the European Union, and we tried very hard to convince the British not to leave the Union,” said Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrat candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor.

“They decided differently. I hope they will manage the problems coming from that,” Scholz said.

British ministers have insisted that Brexit is nothing to do with the current trucker shortage, though around 25,000 truckers returned to Europe before Brexit. Britain was also unable to test 40,000 drivers during COVID-19 lockdowns.

The government on Sunday announced a plan to issue temporary visas for 5,000 foreign truck drivers.

Edwin Atema, the head of research and enforcement at the Netherlands-based FNV union, told the BBC that EU drivers were unlikely to flock to Britain given the conditions on offer.

“The EU workers we speak to will not go to the UK for a short-term visa to help UK out of the shit they created themselves,” Atema said.

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Africa Needs $2 Trillion for Green Manufacturing, McKinsey Says

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robo - Investors King

Africa’s lack of industrial development puts it in a strong position to develop low-carbon manufacturing without the costs of transitioning from fossil fuel-based factories, McKinsey & Co. said.

In the process of striving toward net-zero emissions by 2050, the continent could create a net 3.8 million jobs, McKinsey said in its Africa’s Green Manufacturing Crossroads report, which was partially funded by the U.K. government and released Monday. However, to hit that level would require investment of $2 trillion in manufacturing and power.

“Africa has an opportunity to leapfrog high emitting manufacturing technologies and build a low-carbon manufacturing sector from the ground up,” Kartik Jayaram, a senior partner in McKinsey’s Nairobi office, said in a statement accompanying the report. “Africa could avoid future costs by sidestepping the expensive transition from fossil fuels to renewables.”

Still, without any commitments to decarbonize emissions from manufacturing, Africa could almost double to 830 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, McKinsey said.

“To change this trajectory, decisive action would be needed,” McKinsey said.

Of the 440 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent currently produced by African manufacturing, almost a third comes from cement and 13% is emitted by coal-to-fuel plants, which are operated by Sasol Ltd. in South Africa, the consultancy said.

To fund the development, African countries would need to tap green finance instruments such as carbon credits, green bonds, green insurance and payment for performance linked to green outcomes, Mckinsey said.  To decarbonize existing industries, $600 billion would be needed while $1.4 trillion is needed for new green businesses, the consultancy said.

Carbon capture and storage and the production of green hydrogen are two technologies that could help the continent attain the target, it said.

New industries that could be developed range from bioethanol and cross-laminated timber to electric vehicles and green hydrogen, McKinsey said.

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UNGA 2021: The World has the Resources to End Hunger, African Development Bank Head tells UN Food Systems Summit

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Akinwumi Adesina - Investors King

“The world has the resources to end hunger,” African Development Bank President Dr. Akinwumi A. Adesina said in a message on the first day of the United Nations Food Systems Summit.

Convened by UN Secretary General António Guterres, the event is billed by its organisers as “a historic opportunity to empower all people to leverage the power of food systems to drive our recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and get us back on track to achieve all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.”

The summit brings together thousands of youths, food producers, members of civil society, researchers, the private sector, women and indigenous people, all of whom are participating both physically and virtually in the summit. It is taking place on the sidelines of the 76th UN General Assembly in New York.

In his opening address, Guterres said the participants represented “energy, ideas and the willingness to create new partnerships,” and was a time to celebrate the dignity of those who produce and create the world’s food.

Decrying the 246 million people in Africa who go to bed daily without food and the continent’s 59 million stunted children as “morally and socially unacceptable,” Adesina said that delivering food security for Africa at greater scale called for prioritising technologies, climate and financing.

“The $33 billion per year required to free the world of hunger, is just 0.12% of $27 trillion that the world has deployed as stimulus to address the Covid-19 pandemic. I am confident that zero hunger can be achieved in Africa by 2030,“ Adesina said.

The African Development Bank’s Feed Africa Strategy, through its Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation program – widely known as TAAT – has provided 11 million farmers across 29 African countries with proven agricultural technologies for food security. Food production has expanded by 12 million metric tons while saving $814 million worth of food imports.

“We are well on our way to achieving our target of reaching 40 million farmers with modern and climate-resilient technologies in the next five years,” the African Development Bank chief added.

At a meeting on food security in Africa organized by the Bank and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) earlier this year, 19 African heads of state called for the establishment of a facility for financing food security and nutrition in Africa.

“The Facility for Financing Food Security and Nutrition in Africa should be capitalized with at least $ 1 billion per year,” Adesina said.

The welfare of the 70% of Africa’s population working in agriculture and agribusiness is a barometer of the state of the continent’s health.  “If they aren’t doing well, then Africa isn’t doing well,” Rwandan president Paul Kagame said in a message at the official opening.

The many other heads of state and government who spoke on Thursday included, Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy, President Felix Antoine Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh and Prime Minister Jacinda Arden of New Zealand.

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