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CBN Explains Depreciation in Naira’s Value

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CBN

The depreciation in the value of the Naira has been attributed to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.

The deputy governor, Corporate Services Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Edward Adamu said this in Abuja on Monday.

He spoke at an interactive session with the House Committee on Finance on the 2022-2024 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework/Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP).

Adamu explained that the exchange rate was determined by the forces of demand and supply and that there were three main avenues by which Nigeria got its foreign exchange.

“We have proceeds from the sale of crude oil, we have foreign portfolio inflows and remittances; those are the three major ways that we get forex.

“Crude oil sale has not been as high as we all will want it to be and obviously in the aftermath of COVID-19, the global economy grounded to a halt and the use of crude oil was also halted.

“To the extent that sometimes in April last year, we had crude oil selling at a negative, which means that people were being paid to store what they bought and so that the avenue for forex inflows was significantly reduced.

“You go on to foreign portfolio inflows, you notice that investors also settled their affairs on the side of caution and so, once COVID-19 outbreak occurred, they moved out about $120 billion dollars from emerging markets to safe havens in America and Nigeria is one of those countries from where monies were withdrawn.

“On the side of remittances, once our brothers and sisters abroad were not working because of the situation they found themselves; they had very little to send to us here and so, we also saw remittances reduced.

“On the demand side, we saw speculative demand on the side of Nigerians, if you needed a truck of goods because you are not sure of the uncertainties of COVID, you wanted to get three trucks.

“All these pressures on both the demand and supply side, the availability of dollar became more difficult and we had a decline or depreciation in the value of the naira,’’ he said.

Adamu, however, said that a lot of efforts within the CBN and the recovering global economy were helping oil prices and remittances to recover.

”This is why we are happy that the exchange rate has stabilised somewhat; it is a moving target, but it has stabilised in the import and export window for a while”, he added.

However, the Chairman of the committee, Rep. James Faleke (APC-Lagos) directed the CBN to present its audited account to the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) for scrutiny.

Faleke said that information available to the committee showed that the apex bank was yet to turn in its audited accounts since 2010 and about N800 billion was yet to be remitted to the Federal Government.

Adamu responded by saying the apex bank would interface with the OAGF and reconcile any difference there was and report to the committee in two weeks, through the Minister of Finance.

Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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