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GCR Affirms Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Limited’s National Scale Long-term Issuer Rating of AAA(NG); Outlook Stable

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Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company - Investors King

GCR Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale long term rating of AAA(NG) accorded to Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Limited, with a Stable Outlook.

Rated Entity Rating class Rating scale Rating Outlook
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee company Limited Long Term issuer National AAA(NG) Stable

Rating rationale

The rating is underpinned by the uniqueness of Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Limited’s (“InfraCredit” or “the company”) operations as a credit guarantee provider, and the company’s strong capitalisation, liquidity, and asset quality position, albeit counterbalanced by its self-regulated status.

Operational uniqueness offers some monopolistic privileges to InfraCredit, with no direct competitor in the country presently. However, the company reflects low level of diversification by product and customer base, and its operations are limited to Nigeria. Earnings growth was mainly fuelled by FX gains in FY20 as the COVID-19 pandemic impacted on finalisation of potential mandates. We expect the gradual normalisation in the economy to result in a material growth in earnings in FY21 and FY22 respectively post adjustment for FX gains. Management & Governance is a neutral ratings factor.

Overall capitalisation is a significant rating positive. A moderate negative adjustment was made due to the low core equity component of the qualifying tier-1 capital, with the GCR calculated core capital ratio standing above 20% at FY20 and year to date but expected to moderate to around 16-17% in FY21 and FY22. Revenue is considered stable, given the recurring nature and particularly the annuity-like nature of guarantee and monitoring fees, which are usually amortised and earned over the life of the guaranteed transaction, although counterbalanced by increased exposures to market sensitive income, which constituted 42.7% of total operating income in FY20 (FY19: 0.5%), thus constituting a moderate rating negative.

Risk is viewed to be somewhat contained through adoption of a stringent underwriting criteria. So far, there has been no payment default under any of the guaranteed transactions, hence no recourse to InfraCredit for repayment under any of its guaranteed transactions to date. However, note is taken of the concentrated nature of the deal portfolio (comprising four deals as at May 2021), which somewhat elevates the company’s risk profile. The USD denominated cash and liquid asset portfolio (bank balance, money market placements, Eurobonds) and due to related parties, and other financial liabilities also expose the company to foreign exchange risk, which appears to be well contained through hedging. Asset quality metrics are expected to remain sound in the foreseeable future.

Funding and liquidity is assessed at high level, with the funding base comprising mainly equity, preference shares, subordinated long term borrowings and contingent capital, all considered highly stable. Concentration risk inherent in the limited borrowing counterparties is offset by funding stability, with the unexpired tenor of the borrowings ranging from seven to nine years. The GCR calculated long-term funding ratio of 80% and 111% at FY19 and FY20 respectively is considered strong and expected to remain robust over the next 12-18 months.

Outlook statement

The stable outlook reflects GCR’s expectation that InfraCredit would ensure strong capitalisation characterised by significant core equity components, and maintain strong asset quality despite the expected rapid guaranteed portfolio growth and the strains in the operating environment.

Rating triggers

A rating downgrade could follow deterioration in asset quality, a downgrade in the ratings of any of the contingent capital providers, sustained pressure on earnings, as well a significant rise in leverage such that weakens the GCR total leverage ratio to below satisfactory level (less than 20%).

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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