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Agusto & Co Forecasts $22B Diaspora Remittances for Nigeria in 2021

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The pan-African credit rating agency, Agusto & Co has projected that Nigeria’s diaspora remittances will reach $22 billion by 2021, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) rise of five percent.

The Lagos-based firm stated this in its “2021 Nigeria Diaspora Remittance Report & Survey,” presented to members of the public.

The report anticipated a further y-o-y rise of two percent in remittances inflow to $22.5 billion by 2022. According to the report, Nigeria’s diaspora remittances dropped by 12 percent to $21 billion in 2020, from about $23.8 billion the prior year.

Head of Research at Agusto Consulting, Mr. Jimi Ogbobine, while speaking during a webinar on the report, explained that the Nigerian diaspora remittances are still an under-researched subject despite its strong bankability credentials.

He said there have been very few target-market studies on diaspora remittances in Nigeria, adding that Agusto Consulting adopted a strategy by initiating research on bankable markets with poor research coverage.

Remittances are funds transferred from migrants to their home country. They represent household income from foreign economies arising mainly from the temporary or permanent movement of people to those economies.

Remittances play important roles in the economy, helping to meet the basic needs of recipients, fund cash and non-cash investments, finance education, foster new businesses, service debts and drive economic growth.

“Previous studies have also shown that about 70 percent of remittances are used for consumption purposes, while 30 percent of remittance funds go to investment-related use,” Ogbobine explained.
He pointed out that Africa’s estimated migrant remittances of $78.3 billion in 2020 represented a modest 12 percent of the global migrant remittances.

“However, only two states within the continent represent about three-fifths of the continent’s entire migrant remittances. Egypt’s diaspora remittances of $24.4 billion in 2020 are not only the largest in Africa but also represent about a third (31.1 percent) of the continent’s entire migrant remittance.

“Nigeria ranks behind Egypt with $21 billion which represents about a quarter of the continent’s global remittances. Morocco driven by its large French diaspora represents about eight percent of the continent‘s remittance inflows with $6.3 billion. Zimbabwe continues to suffer the effects of the dysfunction in its forex regime,” it added.

According to the report, all of Africa’s top seven diaspora recipients experienced dips in remittance inflows in 2020, barring Kenya alone which grew by 2.8 percent. It revealed that Nigeria recorded the worst contractions amongst Africa’s top seven in 2020 of about 11.9 percent.

“Nigeria’s domestic policy conundrum on foreign exchange creating as many challenges to the wider macro contractions caused by the pandemic. Outside Nigeria and Kenya, the other states within the top seven bracket experienced varying degrees of contraction in diaspora remittances of between five percent to 9.4 percent in 2020,” it added.

Diaspora remittances to Africa declined by an estimated 12.5 percent in 2020 to $42 billion, almost entirely due to a 27.7 percent decline to Nigeria, which accounts for over 40 percent of such flows to the region, the World Bank recently disclosed. The Bank, in its latest Migration and Development Brief, revealed that excluding Nigeria, remittance flows to Africa increased by 2.3 percent with a 37 percent growth reported in Zambia, Mozambique (16 percent), Kenya (9 percent) and Ghana (5 percent).

It stated: “Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa declined by an estimated 12.5 percent in 2020 to $42 billion. The decline was almost entirely due to a 27.7 percent decline in remittance flows to Nigeria, which alone accounted for over 40 percent of remittance flows to the region.

“Excluding Nigeria, remittance flows to Sub-Saharan African increased by 2.3 percent. Remittance growth was reported in Zambia (37 percent), Mozambique (16 percent), Kenya (9 percent) and Ghana (5 percent).”

In 2021, remittance flows to the region are projected to rise by 2.6 percent, supported by improving prospects for growth in high-income countries.

The report noted that data on remittance flows to Sub-Saharan Africa are sparse and of uneven quality, with some countries still using the outdated Fourth IMF Balance of Payments Manual rather than the Sixth, while several other countries do not report data at all.

Giving further insight, the report said: “High-frequency phone surveys in some countries reported decreases in remittances for a large percentage of households even while recorded remittances reported by official sources report increases inflows.

“The shift from informal to formal channels due to the closure of borders explains in part the increase in the volume of remittances recorded by central banks.”

On remittance costs, the report stated that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the most expensive region to send money to, where sending $200 costs an average of 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.

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Banking Sector

Wema Bank Celebrates 79th Anniversary with Launch of CoopHub for Cooperative Societies

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Wema Bank, one of Nigeria’s leading financial institutions, has introduced a digital solution tailored for cooperative societies.

The innovative platform, named CoopHub, was developed to drive digital transformation and empower communities across Nigeria.

The unveiling of CoopHub took center stage at the bank’s anniversary celebration, held on Friday amidst much anticipation and excitement.

The launch of this pioneering platform underscores Wema Bank’s dedication to innovation and customer-centricity, aiming to revolutionize the operations of cooperative societies and address longstanding challenges within the sector.

At the heart of CoopHub lies a strategic vision to redefine the way cooperative societies function by providing tailored solutions that bridge the gaps inherent in traditional cooperative frameworks.

Designed to streamline operations, enhance communication, and promote financial inclusivity, CoopHub aims to empower cooperative societies and their members for optimal productivity and growth.

Moruf Oseni, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Wema Bank, emphasized the strategic importance of CoopHub in addressing the pain points faced by cooperative societies.

He highlighted challenges such as manual recordkeeping, limited access to loans, poor communication, insecurity, and other restrictions that CoopHub seeks to overcome. Oseni reaffirmed Wema Bank’s commitment to innovation and customer-centricity, stating that CoopHub represents a significant step forward in empowering communities across Nigeria.

Solomon Ayodele, Wema Bank’s Head of Innovation, elaborated on the transformative features of CoopHub, emphasizing its role in ushering cooperative societies into a new era of efficiency and transparency.

Ayodele highlighted features such as a digitized database for recordkeeping, user management capabilities for leaders, transparent overviews of contributions, seamless communication frameworks, and robust security measures, including a three-factor authentication system for withdrawals.

Ayodele urged cooperative societies to embrace CoopHub and experience the future of cooperative operations firsthand.

He emphasized the platform’s potential to eliminate conflicts, mistrust, and inefficiencies, offering a seamless and secure ecosystem for cooperative members to thrive.

The launch of CoopHub comes at a time when cooperative societies play a vital role in Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape.

According to the National Cooperative Financing Agency of Nigeria, over 30 million Nigerians belong to cooperative societies, highlighting the significant impact of these entities on community development and financial inclusion.

As Wema Bank embarks on its 79th year of operation, the introduction of CoopHub underscores the institution’s commitment to driving positive change and fostering sustainable growth within Nigeria’s cooperative sector.

With its innovative features and transformative capabilities, CoopHub promises to empower cooperative societies, enhance financial inclusivity, and catalyze socio-economic development across Nigeria.

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Banking Sector

Analysts Place “Buy” on Fidelity Bank

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Highly-rated, independent investment advisory firms have picked Fidelity Bank as a very attractive stock with potential to generate high returns for investors.

Independent investment research reports by many market pundits reviewed at the weekend showed that Fidelity Bank was assigned “buy” ticker, a recommendation to investors to consider the potential attractive returns of the bank.

The research reports were based on the historical and current operational performances of the bank as well as the clear-sighted implementation of the bank’s growth plan. The reports also considered the quality of board and management and the general human capital and resources of the bank.

The investment advisory reports included those of Afrinvest Group, FSDH Capital and CardinalStone among others.

Analysts were unanimous that Fidelity Bank’s share price could double in the period ahead given professional assessment of top traditional performance parameters including the company’s operational reports, investors’ preference and projections.

CardinalStone stated that Fidelity Bank’s share price could double citing the bank’s “robust earnings growth” and the increasing profitability of its core banking operations.

After an extensive review of the global and domestic stock markets, FSDH Capital selected Fidelity Bank as one of the “FSDH Top Picks”, a group of stocks that the investment advisory firm considered to be most attractive for discerning investors. FSDH Capital’s stock selection considered a stock’s pricing history, dividend history, fundamental values and peer ratios among others.

Providing background on analysts’ exhaustive research for stock selection, Afrinvest explained that the company’s fair value estimate “takes into account a weighted average of price estimates derived from a blend of valuation methodologies including the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and its variants as well as other relative and comparable trading multiples valuation models”.

“However, we attach the most weight to DCF valuation methodology, particularly the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Free Cash Flow (FCF) model and Residual Income Valuation/Model (RIV/RIM). The utilization of comparable trading multiples is guided by the analysts’ understanding of the banks’ fundamentals, as well as key price drivers from the firm, industry and macroeconomic perspectives,” Afrinvest stated.

The “buy” rating, according to analysts, implies that “the expected total return over the next 12 months is 25 per cent or more. Investors are advised to take positions at the prevailing market price as at the report date”.

Afrinvest projected that Fidelity Bank, with a dividend yield of 9.3 per cent, has price upside potential of more than 35 per cent. This effectively makes the stock an inflation-hedging stock, implying that investors in the bank’s shares can retain money value despite the current inflationary environment.

Futureview Group said Fidelity Bank’s recent operational reports highlighted the bank’s “excellent operational performance and the breadth of its income sources”.

The audited report and accounts of Fidelity Bank for the year ended December 31, 2023 had shown that gross earnings rose by 65 per cent to N555.83 billion. The top-line performance was driven by significant growths across income lines including 55 per cent growth in interest income, 562 per cent increase in other operating income and 44 per cent growth in fee and commission income.

The bottom-line fared better with net profit after tax rising by 99 per cent to N99.46 billion in 2023.  Earnings per share (EPS) thus jumped by 93 per cent to N3.11, providing a strong buffer for the bank to increase dividend payout without undermining its sustainability.

Interim report and account of the bank for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024 also showed that the bank started the current business year on stronger footing with three-digit growths across key performance indicators.

The three-month report, released at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), showed that gross earnings increased by 89.9 per cent to N192.1 billion in first quarter 2024. The bank’s top-line performance continued to be driven by broad-based growths across income lines with interest income rising by 90.7 per cent and non-interest income growing by 84 per cent in first quarter 2024.

Growth in interest income was primarily spurred by a higher yield environment and strong earning assets base, while the increase in non-interest income was led by double-digit growth in account maintenance charges, foreign exchange (forex)-related income, trade, banking services, and remittances, supported by increased customer transactions.

Profit before tax doubled by 120 per cent to N39.5 billion in first quarter 2024 as against N17.9 billion in first quarter 2023. The bank’s performance was driven by expanding market share with total deposit rising by 17 per cent within the three months to N4.7 trillion, compared with N4 trillion recorded at the end of 2023. The bank also increased its supports for national economic growth with net loans and advances rising by 21 per cent from N3.1 trillion at the end of 2023 to N3.7 trillion by March 2024.

Managing Director, Fidelity Bank Plc, Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe said the bank’s performance was due to its strategic focus on customer-centricity, digital innovation and operational excellence.

“Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we remained resilient and agile, delivering double-digit growth on key income lines while advancing our business sustainability agenda.

“Beginning the year on this inspiring note reaffirms our strategy of helping individuals to grow, inspiring businesses to thrive and empowering economies to prosper. We are committed to our guidance as we build a more resilient business franchise with a well-diversified earnings base in 2024,” Onyeali-Ikpe said.

Ranked as one of the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank is a full-fledged customer commercial bank with over 8.5 million customers serviced across its 251 business offices in Nigeria and the United Kingdom as well as on digital banking channels.

The bank has won multiple local and international awards including the Export Finance Bank of the Year at the 2023 BusinessDay Banks and Other Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards, the Best Payment Solution Provider Nigeria 2023 and Best SME Bank Nigeria 2022 by the Global Banking and Finance Awards; Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2023; and Best Domestic Private Bank in Nigeria by the Euromoney Global Private Banking Awards 2023.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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