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States Jerk up Deficit Spending by 90% to N800bn

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Naira - Investors King

States Jerk up Deficit Spending by 90% to N800bn

The 36 state governments are set to incur about N800 billion budget deficit in 2021, representing a 90 per cent increase from the N420 billion recorded in 2020.

Analysis of the approved budgets for the 36 states show total proposed revenue of N7.05 trillion as against total proposed expenditure of N7.85 trillion, translating to a budget deficit of N800 billion.

In 2020, the states had N5.02 trillion as budgeted expenditure with N4.6 trillion as budgeted revenue, thus deficit of N420 billion.

Consequently, the N800 billion proposed budget deficit for 2021 represents a 90 per cent increase when compared with the N420 billion proposed budget deficit of the states in 2020.

Budget 2021 Breakdown

Further analysis of the states proposed budget showed dominance of capital expenditure which accounted for 54.8 percent of the total proposed budget while recurrent expenditure accounted for 44.6 per cent or N3.5 trillion.

Further analysis also showed that the proposed 2021 budget of N7.85 trillion is dominated by five states which accounted for 20 percent of the total states’ budget.

The five states are: Lagos (N1.15 trillion), Rivers (N448 billion), Akwa Ibom (N435 billion), Imo (N346 billion) and Ogun (N339 billion).

On the other side are the five states with the lowest budget, which accounted for 7.1 percent or N562.2 billion of the total proposed budget.

The states are Yobe (N106.9 billion), Ekiti (N109.6 billion), Osun (N109.8 billion), Nassarawa (N112.9 billion) and Ebonyi (N123 billion).

Revenue profile

Analysis also showed that 52 percent or N3.39 trillion of the proposed revenue of N7.05 trillion will come from Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

According to their approved budgets, the 36 states hope to raise N1.82 trillion from IGR, to complement FAAC receipts of N1.87 trillion.

Five states dominated the proposed revnue of N7.05 trillion for 2021 with 33.6 percent or N2.37 trillion. The states are: Lagos (N962.52 billion), Rivers (N448.6 billion), Delta (N384 billion), Ogun (N320 billion) and Akwa Ibom (N255.03 billion).

On the other hand, the five states at the bottom of the revenue chart accounted for 6.5 per cent or N464.46 billion. The five states are Ebonyi (N64 billion), Enugu (N79.76 billion), Oyo (N102.8 billion), Yobe (N106.9 billion) and Gombe (N111 billion).

In terms of FAAC revenue, Lagos and four other states dominated the chart accounting for 20.8 per cent or N389.88 billion. Lagos state led with N116.78 billion, followed by Katsina (N74 billion), Niger (N71.8 billion) , Bauchi (N68.3 billion) and Ogun (N59 billion).

At the bottom of the FAAC revenue chart are five states which accounted for 9.3 per cent or N174.1 billion. These are Ekiti with N29.4 billion, Ondo (N34.4 billion), Yobe (N35.3 billion) , Akwa Ibom (N36 billion) and Gombe (N39 billion).

States with the highest projected IGR are Lagos (N732.6 billion), Ogun (N119 billion), Jigawa (N51.6 billion), Kaduna (N50.6 billion) and Anambra (N36.6 billion).

States with the lowest 2021 projected IGR are Adamawa (N12 billion), Ebonyi (N12 billion), Kebbi (N12.2 billion), Katsina (N15.6 billion) and Benue (N19.7 billion).

States Deficit Funding Plans

Lagos State said it will finance the proposed deficit of N192.49 billion through external loans of N37.26 billion, internal loans of N55.24 billion and bond issuance of N100 billion this year.

On its part, the Kaduna State government intends to finance its budget deficit through internal grants of N39.99 billion, external grants of N9.2 billion, external loans of N46.9 billion while N1 billion will be generated through sale of government assets worth N1 billion.

On the other hand, Kano State is targeting N6 billion from internal and external loans as well as N33.29 billion from general grants.

Benue State said it will finance its N23.8 billion deficit through a combination of domestic loans and bond issuance.

Akwa Ibom on its part said it will finance its N180.6 billion deficit through internal loans of N40.04 billion, grants of N34 billion. Others are Ecological Fund – N2 billion, Reimbursement from Federal Government on Road and other Infrastructure – N 15 billion, N500 million from Investment Income; Exceptional Income of N 61.105 billion and N1 billion from Stabilization Account.

Anambra State plans to fund its N11 billion deficit through domestic loans at concessionary interest rates. Kogi State however noted that its estimated Capital Receipt is N48.08 comprising internal and external loans, aids and grants.

Abia State also indicated it will finance its N29.68 billion through domestic loans.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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