Connect with us


Banks to Experience Severe Credit Losses in Late 2021 – Mckinsey & Company



First Bank

The crisis of 2008 came from within the financial services industry. Today, in this crisis of the real economy, banks are economically afflicted alongside other sectors in society. But banks are also playing an important role in helping society through the crisis: as the conduit for state support, supporting small businesses, companies and individual citizens.

The crisis is delivering, in effect, the biggest stress test to banks, a test which the industry is withstanding to-date, whilst demonstrating resilience and purpose. The impact of the last year without the role the industry has played is likely much deeper.

Going forward, McKinsey anticipates the test presented for banks by the pandemic will evolve in two stages in the months and years ahead. First will come severe credit losses, likely through late 2021; almost all banks and banking systems are expected to survive. Then, amid a muted global recovery, banks will face a profound challenge to ongoing operations that may persist beyond 2024.

  • Depending on scenario, average return on equity globally would continue its decline, from 8.9 percent in 2019 to 4.9 percent in 2020 to 1.5 percent in 2021. At the trough in 2021, ROE would fall to −1.1 percent in North America, −1.8 percent in Europe, and −0.2 percent in developed Asia. ROE would fall from higher starting levels and bottom out higher in emerging Asia (2.6 percent), the Middle East and Africa (MEA; 3.7 percent), and Latin America (5.2 percent); and it would take a smaller dip to 8.6 percent in China.
  • African banks enjoyed one of the highest ROEs in the world, however the overall ROE is expected to half at 7.6 percent in next 2 years, while revenues after risk may decline by 15 percent in a muted recovery scenario. In the short term, banks will be affected by cascading credit losses resulting in 50 percent impact on revenues while in the long term, continued pressure on margins and moderate volume growth might dwarf the revenue growth to half of pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • The onset of recovery is likely to vary by country as level of provisioning done by banks in 2020 will be a deciding factor if they will see V- or U-shaped recovery. In SA and Kenya, banks have already provisioned highly for potential bad debts while Morocco and Nigeria may continue to increase provisions in 2021 as well.

Francois Jurd de Girancourt, Head of the Banking Practice in Africa said: “The ROE recovery post COVID-19 is projected to be lower compared to pre-crisis levels, unless banks further improve their cost efficiency. African banks cost to asset ratio is 2.3 times higher than the global average and based on our estimates, banks would need to increase their operating efficiency by at least 25-30 percent to converge back to 2019 ROEs.”

Marie-Claude Nadeau, San Francisco-based McKinsey partner and report author said: “Banks will need to act quickly to return to precrisis ROE levels, in a far more challenging environment than the decade just past. The period of zero percent interest rates is being prolonged by the economic crisis and will reduce net interest margins, pushing incumbents to rethink their risk-intermediation-based business models. The trade-off between rebuilding capital and paying dividends will be stark, and deteriorating ratings of borrowers will lead to inflation of risk-weighted assets, which will tighten the squeeze.”

Mayowa Kuyoro,  a partner at McKinsey & Company in Lagos, Nigeria said: “In Nigeria, our analysis is that ROE levels are likely to recover by 2024, although they will remain low compared to pre-crisis levels. To proactively manage this, Nigerian banks will need to revisit and interrogate matters of efficiency and productivity to deliver services to more people at lower cost. The rapid shift to digital is clearing the way for banks to ramp up their use of data and analytics to enhance services and reduce costs. For banks that are existing market leaders, now is the time to consider investing in technology infrastructure and talent to expand beyond current customers and products. Equipping employees with the right skills and digital tools, doubling down on digital marketing, and establishing robust digital infrastructure are likely to be key enablers for success in the next normal.” 

For the long term, banks need to reset their agenda in ways that few expected nine months ago. McKinsey sets out three imperatives that will position banks well against the trends now taking shape.

  1. They must embed newfound speed and agility, identifying what worked well in their response to the crisis and finding ways to preserve those practices.
  2. They must fundamentally reinvent their business model to sustain a long winter of zero percent interest rates and economic challenges, while also adopting the best new ideas from digital challengers.
  3. And they must bring their broader purpose to the fore, especially environmental, social, and governance issues, and collaborate with the communities they serve to recast their contract with society.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Continue Reading


Thomson Reuters Announces New $100M “Future of Professionals” Venture Capital Fund




Thomson Reuters today announced the creation of a new $100 million Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) fund to support and accelerate innovation for the “Future of Professionals.” The fund will operate under the name “Thomson Reuters Ventures” and concentrate on investments and portfolio support for companies building breakthrough innovations that will allow professionals to operate more productively and with greater insights.

As a leader in content-enabled technology across the Legal, Tax & Accounting, Risk, Fraud, Compliance, and News & Media markets, customers rely on Thomson Reuters to deliver trusted solutions to manage and grow their businesses. Thomson Reuters Ventures builds on this commitment by investing in and supporting the broader ecosystem focused on these same challenges.

“I’m delighted to add Thomson Reuters Ventures as another way that we are investing in innovation and serving our markets. Our customers are the most informed professionals in the world, and they need to be trusted, accurate, and effective solutions now more than ever. We’re excited to partner with founders and entrepreneurs who share these goals, and to continue to drive emerging solutions as the industry leader,” said Steve Hasker, President and CEO of Thomson Reuters.

“Thomson Reuters Ventures is ultimately about investing in innovation and serving customers. Whether it be AI and Machine Learning innovations that allow professionals to better predict outcomes, identify and act on trusted information, or automate processes for greater efficiency, the overall goal remains the same. We are focused on identifying and supporting innovative companies that can help our customers deliver more value to their customers,” said Pat Wilburn, Chief Strategy Officer of Thomson Reuters, and Executive Director of Thomson Reuters Ventures.

Thomson Reuters Ventures will invest primarily in earlier-stage companies via Series A and B rounds, with a broad lens across Legal, Tax & Accounting, Risk, Fraud, and Compliance, News and Media, Corporates and adjacent areas. Our market positions, relationships with customers and organizational resources make us an ideal partner for entrepreneurs building and scaling companies.

Continue Reading


Islamic Estate Planning: Protect your Family and Leave a Legacy – FBNQuest



FBNquest - Investors King

Islamic Estate Planning involves the distribution of your assets that serve to preserve, manage, and distribute them after death according to the principles of the Shari’ah. According to the Islamic ordinance, those principles are significant in planning for dependents and represent an investment in the afterlife.

Islamic inheritance laws organise your wealth ownership and assets to ensure fairness and justice after your passing. Instead of leaving the tough decisions to grieving family members, you can arrange the gifting of your assets in advance. This creates a streamlined process for the distribution of the inheritance to all family members.

Islamic estate planning is essential in the life of Muslim faithfuls. Indeed, if you pass away as a Muslim without a proper plan for your assets, you may be breaching the bequest guidance stated in the Holy Book, which serves as an instruction manual for a Muslim’s life. However, many are not concerned with making an inheritance plan, even though a failure to make one could trigger intense family debate and hinder the transfer of some assets to specific beneficiaries.

According to the guiding principles of Islamic estate planning, after covering the funeral expenses and debts owed by the deceased, a person may designate up to one-third of their wealth. This discretionary giving is known as the Wasiyyah. However, there are limitations to this discretionary giving. For example, Wasiyyah cannot be given to someone already receiving a share under the Islamic inheritance laws. The Wasiyyah is most commonly given to charity or to care for distant relatives who cannot provide for themselves.

The residual two-thirds is the Mirath and is reserved for the Islamic heirs as ordained in the Holy Book. Primary beneficiaries are those who will inherit some of your wealth, provided that they are alive and Muslim. These are your spouse, children, and parents, and they receive a fixed share of the wealth. Secondary beneficiaries are those whose share of the inheritance is contingent on whether other primary beneficiaries are still alive. These may include siblings, grandparents, grandchildren, aunts, uncles, and other relatives. It is vital to appreciate the rights and obligations relating to an estate.

In preparing to bequeath an inheritance, it is crucial to organise your wealth in a manner that will make assets acceptable for consideration in an Islamic estate plan. In this regard, investments should be screened for compliance with Islamic estate ethics, and investments in interest-bearing assets are disqualified. Instead, it would help if you endeavoured to invest in increasingly popular Sukuk bonds. You should consider Mudarabah Investment accounts as substitutes to fixed deposit accounts and subscribe to a family takaful policy instead of a life insurance policy in your saving plans. As for pension assets, you should opt for a multi-fund structure with an option to invest in Shari’ah-compliant instruments.

Zakat, the third pillar of Islam, is a compulsory giving required from every financially stable Muslim. Those who have acquired wealth are obligated to respond to people in need and give back to the community. This response could include sponsoring widows or the education students and organising in a charitable Trust as part of an Islamic estate plan. Therefore, you must consult a professional estate planner to assist with setting up a Trust arrangement where 2.5% of your assets/wealth is set aside annually for Zakat.

Several other tools can be used to organise the transfer of assets to a specific beneficiary. They include Hiba (making gifts), Waqf (setting up an endowment or trust), Wasiyya (transfers by donation), and it is appointing a Wasi or guardian for living dependents. Getting it right requires a thorough understanding of the principles of Islamic estate planning and the various assets available to achieve compliance. FBNQuest Trustees can guide you through creating an Islamic estate plan that makes life easier for your beneficiaries.

Continue Reading

Banking Sector

Fidelity Bank Empowers Entrepreneurs to Play Big In The Non-Oil Export Market



For developing countries such as Nigeria to accelerate economic growth, there needs to be greater private sector participation in their export sectors. This was made known by Isaiah Ndukwe, Divisional Head, Export and Agriculture, Fidelity Bank PLC, at the just concluded 11th edition of the Fidelity Bank Export Management Programme (EMP 11).

Held at the Lagos Business School, from the 4th to 8th of October 2021, the programme, covered a wide range of topics including export documentation and application of export development processes and was facilitated by leading faculty from Lagos Business School, staff of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) and experts in financial management and exports.

“Year-in, year-out, Fidelity Bank has demonstrated its resolve to help diversify the Nigerian economy and increase export earnings. One of the ways we are doing this is through the Export Management Programme which provides participants with the knowledge needed to navigate both the international non-oil export market and the larger export market,” explained Mrs. Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, Managing Director, Fidelity Bank PLC when tasked on the rationale behind the programme.

The importance of exports has continually been emphasized by various bodies as it provides a means of increasing the markets for producers and especially in Nigeria’s case, an opportunity to attract much-needed foreign exchange earnings. In fact, Akinwunmi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), speaking recently at the Mid-term Ministerial Performance Review Meeting on the topic: ‘Nigeria’s Economic Resurgence: The African Experience’ expressed worry over disincentives to non-oil exports in the Nigerian economy. He, therefore, urged Nigerian fiscal authorities to remove bottlenecks in non-oil exports in order to promote economic resurgence.

One of the participants of the EMP 11, Mr. Kelechi Chukwukezirim, Chief Executive Officer of Dot Global Resources Nigeria Ltd said, “I am thankful to Fidelity Bank and Lagos Business School for this insightful and highly educative program. I came here with just an awareness of export management. However, my experience in the past five days has taken me from point zero to over 40% of quality knowledge on export management. I have enthused at the network and platform this program created that I could leverage going forward. I am excited at what the future holds in this regard”.

According to Mrs. Onyeali-Ikpe, “Previous editions of the EMP have recorded outstanding successes and made marked impacts in the lives and businesses of the participants. We are proud to say that the just-concluded eleventh edition is no exception. The feedback we have gotten from facilitators and participants alike has been nothing short of encouraging. The turnout was tremendous and we are certain that we will witness astonishing results as the participants put what they learned into practice.”

Continue Reading