Finance

Banks to Experience Severe Credit Losses in Late 2021 – Mckinsey & Company

Published

3 years ago

December 29, 2020

The crisis of 2008 came from within the financial services industry. Today, in this crisis of the real economy, banks are economically afflicted alongside other sectors in society. But banks are also playing an important role in helping society through the crisis: as the conduit for state support, supporting small businesses, companies and individual citizens.

The crisis is delivering, in effect, the biggest stress test to banks, a test which the industry is withstanding to-date, whilst demonstrating resilience and purpose. The impact of the last year without the role the industry has played is likely much deeper.

Going forward, McKinsey anticipates the test presented for banks by the pandemic will evolve in two stages in the months and years ahead. First will come severe credit losses, likely through late 2021; almost all banks and banking systems are expected to survive. Then, amid a muted global recovery, banks will face a profound challenge to ongoing operations that may persist beyond 2024.

Depending on scenario, average return on equity globally would continue its decline, from 8.9 percent in 2019 to 4.9 percent in 2020 to 1.5 percent in 2021. At the trough in 2021, ROE would fall to −1.1 percent in North America, −1.8 percent in Europe, and −0.2 percent in developed Asia. ROE would fall from higher starting levels and bottom out higher in emerging Asia (2.6 percent), the Middle East and Africa (MEA; 3.7 percent), and Latin America (5.2 percent); and it would take a smaller dip to 8.6 percent in China.
African banks enjoyed one of the highest ROEs in the world, however the overall ROE is expected to half at 7.6 percent in next 2 years, while revenues after risk may decline by 15 percent in a muted recovery scenario. In the short term, banks will be affected by cascading credit losses resulting in 50 percent impact on revenues while in the long term, continued pressure on margins and moderate volume growth might dwarf the revenue growth to half of pre-COVID-19 levels.
The onset of recovery is likely to vary by country as level of provisioning done by banks in 2020 will be a deciding factor if they will see V- or U-shaped recovery. In SA and Kenya, banks have already provisioned highly for potential bad debts while Morocco and Nigeria may continue to increase provisions in 2021 as well.

Francois Jurd de Girancourt, Head of the Banking Practice in Africa said: “The ROE recovery post COVID-19 is projected to be lower compared to pre-crisis levels, unless banks further improve their cost efficiency. African banks cost to asset ratio is 2.3 times higher than the global average and based on our estimates, banks would need to increase their operating efficiency by at least 25-30 percent to converge back to 2019 ROEs.”

Marie-Claude Nadeau, San Francisco-based McKinsey partner and report author said: “Banks will need to act quickly to return to precrisis ROE levels, in a far more challenging environment than the decade just past. The period of zero percent interest rates is being prolonged by the economic crisis and will reduce net interest margins, pushing incumbents to rethink their risk-intermediation-based business models. The trade-off between rebuilding capital and paying dividends will be stark, and deteriorating ratings of borrowers will lead to inflation of risk-weighted assets, which will tighten the squeeze.”

Mayowa Kuyoro, a partner at McKinsey & Company in Lagos, Nigeria said: “In Nigeria, our analysis is that ROE levels are likely to recover by 2024, although they will remain low compared to pre-crisis levels. To proactively manage this, Nigerian banks will need to revisit and interrogate matters of efficiency and productivity to deliver services to more people at lower cost. The rapid shift to digital is clearing the way for banks to ramp up their use of data and analytics to enhance services and reduce costs. For banks that are existing market leaders, now is the time to consider investing in technology infrastructure and talent to expand beyond current customers and products. Equipping employees with the right skills and digital tools, doubling down on digital marketing, and establishing robust digital infrastructure are likely to be key enablers for success in the next normal.”

For the long term, banks need to reset their agenda in ways that few expected nine months ago. McKinsey sets out three imperatives that will position banks well against the trends now taking shape.

They must embed newfound speed and agility, identifying what worked well in their response to the crisis and finding ways to preserve those practices.
They must fundamentally reinvent their business model to sustain a long winter of zero percent interest rates and economic challenges, while also adopting the best new ideas from digital challengers.
And they must bring their broader purpose to the fore, especially environmental, social, and governance issues, and collaborate with the communities they serve to recast their contract with society.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

Published

12 hours ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

Published

2 days ago

April 23, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

Banking Sector

FMBN Set for Commercialization to Improve Affordable Mortgage Financing

Published

2 days ago

April 22, 2024

Samed Olukoya

In a bid to bolster housing delivery efficiency and enhance affordable mortgage financing for Nigerians, the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) is gearing up for commercialization.

This move comes as part of the Nigerian government’s efforts to address the housing deficit and ensure adequate shelter for its citizens.

The Managing Director of FMBN, Shehu Osidi, made this announcement during a courtesy visit by the Federal Housing Delivery Reforms Task Team at the bank’s headquarters in Abuja.

Led by Mr. Adedeji Adesemoye and Brig. Gen. Tunde Reis, the task team discussed strategies to revitalize the housing sector, with a focus on FMBN’s pivotal role in providing affordable mortgage financing.

Osidi explained the bank’s commitment to supporting the government’s agenda of reforming and improving the housing sector, which is vital for sustainable development and enhancing citizens’ quality of life.

He underscored FMBN’s significant journey in the history of mortgage and housing finance in Nigeria and expressed optimism about the forthcoming commercialization process.

The commercialization plan involves repositioning and recapitalization efforts, following extensive engagements with the Bureau of Public Enterprise (BPE).

Osidi stressed the importance of aligning the bank’s operations with its mandate of affordable mortgage financing, ensuring that it remains a reliable partner in the quest for accessible housing solutions.

As part of its strategic blueprint, FMBN has prioritized various initiatives to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency.

Of note is the ICT project aimed at upgrading core banking applications that is almost complete and promised to revolutionize customers’ experience.

Also, amendments to the FMBN and NFH Acts are underway in the National Assembly, addressing key areas to facilitate the bank’s transformation.

Despite challenges, including performance issues with estate development loans, FMBN is determined to overcome obstacles and achieve its objectives.

The commercialization plan aligns with broader efforts to deepen reforms and foster a remarkable turnaround in the housing sector.

By focusing on process automation, cost efficiency, credit quality enhancement, and strategic partnerships, FMBN aims to catalyze sustainable growth and address the nation’s housing needs effectively.

Chairman of the Federal Housing Reforms Task Team, Adedeji Adesomoye, reiterated the committee’s mandate to review the operations and governance structures of key housing institutions.

With ambitious targets set by the government, including the construction of 20,000 housing units in 2024 and 50,000 units in subsequent years, the commercialization of FMBN marks a pivotal step towards realizing Nigeria’s housing aspirations.

As the commercialization process unfolds, FMBN stands poised to play a central role in facilitating access to affordable mortgage financing, thereby contributing to the realization of homeownership dreams for millions of Nigerians.