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COVID-19 Plunges Nigeria’s GDP by the Most, Contracts by 6.10% in Q2 2020

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Nigeria’s Economy Contracts by 6.10% in Q2 2020 as COVID-19 Bites

Nigeria’s economy contracted by the most on record in the second quarter as COVID-19 negative impacts plunged activities, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

Africa’s largest economy contracted by 6.10 percent year-on-year in real terms in the quarter under review. Bringing an end to a 3-year of low but steady economic recovery started after the 2016 economic recession.

NBS attributed the decline to drop in global and local economic activities due to the global pandemic that disrupted both logistics and global economic activities during the quarter.

Nigeria’s revenue generation plunged to a record-low during the period as low oil price and weak demand dragged on the nation’s foreign reserves and ability to services its petrol-dollar economy.

The domestic efforts ranged from initial restrictions of human and vehicular movement implemented in only a few states to a nationwide curfew, bans on domestic and international travel, closure of schools and markets etc., affecting both local and international trade. The efforts, led by both the Federal and State governments, evolved over the course of the quarter and
persisted throughout,” the NBS noted.

However, when compared with the same period of 2019, when the economy grew by 2.12 percent, the economy declined by 8.22 percent and recorded a 7.97 percent decline when compared to 1.87 percent posted in the first quarter of 2020.

Accordingly, Nigeria’s real GDP contracted by 2.18 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year, down from 2.11 percent growth recorded in the same period of 2019.

On a quarterly basis, the real economy decreased by 5.04 percent. The report noted that only 13 sectors recorded positive real growth in the quarter, down from 30 posted in the first quarter.

Similarly, aggregate GDP declined by 2.8 percent from N35,001,877.95 million achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2019 to N34,023,197.60 million in nominal terms.

In general, the nominal growth rate contracted by 16.81 percent and 14.81 percent when compared with the second quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020.

Oil Sector

During the period under review, Nigeria’s daily crude oil production stood at 1.81 million barrels per day (mbpd), representing 0.21 mbpd decline from 2.02 mbpd posted in the same period of 2019 and 0.26 percent lower than the 2.07 mbpd pumped in the first quarter of 2020.

Despite the reasonable moderate production level, growth in the oil sector contracted by 6.63 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, a decrease of 13.80 percent when compared to the corresponding period of 2019. Growth in the sector declined by 11.69 percent from 5.06 percent growth achieved in the first quarter.

On a quarterly basis, the sector contracted by 10.82 percent. Largely due to weak global demand for the commodity, especially the expensive Nigerian oil when compared to Saudi Arabia and Iraq offering huge discounts to sustain sales.

Still, the sector contributed 8.93 percent to the total real economy in the second quarter, lower than the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it accounted for 8.98 percent and 9.50 percent, respectively.

Non-oil Sector

The real GDP of the non-oil sector contracted by 6.05 percent in the reference quarter. The first decline since the third quarter of 2017 and represents a 7.70 percent decline from the number posted in Q2 2019 and 7.60 percent lower than the first quarter of 2020 result.

Output in the sector was driven largely by Financial and Insurance, Information and Communication, Agriculture and Public Administration. NBS said these four non-oil sectors moderated the economy-wide decline.

According to the bureau, the Transport and Storage, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, Education, Real estate and Trade experienced the largest decline in the quarter under review.

The non-oil sector accounted for 91.07 percent of Nigeria’s aggregate GDP in real terms. Again, higher than the 90.50 percent recorded in the first quarter and 91.02 percent posted in the same period of 2020.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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