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Nigerian Economy Expands at Slower Pace of 1.87% in Q1, 2020

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  • Nigerian Economy Expands at Slower Pace of 1.87% in Q1, 2020

Nigerian economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of the year as the negative impacts of global disruptions have started crystalising in Africa’s largest economy.

The disruption in global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a sharp fall in global oil prices and weighed on economic activities towards the end of the quarter after the nation recorded its index case in February.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 1.87 percent year-on-year in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020. This was 0.23 percent lower than the pace of growth recorded in Q1 2019 and 0.68 percent below the final quarter of 2019.

Q1 2019 Q2 2109 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Total Q1 2020
CONTRIBUTION TO GDP
AGRICULTURE 21.89 22.78 29.25 26.09 25.16 21.96
INDUSTRIES 23.56 23.34 22.17 20.27 22.25 23.65
SERVICES 54.55 53.87 48.59 53.64 52.60 54.39
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
NON OIL  90.78 91.02 90.23 92.68 91.22 90.50
OIL  9.22 8.98 9.77 7.32 8.78 9.50
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
GROWTH
AGRICULTURE 3.17 1.79 2.28 2.31 2.36 2.20
INDUSTRIES 0.42 2.84 3.21 2.75 2.31 2.26
SERVICES 2.41 1.94 1.87 2.60 2.22 1.57
REAL GROWTH RATE AT BASIC PRICE 2.10 2.12 2.28 2.55 2.27 1.87
REAL GROWTH RATE AT MARKET PRICE 2.06 2.14 2.14 2.46 2.21 1.95
NON OIL GROWTH RATE 2.47 1.64 1.85 2.26 2.06 1.55
OIL GROWTH RATE -1.46 7.17 6.49 6.36 4.59 5.06

On a quarterly basis, the real GDP contracted by 14.27 percent when compared with the 5.59 percent growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter. This, the bureau attributed to the effects of the disruption in global supplies, especially in the non-oil sector of the economy.

In the quarter, aggregate GDP rose to N35,647,406.08 million with a growth rate of 12.01 percent in nominal terms. This was better than the N31,824,349.67 million reported in the first quarter of 2019 and 0.11 percent higher than the nominal growth rate but 0.32 percent lower than the preceding quarter.

Oil Sector

In the first quarter, Nigeria produced 2.07 million barrels per day, more than the 1.99 mbpd recorded in Q1, 2019 and 0.06 mbpd higher than the fourth quarter of 2019.

Accordingly, the sector expanded by 5.06 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, an increase of 6.51 percent when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019. Growth, however, decreased by 1.30 percent when compared with Q4 2019.

On a quarterly basis, the sector grew by 11.30 percent in the first quarter, contributing 9.50 percent to aggregate real GDP. Higher than the percentage contributed in the first quarter of 2019 as the share of the non-oil sector declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Non-oil Sector

The uncertainty surrounding the global economy weighed on the non-oil sector in the first quarter as the sector grew by 1.55 percent in real terms. This was 0.93 percent slowed than the rated filed for the same quarter of 2019 and 0.72 percent slower than the fourth quarter of 2019.

The sector was mainly driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Agriculture (Crop Production), Mining and Quarrying (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas), and Construction, the NBS stated.

In real terms, the sector accounted for 90.50 percent of Nigeria’s GDP in the first quarter, slightly below the 90.78 percent and 92.68 percent recorded in the first quarter and fourth quarter of last year respectively.

It should be noted that while the report reflects the negative impact of COVID-19, it did not capture the full impact on the economy as COVID-19 broke out in Nigeria on February 27 and lockdown was announced in the last week of March. Therefore, the second quarter report would likely contract as economic activities were down most of the quarter.

 

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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