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Nigeria to Struggle Amid low Oil Prices, Weak Reserves

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  • Nigeria to Struggle Amid low Oil Prices, Weak Reserves

President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday sets up a new committee to review the impacts of low oil prices on the 2020 budget following a 30 percent decline in oil price on Monday, bringing the year-to-date decline to 49.5 percent.

Crude oil plunged from $71.28 per barrel it traded in January 2020 to $31.26 on Monday before pulling back to $36.03 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members failed to convince Russia to agree to an additional cut of 1.5 million barrels per day to artificially prop up oil prices as more cases of coronavirus weighs on global oil demand, especially from China, the largest importer of the commodity.

UKOilDaily 7President Muhammadu Buhari had passed a N10.59 trillion budget for the year with oil price benchmarked at $57 per barrel while crude oil production was assumed at 2.18 million barrels per day. The administration estimated that about 35 percent or N3.7 trillion of the N10.59 trillion budget would come from oil revenue while the N2.18 trillion estimated deficit would be financed through foreign and domestic borrowing and the 50 percent increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) and other locally generated revenue would take care of the rest.

But with crude oil trading at $36.03 a barrel, the federal government is losing $20.97 per barrel assuming production level remains 2.18 million barrels per day. That represents a daily decline of $45,715,600 (218,000,000 X 20.97).

However, Nigeria is not producing 2.18 million barrels per day going by OPEC report for December and January. Nigeria’s oil production stood at 1.57 million barrels per day in December and 1.77 mbpd in January, according to an independent oil tracking agency, CEIC. Another report from Bloomberg painted a sad picture of the country’s current position, the report stated that 70 percent of the nation’s April sales have no buyer despite huge discount being offered. The story is not different for Angola and other oil-producing economies. The difference, they have alternatives and effective diversification plans.

In February, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the nation’s growth projection for the year from 2.1 percent to 2 percent, citing slow economic recovery amid weak revenue to debt profile. In the same month, Standard and Poor lowered the nation’s credit rating from stable to negative, again citing weak revenue, falling oil price and limited space for stimulus.

The nation’s foreign exchange reserves declined from $45 billion recorded in June 2019 to $36.2 billion in March 2020 as oil price continues to decline so do the nation’s reserves which the main source of funds is crude oil. High importation, capital flight, and weak capital importation are some of the challenges hurting Nigeria’s liquidity.

Inflation rate rose to 12.13 percent in January, eroding consumer spending, retail sales and household income despite a high unemployment rate of 23.1 percent or 20.9 million unemployed people. With the foreign reserves fast declining, credit agencies downgrading the nation’s credit rating and global growth projected to slow down in 2020, the nation would struggle to sell its Eurobond scheduled for September as it did in 2018 when it sold $2.86 billion at a period when crude oil was averaging $70 per barrel.

Even if Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, Minister of Finance, led committee reviewed down the $57 oil benchmark for the year, it still would not address the nation’s low oil production in recent months, rising capital flight, weak capital importation, unclear policy path discouraging investors and the rising cost of servicing debt.

Nigeria spent N2.1 trillion or 22.24 percent of the 2020 budget servicing debt in 2019, that financial obligation continues in 2020 and could surge in subsequent years after the Senate approved an additional $22.7 billion loan for President Muhammadu Buhari.

Despite the aggressive economic diversification approach built around low-interest rates anchor borrowers’ loan of President Muhammadu Buhari administration, Nigerians still crave visible results after years of spending. New job creation remains low with businesses shutting down operations, especially local companies.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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