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Oil Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Conflict

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Qasem Soleimani
  • Oil Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Conflict

Global oil prices surged to six month high following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian Minister of Defence, by the United States of America on Friday in Iraq.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is measured, rose from $61 per barrel recorded in June to $69.47 on Monday during the Asian trading session, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed from $52.36 per barrel to $63.71.

This was after Trump-led administration killed Soleimani, a Major General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran, at Baghdad International Airport. The action has led to unrest and increased global economic uncertainty as global investors struggle to curb risk exposure.

Gold and other safe-haven assets surged to record high amid the rise in global demand for haven assets with gold gaining 3.41 percent on Monday alone.

Global risk remained high as President Trump told parliament on Saturday that Iran could retaliate within weeks after Iran stated it has identified 35 US assets for possible reprisal.  In return, President Trump responded that the US has marked 52 Iranian assets, including those of cultural significance to the embattled nation.

However, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat representative has called President Trump a monster for threatening to hit cultural sites with visitors, usually women and kids.

“Threatening to target and kill innocent families, women and children – which is what you’re doing by targeting cultural sites – does not make you a ‘tough guy.’ It does not make you ‘strategic.’ It makes you a monster,” Ocasio-Cortez stated.

General Gholamali Abuhamzeh, who was quoted by Tasnim media on Friday, said Iran will punish Americans within the Islamic Republic.

“The Strait of Hormuz is a vital point for the West and a large number of American destroyers and warships cross there. … Vital American targets in the region have been identified by Iran since long time ago. … Some 35 U.S. targets in the region as well as Tel Aviv are within our reach,” Abuhamzeh was quoted as saying.

Unrest in the Middle East will hurt global supply and boost oil prices as demand is expected to outweigh supply. Oil-producing nations like Nigeria, Angola, etc are to experience improved oil revenue and robust foreign reserves in the near-term.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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IMF Approves Reforms to Support Low-Income Countries From Shocks

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a set of reforms that will help it support Low-Income Countries (LICs) from shocks over the long term.

The changes to the lender’s concessional lending facilities were contained in a statement by the IMF on Monday.

The US-based lender said these reforms are detailed in the staff paper “2024 Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) Facilities and Financing—Reform Proposals.”

The fund said it significantly scaled up support to its low-income members in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent major shocks.

“The annual lending commitments have risen to an average of SDR 5.5 billion since 2020, compared with about SDR 1.2 billion during the preceding decade,” the statement said.

“Outstanding PRGT credit has tripled since the pandemic’s onset, while funding costs at the SDR interest rate have risen sharply. As a result, the PRGT faces an acute funding shortfall, with its self-sustained lending capacity projected to decline, absent reforms, to about SDR 1 billion a year by 2027, well below expected demand.”

The reforms approved by the IMF’s Executive Board aim at maintaining adequate financial support to low-income countries while restoring the self-sustainability of the PRGT.

“The Executive Board today endorsed a long-term annual lending envelope of SDR 2.7 billion ($3.6 billion) and approved a package of policy reforms and resource mobilization to support that lending capacity.

“The envelope, which is more than twice the pre-pandemic capacity, is calibrated to ensure that the Fund can use its limited concessional resources to continue providing vital balance of payment support to LICs, while supporting strong economic policies and catalyzing fresh financing from other sources.

“The Review includes policy changes that reflect the increasing economic heterogeneity among LICs. A new tiered interest rate mechanism will enhance the targeting of scarce PRGT resources to the poorest LICs, which will continue to benefit from interest-free lending, while better-off LICs will be charged a modest, and still concessional, interest rate,” the statement said.

After a successful bilateral fundraising, and in the context of a robust financial outlook for the Fund, the membership reached consensus on a framework to deploy IMF internal resources to facilitate the generation of PRGT subsidy resources.

Specifically, the fund said SDR 5.9 billion (about $ 8 billion), in 2025 present value terms, is expected to be generated through a framework to distribute GRA net income and/or reserves over the next five years.

This is in addition to bilateral subsidy contributions, the subsidy savings from the new interest rate mechanism, and financing from a proposed further five-year suspension of PRGT administrative expenses reimbursement to the GRA.

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Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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