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Domestic Gas Market in Focus as Shortage Lingers

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  • Domestic Gas Market in Focus as Shortage Lingers

Nigeria is home to the largest natural gas reserves in Africa and the ninth largest in the world but it has continued to suffer supply shortage over the years.

According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, the country has around 202 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves plus about 600 Tcf unproven gas reserves.

However, despite having the largest gas reserves in Africa, only about 25 per cent of the reserves is being produced or is under development today.

Out of the total gas supply of 2.83 trillion standard cubic feet last year, only 430.2 billion scf was commercialised for the domestic market while 1.23 trillion scf was exported, according to the NNPC.

The NNPC data showed that re-injection, fuel gas and flaring accounted for a total of 1.17 trillion scf.

Oil and gas firms operating in the country flared a total of 282.08 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas in 2018, compared to 287.59 billion scf in 2017.

The Chief Operating Officer, Upstream, NNPC, Mr Bello Rabiu, at the Nigeria Oil and Gas Opportunity Fair in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State last week, stressed the need to concentrate more on the huge gas resources in the country to stimulate economic development.

He said, “Nigeria’s average daily gas production is about 8.4 billion standard cubic feet per day. Only 18 per cent (1.5 billion scf pd) of the production is consumed in the domestic market; 43 per cent is exported as Liquefied Natural Gas, 32 per cent is re-injected for enhanced oil recovery and other operational uses like fuel gas while seven per cent of total gas production is currently being flared.”

He said to encourage the existing players in the industry, particularly the traditional joint venture partners, the NNPC undertook to settle all outstanding cash call arrears, amounting to $5bn.

Rabiu said the settlement of the cash call arrears had restored confidence in the industry, adding, “In the last three years, we have been very active in the investment market, securing about $3.7bn in new investment.”

Royal Dutch Shell, in its Nigeria Briefing Notes, said unlocking Nigeria’s natural gas potential would require partnerships between the Nigerian government and oil and gas companies “that have the ability to innovate, capacity to deliver major projects, and willingness to take on long-term commitments.”

According to the oil major, there are several challenges that need to be overcome in order to successfully develop growth projects for the domestic gas market.

It noted that a new funding regime for joint venture oil and gas operations in Nigeria had been operationalised, which was expected to resolve the NNPC’s funding constraints in the Shell Petroleum Development Company JV.

“This will increase gas production by optimising existing operations as well as accelerating the completion of new gas development projects,” it added.

According to Shell, a second challenge is to clear the backlog of deliveries of both power and gas to customers that have not been paid for.

It said, “Without the payment of outstanding gas and power invoice arrears, and securitisation of current and future revenues, operators are reluctant to commit additional investments to grow domestic gas supply.

“Another challenge deals with the need to attract investment to further develop infrastructure along the gas value chain, for example, to create a more robust pipeline network to improve reliability and security of supply.”

The oil major also said ensuring a conducive business environment was essential to attracting investments and running reliable operations.

It said, “This includes a respect for the sanctity of existing contracts, predictable regulatory, commercial and legal framework across the country.

“Overcoming security challenges in the Niger Delta that has experienced an increased risk to personnel and property as well as the disruption to operations is also very important.”

The Federal Government has said the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme is expected to unlock and supply 600,000 metric tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas to about six million homes in Nigeria.

President Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated the NGFCP in October 2016 and the programme is aimed at reducing gas flaring by harnessing flare gas to stimulate economic growth, drive investments and provide jobs in the Niger Delta through the utilisation of widely available innovative technologies.

The NGFCP was designed as the strategy to implement the policy objectives of the government for the elimination of gas flares from Nigeria’s oil and gas fields in the near term of between two and three years, with potentially enormous multiplier and development outcomes for Nigeria.

In December 2017, the Federal Government announced that it had commenced the verification of gas flare sites across the country and that it had discovered that there were at least 178 sites where gas was flared, as opposed to 140 sites listed in the past.

The Programme Manager, NGFCP, FMPR, Justice Derefaka, said the programme would attract $3.5bn worth of investments into the country.

He said, “It has been proven that global energy demand will nearly double by 2050. Most of the increase will come from the world’s emerging economies as a result of population growth and improved standards of living.

“The NGFCP will play an important role in meeting this energy challenge by harnessing Nigeria’s flare gas for sustainable value and wealth creation.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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