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Big Banks Adopt Cautious Lending on Sluggish Economy

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Global Banking - Investors King
  • Big Banks Adopt Cautious Lending on Sluggish Economy

Two of Nigeria’s biggest banks gave out smaller amount of loans in 2018, compared to the previous year as financial institutions remained cautious in creating risk assets, considering the sluggish economic activities in the country.

Specifically, two of the tier 1 banks – Zenith Bank Plc and Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (GTBank) – that have so far released their full year 2018 results, recorded lower loan growth last year, compared with 2017.

For instance, while Zenith Bank Plc saw its loans and advancements fell from N1.823 trillion in 2018, as against the N2.1 trillion posted in 2017, GTBank’s loan book dipped by 12.9 per cent, from N1.449 trillion in 2017, to N1.262 trillion in 2018.

The Nigerian economy which has been performing sub-optimally recorded slim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.93 per cent in 2018, with businesses facing a myriad of domestic challenges. Some of the major constraints businesses faced include insecurity, high interest rate, unstable power and poor infrastructure.

To the Head of Research and Strategy at FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, Mr. Ayodele Akinwunmi, credit creation would remain low in a fragile economy.

He explained: “Banks lend to businesses with the view that the money would be repaid to enable the banks pay their depositors and reward their shareholders. So, if the economy is not expanding, banks would not be encouraged to lend.

“If economic activities are not expanding, the way we have seen in the last few months, there would not be activities to lend money to.

“Most of the international oil companies don’t borrow from Nigeria for long-term projects because we don’t have the capacity.

“For me, we expect that in 2019, loan would grow, because our projection for GDP growth rate in 2019 is higher than what we had last year. Our forecast for GDP growth for this year is 2.5 per cent.

“Our economy is not growing at the level that it should be growing. So, the banks are being careful, because in a fragile economy, credit creation would remain low.”

Also, the President, Risk Management Association of Nigeria, Mr. Magnus Nnoka, pointed out that banks were set up to facilitate intermediation, hence they need to lend in order to make returns to investors.

He said: “I think the challenge most banks face in lending is signing on quality credit or borrowers’ ability in meeting the risk acceptance criteria for accessing loans.

“This is not also to rule out the challenges borrowers face in meeting certain lending conditions and of course relative cost of financing, which can still be considered high particularly when you look at some economic sectors.

“I, therefore, think that some of the measures to enhance lending will require improving quality of the obligors. Among issues to be addressed are encouraging strong corporate governance, transparent financial reporting on the part of borrowers as well as strengthening regulatory and judicial system for loan disputes settlement.

“A culture of credit discipline, information asymmetry and self-disclosure are critical elements of any environment that seek to enhance credit creation activities.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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