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Uncertain Fiscal Policies: FDI Inflow To Remain Low

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Nigeria investment
  • Uncertain Fiscal Policies: FDI Inflow To Remain Low

Since Nigeria ordered International Oil Companies (IOC) to pay US$20 billion in back taxes last month, analysts home and abroad have questioned the Federal Government approach to boosting its fiscal revenue.

To some, the move will scare Foreign Direct Investors interested in the Nigerian economy after what happened to MTN Nigeria in 2018 when the Federal Government ordered the telecoms company to pay $2 billion in taxes and two weeks later, the Central Bank of Nigeria directed the same company to refund $8.1 billion in ‘illegal repatriation.’

Months later, MTN Nigeria was cleared of wrongdoing but not the fall in its share price and the uncertainty surrounding its future financial projections.

The company on Thursday announced its expected earnings per share for 2018, surprising it was below experts’ projections by almost 50 per cent. This didn’t go well with investors that subsequently reduced their holdings ahead of March 7, the scheduled date for the audited financial report. MTN shares dipped by 4.9 per cent on Friday.

Rob Shuter, MTN Group President and CEO, attributed the development to the challenges faced in Nigeria in 2018, its largest market.

While experts agreed that the Federal Government must increase tax revenue through increased participation of foreign and local investors in the country, “eliminating fiscal uncertainties and generally improving the ease of doing business in Nigeria is key,” expert at Anderson Tax said.

“It is essential that the government does not place undue reliance on the imposition of multiple taxes and levies on companies engaged in oil and gas activities, as the principal way of boosting its internally generated revenues,” Tolulope Adebowale of Anderson Tax said in its publication.

In recent years, Foreign Direct Investment has been falling year after year, when compared with the performance from previous years. In 2014, Nigeria earned $4.7 billion from FDI, that number quickly dropped to $3.1 billion in 2015. In 2016, the number surged to $4.4 billion but later declined by $900 million to $3.5 billion in 2017. The number has since dropped to $2.2 billion in 2018, the lowest in 13 years.

According to the CBN, Foreign Portfolio Investment accounted for over 70 per cent of the total foreign inflow in 2018, while Foreign Direct Investment accounted for less than 30 per cent.

Experts believed the uncertainties surrounding fiscal policies may further scare the few foreign investors interested in the economy in 2019 going by what is happening since the current administration decided to up tax revenue.

Analysts at Investors King Ltd said fixed income market will continue to attract investment since Federal Reserve won’t be raising interest rates any time soon and the Euro-area is experiencing economic slowdown even at zero interest rates. The focus would be on emerging economies.

The analysts expect FDI to remain weak as they do not anticipate a significant change in policies but agreed the CBN would have to maintain current monetary policy rate to sustain inflow.

“The economy was and is not really viable to encourage foreign investors to invest for a long term,” says Paul Aluko, a Research Analyst at MBC Securities Limited, Lagos.

Experts advised the Federal Government to create a business-friendly environment where foreign investors are not scared of sudden change in fiscal policies or business climate.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Investment

Nigeria Offers 12 Oil Blocks and 5 Deep Offshore Assets to Global Investors

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Oil

Nigeria has unveiled plans to offer 12 oil blocks and 5 deep offshore assets to global investors.

The announcement was made during the ongoing 2024 Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, United States, where Nigerian officials presented the country’s vast hydrocarbon potential to an international audience of industry stakeholders.

Addressing participants at the African Oil Industry Opportunities Session, a side event at the OTC, Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission, outlined Nigeria’s significant reserves and emphasized the strategic importance of leveraging these resources for economic development.

With over 37.5 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate reserves, as well as 209.26 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, Nigeria stands as a major player in Africa’s energy landscape.

Komolafe highlighted the government’s commitment to conducting a transparent and competitive bidding process, in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and applicable regulations.

The 2024 Licensing Round, he noted, marks a significant milestone in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon development initiative, introducing 12 carefully selected blocks spanning diverse geological formations, from onshore basins to deep offshore territories.

Each block has been identified for its potential to enhance Nigeria’s reserves and stimulate economic growth, offering opportunities for investors to participate in the country’s oil and gas industry.

The bidding process, which commenced on April 29, 2024, is structured to ensure fairness, competitiveness, and transparency, with guidelines issued to guide prospective bidders.

In addition to the 12 blocks, Nigeria will also conclude the sale of seven deep offshore blocks from the 2022 Mini-Bid Round Exercise, covering approximately 6,700 km2 in water depths ranging from 1,150m to 3,100m.

This comprehensive offering underscores Nigeria’s commitment to maximizing the potential of its petroleum resources and attracting strategic investments to drive sectoral growth.

The bidding round, scheduled to conclude by January 2025, presents a significant opportunity for investors and companies to participate in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

The inclusion of both new greenfield blocks and assets from previous bid rounds reflects the government’s dedication to fostering innovation, technological exchange, and capacity building within the industry.

With criteria emphasizing technical competence, financial capacity, and viability, the 2024 licensing round aims to be conducted in a fair, competitive, and non-discriminatory manner, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

As Nigeria positions itself as a prime destination for oil and gas investment, stakeholders are optimistic about the potential for sustainable growth and development in the sector.

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Investment

Microsoft to Invest $2.2 Billion in Malaysia’s Digital Infrastructure

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Microsoft - Investors King

Microsoft Corporation has announced plans to inject $2.2 billion into Malaysia’s digital infrastructure over the next four years.

This investment shows the company’s determination to harness the potential of Southeast Asia’s burgeoning technology market.

During his visit to Kuala Lumpur, Microsoft’s Chief Executive Officer, Satya Nadella, revealed the company’s ambitious agenda, which encompasses the construction of essential infrastructure to support its cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) services.

Nadella also outlined plans to provide AI training to 200,000 individuals in Malaysia and collaborate with the government to enhance the nation’s cybersecurity capabilities.

The move comes amidst intensified competition among tech giants, including Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., to gain a foothold in Southeast Asia’s rapidly digitizing landscape.

With a population exceeding 650 million people, the region presents a lucrative market for tech companies seeking to expand their operations beyond traditional strongholds like China.

“We are committed to supporting Malaysia’s AI transformation and ensure it benefits all Malaysians,” stated Nadella.

During his visit, Nadella met Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and discussed the importance of collaboration between the public and private sectors in driving digital innovation.

Microsoft’s investment not only serves to fortify Malaysia’s technological infrastructure but also aligns with the company’s broader strategy to assert its presence in the Asian market.

Nadella has previously pledged a substantial sum of $7 billion to bolster Microsoft’s services across the region, emphasizing the pivotal role of AI as a catalyst for growth and urging countries to ramp up investment in the technology.

In Malaysia, the southern region of Johor Bahru, linked to Singapore by a causeway, is emerging as a key hub for AI data centers.

The partnership between Nvidia Corp. and local utility YTL Power International Bhd. to establish a $4.3 billion AI data center park in the area underscores the region’s growing significance in the realm of digital infrastructure.

While AI adoption in Southeast Asia is still in its nascent stages, experts predict significant economic benefits with the potential to add approximately $1 trillion to the region’s economy by 2030.

Malaysia is poised to capture a substantial portion of this growth with estimates suggesting a potential windfall of around $115 billion for the country.

Microsoft’s commitment extends beyond Malaysia, as the company announced similar investments during Nadella’s regional tour.

In Indonesia, Microsoft unveiled a $1.7 billion investment plan, while an undisclosed amount was pledged for initiatives in Thailand. Notably, Microsoft intends to invest approximately $1 billion in a new data center in Thailand, as reported by the Bangkok Post.

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Treasury Bills

Investors Flock to Nigerian Treasury Bills, Subscriptions Soar to N23.75 Trillion

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FG Borrows

Nigeria’s Treasury Bills market has witnessed an unprecedented surge in investor interest with subscriptions soaring to N23.75 trillion in the first four months of 2024.

This increase represents a significant 292% Year-on-Year growth from N6.06 trillion recorded in the same period in 2023.

Treasury Bills, short-term government debt instruments issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have become increasingly attractive to both local and foreign investors.

The double-digit interest rates offered on NTBs have lured investors seeking refuge from the uncertainties of the global economic landscape.

The surge in subscriptions comes amidst Nigeria’s efforts to bridge its budget deficit and manage monetary challenges amidst a scarcity of foreign exchange and double-digit inflation rates.

Investors’ confidence in the CBN’s ability to navigate these challenges has been bolstered by robust subscription rates, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s fiscal stability.

The 2024 Budget of ‘Renewed Hope’, proposed by President Bola Tinubu, outlines a total expenditure of N27.5 trillion, with a deficit of N9.18 trillion.

The high demand for NTBs underscores investors’ confidence in the government’s fiscal policies and its commitment to economic reform.

As interest rates on NTBs have risen in response to inflationary pressures, the CBN has capitalized on this demand by auctioning larger volumes of NTBs.

The move aims to address liquidity in the financial system while attracting foreign investors seeking higher yields.

Analysts view the surge in NTBs subscriptions as a testament to investors’ confidence in the Nigerian government and its reforms.

The massive oversubscription signals significant system liquidity and reflects the attractiveness of NTBs as a safe investment option amidst economic uncertainties.

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