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Economic Implications of Joe Biden’s Presidency on Nigeria, Other Emerging Economies

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Joe Biden Economic Impliccations on Nigeria

What Nigeria and Other Emerging Economies Should Expect From Joe Biden’s Presidency

As Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the former Vice President and President-elect of the United States of America, prepares to take over the world’s largest economy from President Trump on January 20, 2021, Investors King looks into what Nigeria and other emerging economies should expect following four years of unnecessary China-US trade war, US-Iran attacks, US-North Korea nuclear war declaration and back and forth with Russia on US election meddling.

Since Donald Trump became the President of the United States on January 20, 2016, he has worked hard to up global risk, increase economic uncertainties and ensure global economy does not expand through China trade war and the disapproval of a deal that took six world powers 12 years to sign with Iran. Like those were not enough, Donald Trump immediately started threatening a fellow psycho, Kim Jong-un of North Korea, with a bigger nuclear button, creating an intense and extremely challenging business environment in recent times.

The record-increase in global economic uncertainties and risks led to capital outflow from emerging economies as investors became wary of impending doom that could erode their capital, especially knowing that emerging economies do not have the structure to protect investment funds once catastrophe struck.

In the first quarter of 2017, just about a year in the office, Nigeria’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plunged by $640.61 million or 41.36 percent from $1.55 billion posted in the final quarter of 2016. This decline continues throughout the year despite the Central Bank of Nigeria introducing Investors and Exporters Forex Window to bridge the gap between exchange rates offered by the apex bank, bureau de change operators and on the black market.

According to a United Nations report, Nigeria’s FDI declined by 43 percent in 2018 to $2 billion, partly because of MTN tax issues with the Federal Government and Trump’s ‘shithole’ comment that demarketed Nigerian assets and discouraged potential investors from looking the Nigerian way in the same year that foreign investment inflow into sub-Saharan Africa rose by 13 percent to $32 billion.

Donald Trump’s poor attitude towards Africa was the main reason African nations increased their Chinese loans and other financial supports that has now distanced the continent from the world’s largest economy. One of the jobs of Joe Biden would be to prove the United States’ commitment to the continent or watch American position in Africa further relegated.

Likely Implications of Joe Biden Presidency on Nigeria and Emerging Nations

As widely expected, Joe Biden’s calm personality and diplomatic nature could help bridge the division created in the upper house — control by the Republicans — and unite US lawmakers for one specific purpose, national building.

Investors King is anticipating that this unity, coupled with the fact that Democrats control the lower house would help speed up the approval of almost $2 trillion stimulus package as the world’s largest economy looks to revive businesses battered by COVID-19 and protect jobs while simultaneously creating new ones.

On the global front, Joe Biden would likely seek an amicable trade agreement with the second-largest economy, China and look to ease global tension and support the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, United Nations and other global organisations on growth and at curbing or securing COVID-19 cure.

With global tension and uncertainties predicted to subside with the exit of Donald Trump, global investors will start looking into emerging markets with the ability to grow over two percent and with lesser risk. And not just focus on the United States as a safe haven to protect their funds.

Charles Robertson, a Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital (RenCap), said Blackrock’s fixed income section that manages over $2.6 trillion in assets have said they will invest more in emerging economies. To put this in perspective, Africa’s total GDP is $2 trillion, therefore, Blackrock alone could be dumping over $100 billion in fixed income on the continent next year.

Robertson said “The stock of Africa’s Eurobonds only topped $100 billion in 2018, and even if it is only Blackrock’s actively managed part of the business more like $2 trillion in all asset classes (perhaps $700 billion in fixed income), that starts to shift to Emerging Markets this could be very helpful.

“Our base case is that Foreign Direct Investment will stop being a net positive for the US due to Trump’s defeat, and portfolio flows will also go to EM, and together, these will drive the $ gradually weaker in coming years,” he said.

For Nigeria, this will means more forex inflow to augment weak foreign revenue generation amid low oil prices and weak global demand. This will further expand Nigeria’s economic productivity given its import-dependent nature and lack of alternative foreign revenue generation.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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