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Debts Exceed Statutory Revenues in 32 States, Says FRC

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Internal revenue
  • Debts Exceed Statutory Revenues in 32 States, Says FRC

The consolidated debts of 32 states of the federation exceeded their gross statutory revenues in 2017, a report of the Fiscal Responsibility Commission has shown.

As of December 2017, the 36 states of the federation had total public debts of N4,495,027,062,300.37 while they had gross statutory revenues totalling N2,098,615,470,240.44 and net revenues totalling N1,739,290,877,423.07.

This means that collectively, the debts of the 36 state governments exceeded their statutory revenues for the whole year by N2, 396,411,592,060 or by 53.31 per cent.

It also means that the states spent a total of N359, 324,592,817.3 or 17.12 per cent of their statutory revenues to service their debts within the one year period.

According to analyses presented by FRC, all the states of the federation except Anambra, Katsina, Sokoto and Yobe had debts to statutory revenues exceeding 100 per cent.

The report obtained by our correspondent in Abuja on Wednesday showed that of all the states of the federation, Osun State had the highest debt burden going by its debt-to-gross revenue ratio.

The report revealed that Osun had a debt to gross revenue ratio of 425.6 per cent. The situation became more precarious as the state enjoyed a debt-to-net revenue ratio of 1,607.79 per cent.

Debt to net revenue ratio measures how much the state is left with after debt servicing charges are deducted from the statutory revenue of a state.

The statutory revenue is what a state gets from the federation account on a monthly basis. It constitutes the bulk of a state’s income on a monthly basis as most states are known to make only marginal revenues from Internally Generated Revenue sources.

Osun had a total public debt of N167, 801,453,519.46. Its gross statutory revenue amounted to N39, 427,491,639.62 while it had net statutory revenue of N10, 436,789.071.78.

Lagos had a public debt of N811, 938,493,497.41; gross statutory revenue of N123, 421,828,999.27 and net revenue of N89,694,754,919.47 while Cross River had a public debt of N177,032,983,556.52; a gross statutory revenue of N41,963,126,084.71 and a net statutory revenue of N23,451,782,733.

Ekiti had a total public debt of N141,380,068,783.48, gross statutory revenue of N37,754,966,137.46 and net statutory revenue of N25,633,665,721.06 while Ogun had a public debt of N139,409,946,526.63, gross statutory revenue of N40,708,133,204.84 and a net statutory revenue of N26,185,030,796.11.

The report said, “Osun State recorded the highest debt-to-net statutory revenue with 1,607.79 per cent. The main reason for this high debt-to-net statutory revenue percentage can be explained by the deduction of N28,990,702,567.84 at source from its Gross Statutory Revenue of N39,427,491,639.62.

“This can be translated to mean that out of every N100 due to Osun State as Gross Domestic Revenue, only about N27 actually went to the coffers of the state government, thereby accounting for the abnormally high 1,607.79 Debt-to-Net Statutory Revenue.

“Lagos State has the next highest Debt-to-Net Statutory Revenue of 905.22 per cent followed by Cross River State with 754.88 per cent. Ekiti State accounted for the fourth highest Debt-to-Net Statutory Revenue percentage of 551.54 per cent while Ogun, Plateau and Oyo states followed with 532.4 per cent, 444.13 per cent and 354.68 per cent respectively.

“On the other hand, Anambra State had the least Debt-to-Net Statutory Revenue of 69.32 per cent followed by Yobe with 89.93 per cent. Sokoto, Jigawa and Katsina states followed with 93.65 per cent, 96.15 per cent and 111.96 per cent respectively.”

With a total public debt of N28, 905,189,191.27, Anambra had gross statutory revenue of N43, 089,159,428.87. This translates to debt to gross statutory revenue of 67.08 per cent. With net revenue of N41, 338,238,321.08, the state had a debt to net revenue of 69.92 per cent.

Regarding the debt sustainability of the states, the Fiscal Responsibility Commission said that since the Gross Domestic Product of each state had not been figured out, the debt sustainability could not be determined.

Nonetheless, it added that the level of borrowing by the states could be gauged by the regulation of the Debt Management Office that the debt status of each state at any particular time should not exceed 50 per cent of its statutory revenue in the preceding 12 months.

If this rule is applied, even Anambra State with the least debt to revenue ratio of 67.08 per cent can be said to have over-borrowed having exceeded the limit by 17.08 per cent.

The Fiscal Responsibility Commission said that states whose proportions of debt-to-revenue exceeded 50 per cent were assumed to have violated Section F (C) of DMO 2012 Debt Management Guidelines.

However, it added, it would be legally wrong to conclude that such states had over-borrowed as the overall debt limits for the governments had not been set.

Our correspondent reports that the Fiscal Responsibility Act vests on the President the power to set the borrowing limit for subnational governments in the country. No such limit has been set.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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