Connect with us

Economy

Afrinvest Forecasts 2.5% Economic Growth in 2019

Published

on

  • Afrinvest Forecasts 2.5% Economic Growth in 2019

AFRINVEST (West Africa) Limited has predicted an improved but sluggish growth rate of 2.5 per cent for the 2019 financial period.

The firm stated this in its report titled, On the Precipice, “The Nigerian economy and financial market/ 2018 review & 2019 outlook.”

Part of the report read, “In our ‘base case’ for 2019, we do not expect a marked turnaround in the economy. We estimate that growth will improve to 2.5 per cent from 1.9 per cent in 2018 based on the expectation of improved oil GDP and sustained expansion in the non-oil sector. This forecast implies that with the population growing at 2.6-3.0 per cent, Nigerians are projected to remain poorer on the average in 2019.”

It stated that it was optimistic that a strong festive season and better agriculture output could push Nigeria past the finish line.

“Our growth expectations in 2019 is somewhat linked to the outcome of the general elections,” it added.

While modelling three scenarios to capture different effects, it stated that the “base case assumes that President Muhammadu Buhari wins the election and there is policy continuity. The optimistic case is that regardless of the winner, the government implements reforms to attract investment; and the pessimistic case assumes that political risks intensify and lead to continued violence in the Middle-Belt, North-East and the Niger-Delta.”

While noting that 2018 was a year of two distinct paths for growth, it stated that overall, the pace of growth remained slow and uneven, coming below the long-term growth rate of six to seven per cent and the pre-recession level of 2.8 per cent.

It stated, “Real GDP growth came in at 1.9 per cent in Q1:2018, below our estimate, due to a poor performance in the service sector and a slower expansion in agriculture. In Q2:2018, growth further moderated to 1.5 per cent due to both a 5.0 per cent contraction in oil output and a slump in agriculture growth to 1.2 per cent – the lowest in more than a decade.

“This slowdown in agriculture output was due to the herder-farmer conflict in the middle-belt which led to the destruction of livestock and poor harvests of crops.”

Afrinvest added that the contraction in the oil sector in Q2:2018 was mainly due to a reduction in output by 160,000b/d to 1.8mb/d.

Elsewhere, growth was not broad-based as sectors such as trade and real estate remained weak due to fragile consumer spending, it added.

Meanwhile, it stated that manufacturing growth was soft and volatile.

The report noted that, “In Q3:2018, growth came in better at 1.8 per cent but this was slower than the 2.1 per cent we expected. Oil output contracted by 2.9 per cent and agriculture growth remained weak at 1.9 per cent in Q3:2018. This prompted a revision of our forecast of FY:2018 growth to 1.9 per cent from 2.1 per cent.”

To achieve this growth target, it said, it believed the economy would expand by at least 2.6 per cent in Q4:2018.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

Published

on

power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

Continue Reading

Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

Published

on

Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

Continue Reading

Economy

FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

Published

on

Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending