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Nigerians Fear Weaker Economy From Rising Inflation – CBN report

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • Nigerians Fear Weaker Economy From Rising Inflation – CBN report

Respondents in a survey carried out by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistics Department in the fourth quarter of 2018, showed that more Nigerians were sceptical of the country having a weaker economy from rising inflation.

The CBN said the Inflation Attitudes Survey was conducted between November 24 – December 7, 2018 from a sample size of 1,770 households, randomly selected from 207 enumeration areas across the country, with a response rate of 99.2 per cent.

The report stated, “Respondents were asked what would become of the Nigerian economy if prices started to rise faster than they do now. The survey result showed that 44 per cent of the respondents believed that the economy would end up weaker, 14.2 per cent stated that it would be stronger, 18.3 per cent of the respondents believed it would make a little difference, while 22.8 per cent did not know.”

According to the report, the responses opined considerable support for price stability, as majority (44 per cent) agreed that the economy will end up weaker.

It said the results were consistent with the notion that inflation constrained economic growth.

When asked how prices had changed over the past 12 months, respondents gave a median answer of 3.8 per cent.

Of the total respondents, 23.9 per cent thought prices had gone down or not changed, 53.7 per cent felt that prices had risen by at least three per cent, while 17 per cent felt that prices inched up by more than one per cent, but less than three per cent.

Those that had no idea were 5.3 per cent, according to the report.

It report read in part, “The median expectation of price changes over the next 12 months was that prices will inch up by 2.3 per cent. From the total responses, 48.2 per cent of the respondents expected prices to rise by at least three per cent over the next 12 months, 14.3 per cent expected prices to increase by more than one per cent, but less than three per cent.

“However, 30.9 per cent of the respondents were optimistic that prices over the next 12 months will either go down or remain the same.”

On interest rates, it stated that the percentage of respondent households that felt that interest rates had risen in the last 12 months declined by 0.7 points to 28.6 points in the current quarter when compared to 29.3 points attained in Q3, 2018.

On the other hand, nine per cent of respondents believed that interest rates had fallen, 16.8 per cent of the respondents were of the opinion that the rates stayed about the same in the last 12 months, while 45.6 per cent of the households had no idea.

The result revealed that more households had no idea on the direction of interest rate in the past 12 months. On the expected change in interest rates on bank loans and savings over the next 12 months, some respondents (23 per cent) were of the view that the rates would rise, while 17.4 per cent believed that the rates would fall.

However, more respondents (59.6 per cent) of the respondents either expected no change or had no idea.

Furthermore, respondents were asked whether it would be best for the Nigerian economy if interest rates increased or decreased. The results showed that 33 per cent indicated that it would be best for the Nigerian economy if interest rates fell, while 11.1 per cent opted for higher interest rates.

Those that thought that it would make no difference accounted for 12.7 per cent, while 40.2 per cent had no idea.

The responses revealed that while many of the respondents favoured lower interest rates for the Nigerian economy, many more had no idea whether it should rise or fall.

On interest rate-inflation nexus, the report showed that 35.2 per cent thought a rise in interest rates would make prices in the street rise slowly in the short term, as against 11.5 per cent that disagreed.

In the medium term, 33.6 per cent agreed that a rise in interest rates would make prices in the street rise slowly, 12.8 per cent disagreed.

Respondents were asked to choose between raising interest rates in order to keep inflation down and keeping interest rates down to allow prices to rise.

Responding, 21.5 per cent preferred interest rates to rise in order to keep inflation down compared to 25.4 per cent that said they would prefer prices to rise faster, while 50.9 per cent had no idea.

“These responses suggest that given a trade-off, more of the respondents will prefer higher interest rates to higher inflation, which is suggestive of the respondent households’ support for the bank’s price stability objective,” the report added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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