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Forex Weekly Outlook December 10-14

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook December 10-14

Global foreign exchange market remained highly volatile despite temporary trade agreement reached by the U.S. and China. The slowing growth in China, the world’s second largest economy, and the unexpected drop in the number of jobs created in the U.S. in November following the Federal Reserve comment on possible slow down in rates hike in 2019 have weakened market confidence and increased global uncertainty going into the new year.

The U.S. stocks dropped $1 trillion in value last week as investors seem to be abandoning the high flying American stocks for emerging assets amid inverted yield curve that signals possible recession in 2019/2020.

Emerging markets, however, may not enjoy huge inflow of capital as previously projected because of the change in the European Central Bank’s monetary policy and current China’s economic position. ECB announced it will stop buying bond in January 2019 and commence normalization, which might involve rate hike. Therefore, most funds are likely to go to the Euro-zone (developed economy) with lesser risk.

This, may offer some form of support for the Euro currency in 2019 despite Brexit uncertainty, Italy debt crisis and slowing global growth.

Still, it all depends on the outcome of the Brexit vote on Tuesday in the United Kingdom, where MPs will vote to either approve and disapprove Prime Minister Theresa May’s draft Brexit deal.

In Canada, crude oil production will drop by 325,000 barrels per day starting from January 2019 as the oil-producing nation plans to reduce the gap between the price of U.S. WTI crude and the Canadian crude that rose to almost 50 at a point.

Experts believe the move will slow economic growth to 1.8 percent from the 2 percent predicted for 2019 as revenue generated from sales of crude oil is expected to drop in billions, partly due to falling oil prices and reduce production.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to cut 1.2 million barrels per day against the 1 million widely expected by the market to artificially boost price despite President Trump saying otherwise.

Giving the aforementioned reasons, USDJPY, NZDJPY, AUDUSD, and CADJPY top my list this week.

USDJPY

The growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. assets following Federal Reserve’s rate comment, fewer than expected job creation in November and inverted yield curve is weighing on the U.S. dollar’s attractiveness, forcing investors to jump on haven currency, the Japanese Yen.

The USDJPY closed below the ascending channel for the first time in nine months last week to trade at 112.68 as shown above. Indicating an unusual selling pressure, especially after Meng Wanzhou, Huawei CFO was arrested in Canada on the order of U.S, a move China kicked against and insisted there will be consequences.

Therefore, a sustained break below the 113.03 resistance level should pressure price towards the 111.82 supports and vice versa.

NZDJPY

New Zealand dollar is a commodity-dependent currency that reflects China’s economic position. Since Wanzhou was picked up on Friday and Chinese inflation number disappointed after falling to 2.2 percent in November, Kiwi attractiveness drop against the Yen.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 10-14The pair was aided out of the 16 months descending channel by the temporary truce reached two weeks ago, however, with the new economic numbers pointing to possible slow down in Chinese economy and weak commodity outlook. The pair may fail to sustain its nearly two weeks bullish run above the descending channel.

This week, as long as price remained below the 77.71 resistance level breached for the first time in 6 months two weeks ago. I will look to sell this pair for 75.55 supports in line with previous analysis. However, 76.85 support stand in the way.

AUDUSD

Australian currency has been battered by weaker than expected economic growth in the third quarter, the economy expanded at a rate of 0.3 percent and 2.8 percent year on year, lower than the 0.6 percent and 3.5 percent expected, respectively. Also, consumer spending continued to drop amid weak wage growth and rising household debt. Meaning, the Reserve Bank of Australia may be forced to lower rate from the current 1.5 percent in 2019 to stimulate growth despite record low unemployment rate.

Like New Zealand, China is Australia’s largest trading partner, therefore, the Australian economy is indirectly impacted by the Chinese economy. Hence, all the factors mentioned above will equally weigh on the Aussie dollar.

The AUDUSD dropped about 200 pips last week after the disappointing GDP report to close at 0.7198. Since January 2018, the pair has dropped a total of 936 pips and broke out of the descending channel ahead of the US and China trade agreement five weeks ago.

Therefore, this is likely a temporary breakout given the aforementioned reasons. This week, as long as price remained below the 0.7314 resistance I am bearish on AUDUSD.

CADJPY

Despite better than expected unemployment rate of 5.6 percent and over 94,000 jobs that were created in Canada in November, the Canadian currency dropped against it counterparts to close lower last week.

The Bank of Canada held interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent as expected but warned the economy could be heading for a slowdown in the final quarter of the year.

This was after the oil-producing nation announced it would cut production by 325,000 or 8.7 percent in January to aid price, a move believed by most experts would hurt economic productivity next year as national revenue is expected to drop.

Also, the economy grew at 2 percent rate in the third quarter, down from 2.9 percent recorded in the second quarter. Indicating possible slowing growth.

Forex Weekly Outlook December 10-14Technically, the pair closed outside the ascending channel for the first time in nine months to validate downward pressure. Therefore, because of the renewed interest in haven currency, Yen, especially in a week of Brexit vote. Investors are likely to jump on haven currency to curb risk exposure.

Hence, I am bearish on CADJPY and will look to sell below the ascending channel for 82.41 support.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Dollar to Naira Today Monday, 15 August 2022

Dollar to Naira exchange rate stood at N670 on Monday at the parallel market as scarcity remained an issue amid rising demand

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NAIRA - Investors King

Dollar to naira today – Dollar to Naira exchange rate stood at N670 on Monday at the parallel market popularly known as the black market as scarcity remained an issue amid rising demand.

The Naira exchange rate to U.S. Dollar improved from N700 recorded last week to N670 today, Monday 15th August 2022. Dollar to Naira today rate is over 50 percent higher than the official exchange rate of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Dollar to Naira Today Black Market

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today
Buying Rate 650
Selling Rate
670

Several experts have attributed the decline to a series of factors peculiar to the Nigerian economy. According to Mr. Jimi Ogbobine, Head of Consulting at Agusto Consulting, the wide exchange rate is as a result of supply challenges in the foreign exchange market.

He explained that this happened whenever demand across key exchange sections is higher than forex supply.

“The recent jump we are seeing is basically a result of a supply crisis in the forex market. The foundation of all of these is demand versus supply and when demand outweighs supply you will see this kind of currency depreciation,” he stated.

“If the central bank was able to meet forex demand, then we will not see this kind of price distortion. On one end, Nigeria is not able to meet forex supply and on the other end we are trying to restrict and constrict demand which means that quite a number of legitimate requests for forex are now being diverted to the parallel market.

“So, while the official market seems relatively calm, the reality of the supply shortage is playing out in the parallel market where more legitimate request for forex is being diverted to because the official market is not able to demand.”

Dollar to Naira Today Official Market

At the Investors and Exporters (I&E) forex window, the Nigerian Naira opened on at N429.67 against the United States Dollar and closed at N429.62 on Friday.

Forex trader at the window transacted $46.31 million forex value on Friday.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adoped the I&E forex window as its official forex window to converge the nation’s exchange rates in accordance with the World Bank demand.

Dollar to Naira Today CBN Rates

As of Friday, the CBN bought the U.S. Dollar at N418.89 and sold the American currency at a difference of N1 for N419.89 per U.S. Dollar.

The Pounds Sterling was purchased at N508.7419 per unit and sold at N506.9564. The Euro common currency was exchanged as shown below.

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Arresting BDCs Will Worsen the Economy – Lemo

Tunde Lemo has said arresting Bureau De Change Operators (BDcs) suspected to be hoarding U.S. dollars will only worsen the nation’s economic position.

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BDC Operators - Investors King

The former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Tunde Lemo has said arresting Bureau De Change Operators (BDcs) suspected to be hoarding U.S. dollars will only worsen the nation’s economic position.

Lemo’s comment was after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) reportedly raided stands of BDCs in the Wuse Zone 4 area of Abuja last week.

Speaking to the press in Abeokuta, Ogun State on Saturday, Tunde Lemo explained that it was not the activity of the BDCs that caused forex scarcity but insecurity and non-remittance of forex by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation recently registered as the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited.

In his words: “This (the arrest) will lead us to nowhere and worsen the dire situation. The current scarcity is caused by the security situation in the country as well as the non-remittance of Forex by NNPC, a major supplier”.

The market is sensitive to too many rules. CBN should move more to the market- determined exchange rate policy with less capital control. This is the only way to attract liquidity from independent sources. Involving EFFC, at this stage will compound the problems”.

On August 5, it was reported that Abdulrasheed Bawa, Chairman, EFCC, met with the representatives of Bureau de Change Operators in Abuja to discuss how to curb forex hoarding and activities that could impede the progress of Nigeria’s economy.

According to Bawa, BDCs activities were responsible for the over N700 per US$1 exchange rate at the parallel market popularly known as the black market.

The meeting was EFFC’s effort at addressing the alarming crash in the value of the Nigerian Naira against its global counterparts on the black market and also to come up with a collaborative strategy between the commission and BDCs, especially at the black market/parallel market.

Furthermore, the commission hoped to have similar meetings at other major Bureau de Change Operator cities like Kano, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Enugu and Calabar.

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Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Plunged by $381 Million in a Month

Persistent dollar scarcity amid economic uncertainties ahead of the 2023 general elections continues to drag on Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

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Interbank rate






Persistent dollar scarcity amid economic uncertainties ahead of the 2023 general elections continues to drag on Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves declined by $381 million in the last one month, according to the data available on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) official website.

On the 6th of July, the reserves stood at $39.336 billion but dropped to $38.954 billion on August 8th, 2022, representing a decline of $381 million.

As a mono-product economy, Nigeria depends on crude oil for over 90% of its foreign revenue. However, poor infrastructure and regional crisis in the oil-rich Niger Delta have plunged the nation’s crude oil production from about 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) it averaged a few years back to 1.08 mbpd in July, according to the latest OPEC report released on July.

The drop in crude oil production has impeded the nation’s foreign revenue generation and forced the federal government to increase borrowing in order to plug the revenue deficit.

This, experts blamed for the nation’s rising debt servicing cost. In a recent report by the federal government, Nigeria was estimated to spend N10.43 trillion on debt servicing by 2025.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in about four years Nigeria will be spending 100% of her revenue on debt servicing.

“The biggest critical aspect for Nigeria is that we have done a macro-fiscal stress test, and what you observe is the interest payments as a share of revenue, and as you see us in terms of the baseline from the federal government of Nigeria, the revenue of almost 100 per cent is projected by 2026 to be taken by debt service,” stated Ari Aisen, a IMF Representative in Nigeria.

While Federal Government has insisted that Nigeria does not have a debt problem but a revenue problem. Patience Oniha, the Director General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), agreed that Nigeria’s rising debt will hinder the country from investing in infrastructure and the real sector of the economy.

The DMO boss said “High debt levels lead to heavy debt service which reduces resources available for investment in infrastructure and key sectors of the economy.”




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