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China Economic Growth Seen Slowing to 6.3 Percent Next Year: Economists

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  • China Economic Growth Seen Slowing to 6.3 Percent Next Year: Economists

China’s economic growth is expected to hit 6.6 percent this year and slow to 6.3 percent in 2019 as the country struggles with challenges relating to trade and structural reform, economists from Beijing’s Renmin University said in a report.

The predictions, published by the news service of the China Academy of Social Sciences late on Saturday, are in line with the median forecast in a poll of 73 economists by Reuters last month, with China under increasing pressure from a trade war with the United States.

But the economists with Renmin University’s School of Economics warned that China would still face difficulties even if trade tensions with the United States were resolved, with the country facing a deteriorating global trade environment, falling export growth and currency depreciation.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.5 percent year on year in the September quarter, its slowest quarter of growth since 2009, and Beijing has tried to encourage commercial banks to boost lending to private firms and take action to ease company financing problems.

The economists said it would be difficult to use short-term measures to alleviate downward economic pressures now building in China, and while recent policies should prevent a deeper decline in growth next year, a new round of structural supply-side reforms was needed.

They predicted that 2019 would be critical in the restructuring of China’s economy and its long-term transition to a slower and more high-quality growth model.

The report said next year should also see a rebalancing of China’s foreign trade, with imports likely to soar 16.1 percent, compared with a 6.1 percent rise in 2018.

Liu Yuanchun, dean of Renmin University’s School of Economics and one of the authors, said the steady decline in China’s savings rate and the stimulation of domestic consumption was now a more important factor in the country’s economic development than investment.

The report said Chinese consumer spending was expected to rise 9 percent next year, outpacing overall growth.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Crude Oil

Oil Trades Lower on US Hurricane Ease, China Economic Worries

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Crude oil

Oil prices dropped in the international market on Friday as traders overlooked supply disruptions from a hurricane in the US Gulf of Mexico just as moves by China to help its economy failed to impress some oil traders.

The global benchmark Brent crude futures fell by 2.3 percent or $1.76 to $73.87 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled at 70.35 per barrel, down by 2.7 percent or $1.98.

In the world’s largest oil-producing country, the US, producers shut in more than 23 percent of oil output in the US Gulf of Mexico by Friday to brace against Hurricane Rafael.

According to the US National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory, the storm weakened to a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, and this eased worries and oil prices.

Meanwhile, concerns about China proved to be more than examined even as the government announced a package easing debt-repayment strains for local governments.

However, these measures do little to directly target demand as concerns about weakening demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer, have also contributed to the oil price decline after data showed crude imports in China fell 9 percent in October.

The weakening of oil imports in China is due to weaker demand for oil as a result of the sluggish economic development and rapid advance of electronic vehicles (EVs) in one of the most advanced economies.

Despite Friday’s losses, oil prices gained more than 1 per cent week-over-week taking support from the emergence of Mr Donald Trump as the next president of the US and the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point.

Oil producers are looking forward to fewer regulations on crude production under a Trump presidency, meaning higher oil supply and consequently lower prices.

On the flip side, a Trump administration also means more sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, which could cut oil supply to global markets and potentially boost prices.

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Crude Oil

Brent, WTI Crude Prices Rise in Response to Expected Trump’s Policies

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Crude Oil

Oil prices rose nearly 1 percent on Thursday as the market considered how US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would affect supplies.

Brent crude oil futures settled up 71 cents, or 0.95 percent at $75.63 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 67 cents, or 0.93 percent to $72.36.

Prices gained support from expectations that Trump’s incoming administration may tighten sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

On Wednesday, the election of former Republican President Trump initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil down by more than $2 as the US dollar rallied.

A strong Dollar makes oil expensive and this typically leads to a drop in prices.

In his first term, Mr Trump put in place harsher sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, limiting supply and supporting oil prices.

However, his successor, Mr Joe Biden briefly rolled back the sanctions but he would later reinstate them.

Such a move would raise the cost of China’s imports, piling pressure on a refining sector grappling with weak fuel demand and tight margins.

However, China and Iran have built a trading system that uses mostly Chinese Yuan and a network of middlemen, avoiding the Dollar and exposure to US regulators, making sanctions enforcement tough.

However, analysts say that the US government has been reluctant to take steps that would remove supply from the global market as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Also supporting prices, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the close of its policy meeting on Thursday.

The US Federal Reserve said it will continue assessing data to determine the pace and destination of interest rates as officials reset tight monetary policy to account for inflation that has slowed markedly in the past year and is nearing the US central bank’s 2 percent target.

Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.

Support also came as some companies cut supply in the US due to Hurricane Rafael. According to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), over 22 percent equivalent to 391,214 barrels per day, of crude oil production was shut in response to the hurricane.

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Petrol

Three Oil Companies Ask Court To Stop NMDPRA From Seizing Their Petrol Import Licences, Accuse Dangote Refinery of Monopoly

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

In response to Dangote Refinery N1 billion suit, three oil companies including Matrix Petroleum Services Limited, A.A. Rano Limited, and AYM Shafa Limited, have prayed the Federal High Court in Abuja to stop the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) from reviewing or withdrawing their import licenses.

The oil companies also urged the court not to block them from importing petrol in the interest of energy security and promotion of healthy competition in the Nigerian oil and gas sector.

Dangote Refinery had approached the court and filed and a N100 billion suit in damages against NMDPRA for allegedly continuing to issue import licenses to NNPCL, Matrix, and other companies for importing petroleum products such as Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Jet Fuel (Aviation Turbine Fuel), despite that the refinery is producing the products in quantity that meets Nigerians’ needs.

The refinery also dragged NNPCL, AYM Shafa Limited, A.A. Rano Limited, T. Time Petroleum Limited, 2015 Petroleum Limited, and Matrix Petroleum Services Limited in the suit.

Counsel to Dangote Refinery, Ogwu James Onoja SAN, in the originating summons, dated September 6, 2024, claimed that NMDPRA contravened Sections 317(8) and (9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) by issuing import licenses for petroleum products.

Onoja stated that such licenses should only be granted in cases of petroleum product shortages and not when Dangote Refinery is meeting the needs of the populace.

According to Onoja, NMDPRA has been discouraging local refiners such as Dangote Refinery by its actions.

Responding to the suit through their written address and counter-affidavit, dated November 5, 2024, and filed by Ahmed Raji SAN, the three oil companies said their businesses do not in any way hamper, disrupt, or harm Dangote Refinery’s operations.

The three defendants claimed the plaintiff allegedly sought to monopolise the petroleum industry in Nigeria, where it alone would control supply, distribution, and pricing.

In the defendants’ affidavit, deposed by Ali Ibrahim Abiodun, Acting Managing Director of AYM Shafa (with the consent and authority of Matrix, A.A. Rano, and AYM), it was stated that the defendants are qualified and capable of being licensed as importers of refined petroleum products under Section 317(9) of the PIA and that their licenses to import such products were lawfully issued by the appropriate authority, NMDPRA.

The deponent claimed that it typically takes an average of two months for Dangote Refinery to fulfill orders and that it rarely meets demand, with trucks waiting for months to be loaded at the refinery.

In contrast, he claimed it takes about three weeks to import petroleum products from offshore refineries.

The affidavit revealed that A.A. Rano’s oil depot in Lagos has a storage capacity of 55,000,000 liters and can load about 200 trucks per 24 hours.

The deponent stated that the company also owns 220 filling stations and another 85 affiliates and leased filling stations.

According to the deponent, AA Rano was one of the first to take delivery of AGO from Dangote Refinery, loading 20,000 MT of AGO on or about April 16, 2024, and has since purchased and loaded additional cargoes totaling approximately 190,000,000 liters.

Despite this patronage, the affidavit claimed that Dangote Refinery has continued to place obstacles that make it difficult for A.A. Rano to purchase products solely from the refinery.

The oil companies called on the court to dismiss the suit.

Meanwhile, the court adjourned the matter till January 20, 2025, for a status report.

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