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Nigeria’s Crude Export to US May Hit Zero

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  • Nigeria’s Crude Export to US May Hit Zero

The imports of Nigerian crude oil and other West African grades to the United States look set to plunge to nearly zero amid growing shale oil production in the North American country, our correspondent has learnt.

The US Atlantic Coast imports of West African crude oil are expected to decline due to harsh arbitrage conditions made difficult by the large premium of ICE Brent futures over West Texas Intermediate, as well as strong premiums for WAF grades.

According to S&P Global Platts, Traders tracking these grades exported in the US expect WAF imports to the USAC to fall to virtually zero.

The USAC from May to August imported an average of roughly 24 million barrels a month, of which 8.7 million barrels were from West Africa, data from the Energy Information Administration compiled by S&P Global Platts showed.

“The arbitrage of WAF grades into the US is fully closed,” a trader was quoted as saying.

Although negligible in outright terms, WAF arrivals in the region in the four months sampled compared to all foreign imports reached as high as 45.4 per cent in June and as low as 19.8 per cent in July.

Nigerian grades tend to make up 40 per cent of WAF imports and Angolan 20 per cent, the rest coming from smaller more regional grades, according to the report.

Traders were said to lose money in buying basis Dated Brent and selling basis WTI, implying the arbitrage only becomes possible when local buyers are able to cover the cost of conversion by bidding above, something which prompts them to look at alternatives when the spread is high.

The Brent/WTI spread closed at minus $10 per barrel Monday last week, its highest level since mid-June, data from the InterContinental Exchange showed.

At a time when everything is becoming more expensive, the US refiners are scheduled to enter seasonal maintenance throughout October, taking away the demand for foreign crudes.

The US purchased a total of 45.79 million barrels of Nigerian crude in the first half of this year, down from 55.78 million barrels in the same period last year, according to latest data obtained by our correspondent on Wednesday.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the US bought 2.89 million barrels of Nigerian crude in May, the lowest since February 2016.

The imports of Nigerian crude by the US rose by 48 per cent to 112.92 million barrels last year, the highest annual level in five years, up from 75.81 million barrels in 2016 and 19.86 million barrels in 2015.

The US import of Nigerian crude fell from 148.48 million barrels in 2012 to 87.40 million barrels in 2013 on the back of shale oil boom, the data showed.

In 2014, when global oil prices started to fall from a peak of $115 per barrel, Nigeria saw a further drop in the US imports of its crude to 21.2 million barrels.

For the first time in decades, the US did not purchase any barrel of Nigerian crude in July and August 2014 and June 2015, according to the EIA data.

In 2010, the US bought as much as 358.9 million barrels from Nigeria, but slashed its imports to 280.1 million barrels in 2011.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

Economy

IMF Approves Reforms to Support Low-Income Countries From Shocks

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a set of reforms that will help it support Low-Income Countries (LICs) from shocks over the long term.

The changes to the lender’s concessional lending facilities were contained in a statement by the IMF on Monday.

The US-based lender said these reforms are detailed in the staff paper “2024 Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) Facilities and Financing—Reform Proposals.”

The fund said it significantly scaled up support to its low-income members in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent major shocks.

“The annual lending commitments have risen to an average of SDR 5.5 billion since 2020, compared with about SDR 1.2 billion during the preceding decade,” the statement said.

“Outstanding PRGT credit has tripled since the pandemic’s onset, while funding costs at the SDR interest rate have risen sharply. As a result, the PRGT faces an acute funding shortfall, with its self-sustained lending capacity projected to decline, absent reforms, to about SDR 1 billion a year by 2027, well below expected demand.”

The reforms approved by the IMF’s Executive Board aim at maintaining adequate financial support to low-income countries while restoring the self-sustainability of the PRGT.

“The Executive Board today endorsed a long-term annual lending envelope of SDR 2.7 billion ($3.6 billion) and approved a package of policy reforms and resource mobilization to support that lending capacity.

“The envelope, which is more than twice the pre-pandemic capacity, is calibrated to ensure that the Fund can use its limited concessional resources to continue providing vital balance of payment support to LICs, while supporting strong economic policies and catalyzing fresh financing from other sources.

“The Review includes policy changes that reflect the increasing economic heterogeneity among LICs. A new tiered interest rate mechanism will enhance the targeting of scarce PRGT resources to the poorest LICs, which will continue to benefit from interest-free lending, while better-off LICs will be charged a modest, and still concessional, interest rate,” the statement said.

After a successful bilateral fundraising, and in the context of a robust financial outlook for the Fund, the membership reached consensus on a framework to deploy IMF internal resources to facilitate the generation of PRGT subsidy resources.

Specifically, the fund said SDR 5.9 billion (about $ 8 billion), in 2025 present value terms, is expected to be generated through a framework to distribute GRA net income and/or reserves over the next five years.

This is in addition to bilateral subsidy contributions, the subsidy savings from the new interest rate mechanism, and financing from a proposed further five-year suspension of PRGT administrative expenses reimbursement to the GRA.

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Economy

Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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Economy

World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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