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FG Plans N8.9tn Budget for 2019

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  • FG Plans N8.9tn Budget for 2019

The Federal Government is planning to spend a total of N8.9tn in the 2019 fiscal period.

The amount is an increase of N305.86bn over the original estimates of N8.61tn presented to the legislature on November 7, 2017 by President Muhammadu Buhari for the 2018 fiscal year.

However, the planned N8.9tn spending will be about N220bn lower than the N9.12tn 2018 budget, which was passed by the National Assembly and assented to by the President.

The government is also planning to raise a total of N6.32tn as revenue next year to finance the budget.

The N6.32tn, when compared to the N7.16tn revenue projection approved for the current year, represents a decline of about N840bn.

The figures are contained in the Fiscal Strategy Paper of the Federal Government, which was obtained by our correspondent from the Budget Office of the Federation in Abuja.

The document showed that as a result of the planned increase in spending, the fiscal deficit of the government was expected to rise from the current N1.9tn to N2.59tn in 2019.

Further analysis of the document showed that the ratio of the country’s deficit to Gross Domestic Product was estimated to be at 2.08 per cent by next year.

It was also revealed that capital expenditure as a percentage of non-debt expenditure had been estimated at 41.28 per cent for 2019.

In the same vein, capital expenditure as a percentage of the total Federal Government spending is expected to drop from 31.5 per cent this year to 29.57 per cent next year, while recurrent expenditure as a percentage of government spending is being planned to rise from 68.5 per cent to 70.43 per cent.

Further analysis showed that debt service to revenue ratio might rise from this year’s rate of 30.76 per cent to 36.53 per cent in the 2019 fiscal year, while deficit as a percentage of the total Federal Government revenue might increase from 27.22 per cent to 40.95 per cent.

Oil production volume, according to the document, is expected to rise from 2.3 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, with the budgeted oil benchmark price pegged at $50 per barrel.

In terms of revenue that will be available to fund the expenditure, details of the N6.32tn projected revenue showed that oil was expected to generate N3.24tn next year as against the budgeted N2.98tn for the current year.

On the other hand, non-oil revenue is expected to contribute N1.55tn next year as against the N1.24tn budgeted for this year.

A breakdown of the N1.55ttn non-oil revenue showed that N906.1bn is expected to be collected as Companies’ Income Tax compared to the 2018 budgeted amount of N658.5bn, while N264.1bn is expected to come from Value Added Tax as against N207.51bn projected for this year.

The Nigeria Customs Service, according to the document, is expected to provide the sum of N324.25bn for the Federal Government next year, which is marginally lower than the N324.86bn set for the agency for 2018.

Other sources of revenue to finance next year’s budget, according to the document, are independent revenue, which is projected at N890.34bn as against N847.94bn for this year; and special levies of N12.9bn as against N17.21bn in the current fiscal period.

In the same vein, the sum of N203.37bn is expected to be raised through domestic recoveries, assets and fines as against N374bn this year.

Similarly, about N168.97bn is being planned to be realised from other recoveries in 2019 compared to N138.43bn for the current year.

Grants and donor funding are expected to contribute N209.9bn to government’s revenue next year as against the N199.9bn captured in the 2018 budget.

On the expenditure side, the strategy document stated that out of the projected N8.9tn spending, N2.38tn would go for capital expenditure next year, as against N2.42tn for this year.

Debt service is expected to gulp N2.31tn next year as against N1.95tn this year, while N3.16tn is projected to be spent on recurrent expenditure (non-debt) as against N3.51tn provided in the current year’s budget.

Other projections for the 2019 fiscal year are personnel costs of N2.1tn; overheads, N210bn; pensions, N220bn; Power Sector Reform Programme, N251.4bn; service wide votes, N208.6bn; and the Presidential Amnesty Programme, N70bn.

Finance and economic experts said that in view of the fact that oil prices had been on the upward trend coupled with the aggressive tax revenue drive of the Federal Government, implementing a budget size of N8.9tn would not be too difficult.

The Registrar, Institute of Finance and Control of Nigeria, Mr Godwin Eohoi, stated, “It will be possible to finance the budget, because looking at the oil price, it was at $50 to a barrel when the 2018 budget was presented, but now it’s selling far above $70 per barrel.

“So it is still within acceptable limit to have the benchmark at $50 per barrel.

“There are other windows available to the government to generate more revenue, considering the aggressive drive to raise tax revenue from six per cent of the Gross Domestic Product to 15 per cent; so, I think the budget is implementable by the government.”

A developmental economist, Odilim Enwagbara, said the size of the Federal Government’s budget was still low compared to the country’s GDP size.

He noted that for the budget to make any significant impact, it must be raised to about 10 per cent of the GDP.

Enwagbara stated, “We should also raise the oil benchmark price to $80 per barrel to enable us deploy more revenue to fund the budget. The budget should be increased further to about 10 per cent of our GDP, because we have one of the lowest budgets in the world.

“When South Africa is budgeting about $200bn, Nigeria is having about $28bn budget for the year; this is very low for us as a country.”

A former Director General, Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Chijioke Ekechukwu, said the budget figure could be absorbed by the expected revenue from oil and other sectors.

He explained, “This revenue expectation does not obliterate the deficit end of the budget, which will still be funded by debts. Much as the debt profile of Nigeria is rising every day, the debt to GDP ratio is still not above any tolerable benchmark.

“As far as the increase is not arising from indiscriminate and arbitrary increase for selfish gains, the budget will be implementable.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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