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Chinese Companies Relocate to Dodge Trump’s Tariffs

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  • Chinese Companies Relocate to Dodge Trump’s Tariffs

A growing number of Chinese companies are adopting a crafty way to evade US President Donald Trump’s tariffs: remove the “Made in China” label by shifting production to countries such as Vietnam, Serbia and Mexico.

The world’s two largest economies have been locked in a months-long trade fight after Trump imposed 25 percent customs duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods this summer, triggering a swift tit-for-tat response from Beijing.

Chinese factories making everything from bikes to tyres, plastics and textiles are moving assembly lines abroad to skirt higher customs taxes on their exports to the United States and elsewhere, according to public filings.

Hl Corp, a Shenzhen-listed bike parts maker, made clear to investors last month that tariffs were in mind when it decided to move production to Vietnam.

The factory will “reduce and evade” the impact of tariffs, management wrote, noting Trump hit e-bikes in August, with new border taxes planned for bicycles and their parts.

Trump warned last week those tariffs — targeting $200 billion in Chinese imports — could come “very soon”.

“It’s inevitable that the new duties will lead companies to review their supply chains globally — overnight they will become 25 percent less competitive than they were,” said Christopher Rogers, a supply chain expert at trade data firm Panjiva.

Supply chains have already begun relocating out of China in recent years as its rising labour and environmental protection costs have made the country less attractive.

Tariffs are adding fuel to the fire, experts and companies say.

“China-US trade frictions are accelerating the trend of the global value chain changing shape,” said Cui Fan, research director at the China Society of WTO Studies, a think tank affiliated with the commerce ministry.

“The shifting abroad of labour-intensive assembly could bring unemployment problems and this needs to be closely watched,” Cui said, adding the shift would not help the US’s overall trade deficit.

The growing list of foreign firms moving supply chains away from China — toy company Hasbro, camera maker Olympus, shoe brands Deckers and Steve Madden, among many others — already has Beijing worried.

Less discussed are the Chinese factories doing the same.

Zhejiang Hailide New Material ships much of its industrial yarns, tyre cord fabric, and printing materials from its plant in eastern Zhejiang province to the US and other countries.

Trump’s first wave of tariffs on $50 billion in goods this summer hit some of its exports; the next round of $200 billion looks like it will hit several more.

“Currently all of our company’s production is in China. To better evade the risks of anti-dumping cases and tariff hikes, our company has after lengthy investigation decided to set up a factory in Vietnam,” executives told investors last month.

“We hope to speed up its construction, and hope in the future it can handle production for the American market,” a company vice president said of the $155 million investment that will ramp up production by 50 percent.

Other moves abroad spurred on by tariff risks include a garment maker going to Myanmar, a mattress company opening a plant in Thailand and an electronic motor producer acquiring a Mexico-based factory, according to public filings from the firms.

Linglong Tyre is relying mostly on low cost credit to build a $994 million plant in Serbia.

The entire tyre industry faces a “grim trade friction situation”, Linglong told investors last month, citing “one after another” anti-dumping cases against China.

“Building a factory abroad allows ‘indirect growth,’ by evading international trade barriers.”

China’s bike industry faces a similar pivotal moment. The centre of manufacturing will shift away from China in the future, bike part maker H1 Corp told investors when announcing its Vietnam factory.

Some of Hl’s customers started moving production — especially of e-bikes — to Vietnam, said Alex Lee, in charge of global sales at Hl Corp.

“First of all there is no anti-dumping tax on Vietnam,” Lee said, adding labour costs were lower there as well.

China’s growing e-bike industry faces duties not only from the US but also the European Union, which slapped provisional anti-dumping tariffs of 22 to 84 percent on Chinese-made e-bikes in July, alleging Chinese companies benefited from cut-rate aluminium and other state subsidies.

The state support Chinese companies receive is key to the Trump administration’s case in taxing Chinese goods, but Hl shows how companies may continue to benefit even after shifting some of their production overseas.

Government subsidies, including millions of yuan to “enhance company competitiveness”, eclipsed H1’s profit during the first six months of the year, its filings show.

Still the company went ahead and bought an operating factory in Vietnam.

Lee noted they had transferred mass production of aluminium forks and steering parts to the new plant from their factory in Tianjin.

He did not know if it would lead to job cuts in China.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hovers Above $84 as Demand Rises in U.S. and China

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Brent crude oil continued its upward trajectory above $84 a barrel as demand in the United States and China, the two largest consumers of crude globally increased.

This surge in demand coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has bolstered oil markets, maintaining Brent crude’s resilience above $84 a barrel.

The latest data revealed a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. where falling crude inventories coincided with higher refinery runs.

This trend indicates growing consumption patterns and a positive outlook for oil demand in the world’s largest economy.

In China, oil imports for April exceeded last year’s figures, driven by signs of improving trade activity, as exports and imports returned to growth after a previous contraction.

ANZ Research analysts highlighted the ongoing strength in demand from China, suggesting that this could keep commodity markets well supported in the near term.

The positive momentum in demand from these key economies has provided a significant boost to oil prices in recent trading sessions.

However, amidst these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added further support to oil markets. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack setting fire to an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region have heightened concerns about supply disruptions and escalated tensions in the region.

Also, ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has fueled apprehensions of broader unrest, particularly given Iran’s support for Palestinian group Hamas.

Citi analysts emphasized the geopolitical risks facing the oil market, pointing to Israel’s actions in Rafah and growing tensions along its northern border. They cautioned that such risks could persist throughout the second quarter of 2024.

Despite the current bullish sentiment, analysts anticipate a moderation in oil prices as global demand growth appears to be moderating with Brent crude expected to average $86 a barrel in the second quarter and $74 in the third quarter.

The combination of robust demand from key economies like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continues to influence oil markets with Brent crude hovering above $84 a barrel.

As investors closely monitor developments in both demand dynamics and geopolitical events, the outlook for oil prices remains subject to ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.

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Crude Oil

Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Concerns and Saudi Supply Signals

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As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday on renewed concerns in the Middle East and signals from Saudi Arabia regarding its crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, surged by 51 cents to $83.47 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 53 cents to $78.64 a barrel.

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hamas has amplified fears of a widening conflict in the key oil-producing region, prompting investors to closely monitor developments.

Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza have been underway, but prospects for a deal appeared slim as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The uncertainty surrounding the conflict was further exacerbated on Monday when Israel’s military called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation, sparking concerns of a potential ground assault.

Analysts warned that such developments risk derailing ceasefire negotiations and reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June.

This move signaled the kingdom’s anticipation of strong demand during the summer months and contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

The uptick in prices comes after both Brent and WTI crude futures posted their steepest weekly losses in three months last week, reflecting concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, with most of the long positions in oil cleared last week, analysts suggest that the risks are skewed towards a rebound in prices in the early part of this week, particularly for WTI prices towards the $80 mark.

Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest crude importer, services activity remained in expansionary territory for the 16th consecutive month, signaling a sustained economic recovery.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term.

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices.

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