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U.S. Producer Prices Post First Drop in One-and-a-half Years

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  • U.S. Producer Prices Post First Drop in One-and-a-half Years

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, recording their first drop in 1-1/2 years, as declines in the prices of food and a range of trade services offset an increase in the cost of energy products.

Despite the surprise weakness in producer prices reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday, overall inflation is steadily rising, driven by a tightening labor market and robust economy. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates later this month for the third time this year.

The producer price index for final demand slipped 0.1 percent last month after being unchanged in July. August’s fall in the PPI was the first since February 2017. In the 12 months through August, the PPI rose 2.8 percent, slowing further after July’s 3.3 percent increase.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI increasing 0.2 percent in August and advancing 3.2 percent year-on-year.

A key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services edged up 0.1 percent last month. The so-called core PPI gained 0.3 percent in July.

In the 12 months through August, the core PPI increased 2.9 percent after rising 2.8 percent in July.

U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data. The link between producer and consumer prices has weakened after the government revamped the PPI basket and changed methodology several years ago.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased 2.0 percent in July, hitting the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target for the third time this year.

Economist expect the Trump administration’s import tariffs on lumber, washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminum, as well as a range of Chinese goods, to put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months.

Wholesale food prices fell 0.6 percent last month, pulled down by sharp declines in the costs of eggs and fresh fruits and melons. Food prices, which dipped 0.1 percent in July, have now decreased for three straight months.

Wholesale energy prices rose 0.4 percent, with gasoline prices increasing 0.6 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in the prior month. Energy prices fell 0.5 percent in July.

Overall, the cost of wholesale goods was unchanged in August after edging up 0.1 percent in July. Prices for iron and steel scrap fell 5.6 percent in August, the biggest drop since October 2017. Nonferrous scrap prices decreased 8.7 percent, the largest decline since January 2009.

The cost of services slipped 0.1 percent last month, led by a 0.9 percent decline in the index for trade services, which measures changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. Services dipped 0.1 percent in July.

Over 80 percent of the drop in the cost of services last month was attributed to margins for machines and equipment wholesaling, which fell 1.7 percent

The cost of healthcare services rose 0.3 percent as a 0.5 percent drop in prices for hospital outpatient care was offset by a 0.6 percent jump in the cost of doctor visits, which was the largest gain since June 2010. There were also increases in prices of hospital inpatient and dental care.

Healthcare prices ticked up 0.1 percent in July.

Those healthcare costs feed into the core PCE price index.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Dangote Refinery Denies Legal Battle With NNPCL, Others, Reveals Plan to Withdraw Old Case From Court

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Dangote Refinery

Dangote Refinery has denied reports of filing a lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), Aym Shafa Limited, A. A. Rano Limited, T. Time Petroleum Limited, 2015 Petroleum Limited and Matrix Petroleum Services Limited, as widely reported.

Dangote made this known in a statement published via its official X handle on Monday.

A viral report alleging that Dangote filed a suit against the NNPCL and five other companies over the importation of petroleum products emerged online sparking a huge controversy.

Reacting to the viral report, the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, via the statement denied any legal battle with the NNPC.

According to Dangote, the alleged report was an old one and would be fully and formally withdrawn when the matter comes up in court next year.

Dangote revealed that after the president’s directive, they have been in discussions with all parties involved.

Dismissing that no party has been served with court notice, Dangote emphasized that the discussions have made significant headway and there were no intentions of going to court.

The statement read, “This is an old issue that started in June and culminated in a matter being filed on September 6, 2024.

“Currently, the parties are in discussion since President Bola Tinubu’s directive on Crude Oil and Refined products sales in Naira Initiative, which was approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC).

“We have made tremendous progress in that regard and events have overtaken this development. No party has been served with court processes and there is no intention of doing so. We have agreed to put a halt to the proceedings.

“It is important to stress that no orders have been made and there are no adverse effects on any party. We understand that once the matter comes up January 2025, we would be in a position to formally withdraw the matter in court.”

Investors King reported that following Dangote’s failure to meet petroleum demand by marketers in the country, the oil dealers returned to their former mode of buying the product outside the country and shipping them into Nigeria for sale.

According to the marketers, the move was an effort to save the country from fuel scarcity which Dangote’s inability to meet the supply demand may push the country into.

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Gold

Gold Soars to Record $2,740/oz as Investors Seek Safe Haven Amid Economic Uncertainty

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gold bars - Investors King

Gold surged to a new all-time high of $2,740/oz, reflecting heightened demand by genuine buyers who are actively building positions, signaling confidence in gold’s value preservation over time.

The metal’s appeal lies in its ability to provide stability in a relativity fluid macroeconomic environment. With the U.S. election on the horizon, investors are preparing for potential market shifts, which could sustain gold’s upward momentum.

Regardless of the election outcome, expanded fiscal spending appears unavoidable. A red sweep could prioritize defense spending and traditional energy investments while a blue sweep may bring more expansive social programs and green energy investments.

Both scenarios point toward fiscal expansion, which may pressure the U.S. dollar over time, thereby enhancing the appeal of gold.

As Asian currencies remain sensitive to dollar movements, we could see increased demand for gold from these markets as investors seek value protection amidst currency fluctuations.

Gold’s strong rally could extend further toward $2,800-$2,900/oz in the coming months, especially if geopolitical risks persist or market participants anticipate slower monetary tightening.

However, periods of consolidation might occur, especially if higher bond yields temporarily reduce gold’s allure.

Still, buying interest seems well-established, with many investors adopting an accumulate-on-dips approach. If volatility remains elevated and fiscal policies continue expanding, gold’s role as a long-term store of value may solidify further, potentially paving the way for new highs.

Written by Ahmad Assiri Research Strategist at Pepperstone

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Jump 2% as Israel Heightens Attack in Middle East

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices traded 2 percent higher on Monday as the fight in the Middle East ragged on amid heightened Israel retaliation against attacks by Iran earlier this month.

Brent crude rose by $1.23 or 1.68 per cent to close at $74.29 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was $1.34 or 1.94 per cent higher at $70.56 a barrel.

On Monday Israel reportedly attacked hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip as it continued its fight against Palestinian militants.

International media also reported that Israel carried out targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s funding arm in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State, Mr Antony Blinken said the Israel ally will push for a ceasefire as he embarks on a journey to the Middle East.

According to the US State Department, the American government will be seeking to kick-start negotiations to end the Gaza war and ensure it also defuses the possibility of escalation in Lebanon.

Mr Amos Hochstein, a US envoy, will hold talks with Lebanese officials in the Lebanon capital, Beirut on conditions for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

Support also came from China, as the world’s largest oil importer cut its lending rate as part of efforts to stimulate the country’s economy and offer investors relief.

This development will soothe worries after data showed that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mr Fatih Birol on Monday said China’s oil demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from the government.

He said this is because the world’s second-largest economy has continued to accelerate its Electric Vehicles (EV) fleet and this is causing oil demand to grow at a slower pace.

Meanwhile, Saudi’s state oil company, Aramco remains fairly bullish in comparison as its Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Mr Amin Nasser said there is more demand for chemical projects on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week conference.

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