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Forex Weekly Outlook August 20 – 24

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British pound
  • Forex Weekly Outlook August 20 – 24

Global uncertainty and rising interest rates in developed economies are dictating the direction of the currency market. The slow down in China, rising risk in emerging economies, global trade tensions and weak wage growth are some of the key factors that will decide the foreign exchange rate of most nations going forward.

In the Uk, the pound has been falling since the Bank of England raised policy rate to 0.75 percent despite the projected increase in domestic demand, surged in consumer spending, 14-month record high expansion in the construction sector and moderate manufacturing growth. Indicating that growing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations is overshadowing the underlying fundamentals, therefore, hurting business sentiment and economic growth.

In Canada, surge in domestic inflation boosted the odds of the Bank of Canada raising interest rate as soon as September. The inflation rate rose to 3 percent year-on-year in July, up from 2.5 percent from the previous month and beats analysts’ projection of 2.5 percent. This was after the central bank raised interest rate for the fourth time within a year in July, validating the central bank’s assessment of the economy — “that the economy is operating close to capacity and further rate hikes will be needed”.

In Australia, the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, while wage growth and inflation rate remained below expectation. This, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia said will hurt consumer spending in the near term, especially with the rising household debt. However, he expects wage growth to pick up gradually as the labour market gets tighter. The optimism he expressed during ‘Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics’ bolstered Australian dollar outlook.

But growing uncertainty in emerging economies like Turkey, Venezuela (after the government devalued the currency by 95 percent) etc is disrupting the outlook of emerging currencies.

Therefore, because of the pound’s broad sell-off following the possible “no deal comments”. The focus will be on pound’s pairs this week.

GBPCAD

After the head and shoulders pattern, the GBPCAD dropped 663 pips to set a new record low at 1.6593 for the year. But with the renewed interest in the Canadian dollar due to the projected rise in interest rates in September and strong economic outlook, we might see a further surge in sellers’ interest on GBPCAD. Enough to push price towards 1.6339 support level in coming days. Therefore, as long as price remains below 1.7054 resistant level, I am bearish on this pair and will be looking to jump in below the 1.6661 support.

Forex Weekly Outlook August 20 - 24

GBPAUD

Similarly, the Australian dollar is a haven currency, therefore, enjoys rise in trade volume during a period of high uncertainty. Also, despite the weak consumer spending and sluggish wage growth, the surge in global commodity prices is supporting its economic growth. This week, I will be looking to sell the GBPAUD below the 1.7434 for 1.7274 support and expect a sustained break of that level to open up 1.7100 support level.

Forex Weekly Outlook August 20 - 24

EURCAD

While the Euro gained back part of its lost ground against the Canadian dollar on Monday, due to the drop in the value of commodity-dependent currencies following Venezuela devaluation, it is unclear if the new momentum can be sustained. This is because the currency crisis in Turkey and the uncertainty about the planned budget in Italy could weigh on the Euro, especially if the planned US-China trade talks scheduled for this week fails.

EURCADWeekly

Again, as long as price remains below the ascending channel as shown above, I will be looking to sell this pair for all the aforementioned reasons. The bearish trend started in March is likely to continue towards the 1.4799 support level now that the odds of the Bank of Canada raising rates in September is growing. However, I will be cautious because of the numerous events due this week.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Naira to Dollar Exchange Rate Dips to N707 at the Black Market

The Nigerian Naira exchanged at N707 to a United States Dollar on the black market, a N2 decline from N705 it traded on Tuesday.

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NAIRA - Investors King

The Naira to Dollar exchange rate remained under pressure as of Wednesday, September 14, 2022, amid Nigeria’s persistent foreign exchange scarcity.

The Nigerian Naira exchanged at N707 to a United States Dollar on the black market, a N2 decline from N705 it traded on Tuesday.

At the Investors & Exporters (I&E) forex window, the Naira opened at N434.75 against the United States Dollar on Tuesday before shedding 0.11% to N436.04. Currency traders at the window (I&E) traded $83.71 million worth of currency on Tuesday.

At the Central Bank of Nigeria‘s (CBN) managed interbank forex section, the Naira was sold at N428.81 to a U.S Dollar on Tuesday. The Pounds Sterling – Naira exchange rate was  N502.9512 while the Euro traded at N436.4857.

Crude Oil

Oil prices traded lower on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding interest rates continues to dictate demands for the commodity.

The brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dipped to $92.83 a barrel while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil shed 0.37% to $86.99 a barrel.

On Tuesday, U.S. data showed the inflation rate rose to 8.3% in the month of August, a strong indication that inflation pressures remain stubborn in the world’s largest economy. This coupled with European Central Bank’s comments that it will continue to raise interest rates to curb rising prices weighed on oil prices on Wednesday.

Energy investors have started lowering the outlook projections, saying rising prices would impact demand for the commodity as global economic growth slowdown.

Cryptocurrency

Like every other asset, cryptocurrency extended its decline on Wednesday ahead of Ethereum merge and transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake.

Bitcoin, the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency lost 3.25% to N14.65 million, or $20,250.25 per coin. While Eth, the token of the Ethereum protocol appreciated by 0.41% to N1.131 million or $1,597 a coin.

Earlier this week, cryptocurrency appreciated across the board. However, the reports that there is an arrest warrant against Do Kwon, the co-founder of the now defunct stablecoin issuer Terraform Labs, from the financial crimes unit of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office of South Korea weighed on the cryptocurrency outlook.

 

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Naira

CBN Uses $7.6 Billion to Defend the Nigerian Naira in Five Months

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said a total sum of $7.6 billion was used to defend the Nigerian Naira in the first five months of the year.

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said a total sum of $7.6 billion was used to defend the Nigerian Naira in the first five months of the year.

The bank stated in its recent monthly economic report accessed by Investors King.

In January, February and March, CBN intervened in the forex markets with $1.65 billion, $1.39 billion and $1.82 billion, respectively. This continues in the months of April and May.

The apex bank pumped $1.56 billion into the economy in April and expended another $1.318 billion in May to prop up the value of the Nigerian Naira against its global counterparts.

Despite the $7.6 billion, or N3.25 trillion (using the official exchange rate) spent in sustaining the Naira value, the local currency has shed over 100% of its value this year alone and it is presently being exchanged at over N700 to a United States Dollar at the black market.

Nigeria has official exchange rates used by the CBN and the Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), and the unofficial exchange rates, popularly available, at the black market — the main forex section patronise by most Nigerians in need of forex for various reasons.

At the CBN interbank foreign exchange section, the Nigerian Naira was sold at N428.1 to a United States Dollar to DMBs allowed to deal directly with the CBN. Presently, the Naira is exchanged at N710 to a United States Dollar on the black market. Suggesting that the unofficial rate is 65.84% higher than the CBN official rate. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have advised Nigeria to stabilise and unify its exchange rates.

Investors King earlier reported that the World Bank President, David Malpass admonished Nigeria on currency stabilisation when he met with the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo last week in the United States. 

Talking about the issue, Malpass stressed the economic benefits of unifying the exchange rates and the significance of stabilisation to Nigerians.

He disclosed that a unified exchange rate will significantly improve the business-enabling environment in Nigeria, attract foreign direct investment, and reduce inflation. 

Malpass also advised Nigeria on the importance of increasing its domestic revenue by enlarging the country’s tax net through improved efficiency in tax administration. 

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Naira

Naira Likely To Weaken Further; Says Nigeria Finance Minister

Nigerian Naira will decline even further despite losing over 100% of its value since President Muhammadu Buhari came to power.

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Naira - Investors King

Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed has said the Nigerian Naira will decline even further despite losing over 100% of its value since President Muhammadu Buhari came to power.

The minister disclosed this in an interview granted in Egypt and monitored by Investors King.

This is coming amid the scarcity of foreign exchange, widespread insecurity, increased unemployment and high inflation which has increased to 19.64 percent on a year-to-year basis in July.

Investors King had reported that the prices of goods and services in Nigeria rose to a 17-year high in July 2022, pushing the Consumer Price Index which measures the inflation rate to a 19.64% high, the highest since September 2005 when inflation peaked at 24.32 percent. 

Nigeria’s currency has been on a free fall against its global counterparts this year. On the black market, the exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar stood at N708/$1 on Friday, 9th September 2022. Naira traded against the dollar at the same price on Thursday. 

However, the exchange rate at the official Investors and Exporters window dipped further to close at N436.32/$ on Thursday.

Meanwhile, forex supply fell marginally by 54.4% to $37.5 million when compared to $82.23 million which was traded at the official market on Thursday.

While on the cryptocurrency peer-to-peer market, specifically on Binance, the dollar traded at the rate of N705.30/$. 

The country’s foreign reserve stood at a gross of $39.43 billion and a liquid of $39.18 billion. 

Nigeria which is widely acclaimed as Africa’s largest economy, however, saw its currency “Naira”  rated as the 11th worst performing currency in the world and fourth in Africa

Overall in Africa, the Zimbabwean dollar which has lost 99.33 percent of its value, was rated as the worst performing currency in Africa and the second in the world. Venezuela’s Bolivar was the worst-performing currency against the dollar with a depreciation rate of 99.39 percent. 

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