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Nigeria Risks Fresh Politics-induced Economic Crisis

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  • Nigeria Risks Fresh Politics-induced Economic Crisis

With the invasion of the National Assembly complex yesterday by men of the Department of State Services (DSS), the political environment may have triggered caution signals about investing in the country. The development, which investors perceived as akin to dismantling of democratic institutions, affected equities transactions yesterday at the bourse, worsening the stock market’s long running negative trend.

Specifically, while the stock market recorded marginal depreciation of N7 billion to N13.315 trillion on Monday from N13.322 trillion last Friday, it reacted sharply yesterday as the news of the invasion of the National Assembly filtered in, pushing the decline by N54 billion, from N13.315 trillion on Monday to N13.261 trillion.

This same mode, which took its toll on the economy in the period preceding 2015 elections, facilitated huge capital flight by both foreign and local investors, estimated in billions of dollars, with concomitant effect on the exchange rate.

A research analyst in a subsidiary of one of Nigeria’s big banks said aggravating the already weak economy would be worse than the recession that the country just exited. According to him, the ugly situation would have taken off but for the steady crude oil price and production. Renowned economist, Bismarck Rewane, said he was sure that from now onwards, the prices of equities would not come back to normal until the elections are over and the prices of the stocks begin to regain.

“Everybody knows that it is a four-year cycle. The investors have already discounted the politically-tensed situations in their risk premium. What would really affect the market more is the international interest rate, like that of the United States,” he said.

But an analyst, Egie Akpata, told The Guardian that the market confidence had been low for long due to economic issues, stressing that the current political stand-off could only worsen it.

“But I cannot estimate how far bad it can go. Of course, the stock market is small compared to the bond market, it will always take the hit. The stock market is the most sensitive, losing about N2 billion daily, against N7 billion daily gains sometime in the past. Clearly, something is not right.

“The foreign investors know that our elections are messy and credibility is not just a consideration and they have been leaving before now.”Dr. Olalekan Obademi said the invasion was a recipe for divestments and cautious approach, as the “political climate now is not facing a specific direction.”

“There is a lot of uncertainty about the country and 2019. Any serious investor is likely to hold back investments until the direction, in terms of governance, is clear. There is so much apprehension now about the elections and daily outlook is not helping the situation.

“The perception is that democracy is under threat and especially, Nigerians are apprehensive. Investments and investors are averse to uncertainty. In fact, any perceived dictatorship in an environment automatically switches players to cautious mode.”

Meanwhile, in another round of intervention, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected $210million into the inter-bank foreign exchange market to ensure the availability of forex and also meet customers’ requests in various segments.

At the trading yesterday, the CBN offered $100 million to authorised dealers in the wholesale segment of the market, while the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) segment received $55 million. Customers requiring foreign exchange for invisibles such as tuition fees, medical payments and Basic Travel Allowance (BTA), among others, were allocated $55 million.

The bank’s Acting Director, Corporate Communications Department (CCD), Mr. Isaac Okorafor, confirmed the figures and reassured the public that the CBN would continue to intervene in the interbank foreign exchange market in line with its quest to sustain liquidity and maintain stability. He added that the steps taken so far by the apex bank in the management of forex had paid off, as reflected by reduction in the country’s import bills and accretion to its foreign reserves.

The naira exchange rate remained stable in the market, exchanging at an average of N360/$1 in the BDC segment.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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